GOLD PARABOLIC ARC DRAFT 1
WARNING - This is is just first draft to raise awareness of something that is not really favored to happen.
SUMMARY - So I've been talking about this zone, 01/10-03/08, 2024, as being gold bull market's last legit break out window. And today is 01/11, so we burn 1 day and that's fine. There are number of reasons why ranging from technically, to cyclically, to fiscally, to fundamentally. I am NOT going to get into any of that, but I will say this is the only period WHERE ALL OF THOSE THINGS LINE UP. All we need is a breakout setup.
SETUP PROBLEM - I have spent 3 weeks searching for that setup BUT IT NEVER CAME. Since long term cycles determine that this rally should take 8-9 weeks, EXCLUDING SETUP TIME, WE ARE OUT OF TIME to build a setup. The only way this would work, is somehow we are already in a setup and didn't know it. It just happens that today, we stumble into one by accident or maybe destiny, doesn't matter as long as it works. This is the parabolic arc setup, the only setup that doesn't require a setup in the first place. The only thing is it requires short and intermediate trend to be out of position. Check, check, check and check.
WILL GET INTO DETAILS LATER.
SUMMARY - So I've been talking about this zone, 01/10-03/08, 2024, as being gold bull market's last legit break out window. And today is 01/11, so we burn 1 day and that's fine. There are number of reasons why ranging from technically, to cyclically, to fiscally, to fundamentally. I am NOT going to get into any of that, but I will say this is the only period WHERE ALL OF THOSE THINGS LINE UP. All we need is a breakout setup.
SETUP PROBLEM - I have spent 3 weeks searching for that setup BUT IT NEVER CAME. Since long term cycles determine that this rally should take 8-9 weeks, EXCLUDING SETUP TIME, WE ARE OUT OF TIME to build a setup. The only way this would work, is somehow we are already in a setup and didn't know it. It just happens that today, we stumble into one by accident or maybe destiny, doesn't matter as long as it works. This is the parabolic arc setup, the only setup that doesn't require a setup in the first place. The only thing is it requires short and intermediate trend to be out of position. Check, check, check and check.
WILL GET INTO DETAILS LATER.
Note
THE LAST LAST CHANCE - I've already broke down what would happen if gold slides here and goes to 18xx. It would be September before we entertain this idea again. But that only fits long term regressive curves, DOESN'T FIT ANYTHING ELSE. So this is it. This is the last, last chance. So if it really happens, can't say it wasn't stylish, bc it's LATE AF!Note
HER'E'S THAT HOW THIS PATTERN MOVES:Note
HERE IS REGRESSION BREAKDOWN EXAMPLE:Note
6:26 PM ET, For tomorrow, expecting a moderate to flat day. Friday I mean.Note
9:26 PM ET ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TREND BREAKDOWN AND MULTIPLE EARLY EXTRAPOLATIONS:Note
1) for chart above:2) so I am being conservative with the curve to leave room for upside surprises
3) HOWEVER
4) I am already getting signals price sill exceed chart above's dark blue
5) so may be light blue route, but that will feature more vol
6) this buy and hold with first exit on 23rd-25th is what it looks like
7) that can also move closer to us
Note
9:58 PM ET, I am tired AF right now so:a) for chart above:
Note
b) normally, I would do daily binary for this zone (from here to Jan 30)c) let's see price do the dark blue move first and close tomorrow 2050-ish or higher
d) this I have signal for already
e) markets open Sunday but close Monday early at 8:30 AM ET for MLK DAY (when NY usually opens)
f) that dark blue takes us to Monday night
g) and I'll have daily binary maps from then
Note
h) if price intends to exceed my target of 2320 for 01/30 I) then we need to see the higher of the two resistance line get tagged
m) doesn't have to break but challenged before Monday night
n) why is that a big deal?
