Goldman: Strong Asia Session Gold Buying with the 8th Consecutive Overnight Rally; 4,500/oz a Tail Risk Scenario
By eFXdata — Apr 16 - 10:30 AM
Synopsis:
Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts.
Key Points:
Asian Buying Momentum:
Spot gold broke Monday’s highs, marking eight consecutive overnight rallies driven by strong Asia session demand.
Elevated Volumes:
Trading volumes are currently running ~40% above the 10-session average at this time of day.
Positioning Still Roomy:
CFTC, ETF, and open interest data indicate speculative positioning is not yet extended, suggesting room for further upside.
Goldman’s Upgraded Outlook:
GS recently raised their 2025 year-end forecast to $3,700/oz, citing:
Increased ETF inflows
Continued central bank buying
Elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty
Tail Scenario:
If the Fed is forced to subordinate policy due to debt concerns or US reserve currency shifts, GS sees gold potentially spiking to $4,500/oz.
Conclusion:
Goldman views the current rally as sustainable, with strong physical demand and investor inflows from Asia underpinning the move. Positioning remains far from euphoric, supporting their constructive outlook, while macro risks could trigger a super-spike scenario in the months ahead.
Source:
efxdata.com/insights/cc671aca04bd84ceff1f556e99be2230.html
=============================================================================
(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per troy ounce (toz), citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows.
The investment bank, whose previous year-end forecast was $3,300, said it expected central bank demand to average 80 tonnes per month, up from its previous assumption of 70 tonnes and well above the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tonnes per month.
The bank also noted a surge in gold ETF inflows, driven by fears of a recession, with its economists assigning a 45% probability to a U.S. recession in the next 12 months.
Spot gold has continued its rally from the last year, hitting multiple record highs and gaining more than 23% so far this year. Bullion breached $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday. [GOL/]
The bank's analysis also said that in the medium-term, the risks to their upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside. If central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, Goldman estimates that gold could reach $3,810/toz by end-2025. On the ETF side, if a recession occurs, ETF inflows could revert back to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end.
However, if economic growth outperforms expectations due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely revert back to their rates-based prediction, with year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz, Goldman said.
The following is a list of the latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agen Annual Price Price Targets
---------------------------------------------------
cy Forecasts 2025 2026
Goldman Sachs $3,295 $3,700 by 2025
year-end
Commerzbank $3,000
HSBC $3,015 $2,915 $2,750 by 2027 and
$2,350 long-term
Deutsche Bank $3,139 $3,700 $3,350 by year-end
ANZ * $2,763 $2,795 $2,900 by end-2025
Macquarie $2,951 $2,675 -
UBS $3,500 - $3,000 by end-2025
BofA $3,063 $3,350 -
JP Morgan $2,863 $3,019 $3,000 by Q4 2025
Morgan Stanley $2,763 $2,450 -
Citi Research $2,900 $2,800 0-3 month forecast at
$3,200 and 6-12 month
forecast at $3,000;
$3,500 by end-2025
*end-of-period forecasts
Source: marketscreener.com/quote/index/S-P-GSCI-SILVER-INDEX-46869173/news/Goldman-Sachs-raises-year-end-gold-forecast-to-3-700-oz-49444726/?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
By eFXdata — Apr 16 - 10:30 AM
Synopsis:
Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts.
Key Points:
Asian Buying Momentum:
Spot gold broke Monday’s highs, marking eight consecutive overnight rallies driven by strong Asia session demand.
Elevated Volumes:
Trading volumes are currently running ~40% above the 10-session average at this time of day.
Positioning Still Roomy:
CFTC, ETF, and open interest data indicate speculative positioning is not yet extended, suggesting room for further upside.
Goldman’s Upgraded Outlook:
GS recently raised their 2025 year-end forecast to $3,700/oz, citing:
Increased ETF inflows
Continued central bank buying
Elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty
Tail Scenario:
If the Fed is forced to subordinate policy due to debt concerns or US reserve currency shifts, GS sees gold potentially spiking to $4,500/oz.
Conclusion:
Goldman views the current rally as sustainable, with strong physical demand and investor inflows from Asia underpinning the move. Positioning remains far from euphoric, supporting their constructive outlook, while macro risks could trigger a super-spike scenario in the months ahead.
Source:
efxdata.com/insights/cc671aca04bd84ceff1f556e99be2230.html
=============================================================================
(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per troy ounce (toz), citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows.
The investment bank, whose previous year-end forecast was $3,300, said it expected central bank demand to average 80 tonnes per month, up from its previous assumption of 70 tonnes and well above the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tonnes per month.
The bank also noted a surge in gold ETF inflows, driven by fears of a recession, with its economists assigning a 45% probability to a U.S. recession in the next 12 months.
Spot gold has continued its rally from the last year, hitting multiple record highs and gaining more than 23% so far this year. Bullion breached $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday. [GOL/]
The bank's analysis also said that in the medium-term, the risks to their upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside. If central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, Goldman estimates that gold could reach $3,810/toz by end-2025. On the ETF side, if a recession occurs, ETF inflows could revert back to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end.
However, if economic growth outperforms expectations due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely revert back to their rates-based prediction, with year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz, Goldman said.
The following is a list of the latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agen Annual Price Price Targets
---------------------------------------------------
cy Forecasts 2025 2026
Goldman Sachs $3,295 $3,700 by 2025
year-end
Commerzbank $3,000
HSBC $3,015 $2,915 $2,750 by 2027 and
$2,350 long-term
Deutsche Bank $3,139 $3,700 $3,350 by year-end
ANZ * $2,763 $2,795 $2,900 by end-2025
Macquarie $2,951 $2,675 -
UBS $3,500 - $3,000 by end-2025
BofA $3,063 $3,350 -
JP Morgan $2,863 $3,019 $3,000 by Q4 2025
Morgan Stanley $2,763 $2,450 -
Citi Research $2,900 $2,800 0-3 month forecast at
$3,200 and 6-12 month
forecast at $3,000;
$3,500 by end-2025
*end-of-period forecasts
Source: marketscreener.com/quote/index/S-P-GSCI-SILVER-INDEX-46869173/news/Goldman-Sachs-raises-year-end-gold-forecast-to-3-700-oz-49444726/?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.