o) it's not, odds just don't favor right now
p) you want to see price challenge the odds a bit
q) the base of the black wave in charts at top and near the top, is now saying something like that
r) let's see follow through
Note
s) for right now, looks like price will take out that first box tonightNote
t) watch for this toou) why?
v) bc we are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LATE
w) we are actually 4 days short of the usual size now and we are still at the floor
x) if the gold gods believe in justice, we get that move started tomorrow
Note
y) I know it doesn't look an arc, but still a "stretched linear regressive arc" z) that would take a 72 close
Note
01/11 11:56 PM ET. IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN THE WAY WE WANT:Note
a) for chart above...b) we will know when we get to 01/24 or 25 i,
c) in both scenarios we will trace big and spike
d) blue route WOULD BE HIGHER overall
e) gray route WOULD BE WEAKER especially with the second leg
f) why does this matter?
h) this is the "opening hand" for this still to be proven "bull market"
i) it determines the final high in 2025
Note
j) for those that care, what "reconciliation" is..k) so you take all trends x, 2x, 4x, 8x... (base 2)
l) AND I MEAN ALL
m) ex: 20, 40, 80, 160...; 30, 60, 120, 240..., 50, 100, 200, 400... and so on
n) if you do that it "suggests" the blue route
p) then cross check with x, 3x, 9x, 27x (base 3)
q) ex: 20, 60, 180, 540, and so on..
r) if you do that, it agrees with the first move to the 01/24-25
s) but it says no way on the second move EVEN IF extends as high blue...
t) so when I say trends disagree, that's what I mean
u) I'm so tired I forgot nobody cares about this stuff...
Note
01/12 2:20 AM a) my call for tomorrow:
b) low 2028 high 2077 close 2070
Note
01/12 9:01 AM ET, 2055.xxa) 8 hours til aftermarkets close
b) good that we didn't test the the low before moving up
c) so while it looks good now, we need that 2072 close and we need it more than I thought last night
d) why?
e) remember NFP, 2064, and closed weak AF
g) the curves were late LAST WEEK, they are late AF x10 now
h) I loooked through each trend map individually last night
i) didn't love it
j) so let's see end of day
k) if it has a shot, I'll do daily binary for Monday night
Note
9:31 58.xxl) so last weekend, I said it should move Sunday
m) Monday was do or die
n) and last route to entertain was Tuesday
o) I said that because the short term and intermediate was going to get really weak
p) I did say "parabolic arc" in the title for this
q) but I also said to watch out for the 2070s move and this would qualify as a linear regression stretched arc
r) "this is a really stretched interpretation" even as it's 2061 as I type...
s) there's so many holes in this that we need to hit 2077 and close 2072 and above
t) "to entertain it", not to to qualify it
u) so there it is... especially for those the guy who's sold on the story already
Note
12:08 2046.xx as expected weak AF:Note
a) there has to be something that says otherwiseb) it can still go gradually up from here to next Wed
c) but now there's another sell off already scheduled for Wed-Thurs
d) so until there's trend-breaking price action
e) THIS POST HAS ENDED
f) don't really want to make another one
Note
01/12 7:02 PM POST MARKET WRAP UP1) ok so..
2) I am told by the people who follow cycles that the breakout window
3) 01/10-03/08/24...
4) is just a break out window
5) not a "massive rally window"
6) so that's 2 months, first month for break out (01/10-02/10)
7) second month for retest (02/10-03/10)
8) that means 01/10 is when we BEGIN to setup for break out
9) so that means we hit 2080-90 and then zig zag between tha 2050 UNTIL 01/26
10) LIKE THIS:
Note
Note
11) so what? 12) so one more "last setup"
13 but this time because we are so out of position
14) price must spend the entire time in that box or higher
15) AND zig zag near 2080-2095 for much of the time like this:
Note
Note
16. I can also telll you if price sticks to that box...17. that will check all the boxes
Note
7:52 pm so then:Note
1/14 4:09 PM ET: HERE IS CURRENT FORECAST:
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.