Short-Term Range Support Vulnerable on XAU/USD
Spot gold, in $ terms, chalked up its largest one-week advance since March last week, adding +1.6%.
The end of June witnessed the yellow metal discover a (technical) floor from a descending resistance-turned-support line taken from the high of $2,070 on the weekly timeframe. Notably, this was reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) finding support off the 50.00 centreline, which is common in markets that are trending higher (we have been higher on the weekly scale since bottoming at $1,614). I do not see any obvious resistance on the weekly chart until $2,049. However, $1,957 may prove troublesome for bulls this week (the decision point formed before price navigated lower and tested the descending support).
Joining the weekly timeframe’s descending support was support on the daily timeframe marked at $1,895. As you can see, since recoiling from the aforementioned level, price recently overthrew the 50-day simple moving average at $1,954. While closing north of the 50-day SMA is considered by some to be a bullish signal, we have simultaneously established an ‘alternate’ AB=CD resistance formation, delivering a resistance zone between $1,971 and $1,956 (1.618% and 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratios). Therefore, this could attract bearish hands this week, in line with the daily chart’s early downtrend, and target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios at $1,936 and $1,920, respectively (derived from legs A-D).
From a shorter-term perspective, you will note that the second half of last week entered a consolidation phase on the H1 chart between resistance from $1,962 and support at $1,954. Nearby levels outside the aforesaid range to be aware of this week are resistance at $1,967 and support at $1,948.
So, acknowledging weekly price may turn from $1,957, in addition to daily price testing the mettle of an alternate AB=CD resistance zone between $1,971 and $1,956 (as well as trending south), a breakout below the H1 timeframe’s range between $1,962 and $1,954 could be seen. H1 support from $1,948 will likely demand attention should the above come to fruition, with further selling potentially shining light on H1 support at $1,938, which closely aligns with the initial support target on the daily chart at $1,936.
The end of June witnessed the yellow metal discover a (technical) floor from a descending resistance-turned-support line taken from the high of $2,070 on the weekly timeframe. Notably, this was reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) finding support off the 50.00 centreline, which is common in markets that are trending higher (we have been higher on the weekly scale since bottoming at $1,614). I do not see any obvious resistance on the weekly chart until $2,049. However, $1,957 may prove troublesome for bulls this week (the decision point formed before price navigated lower and tested the descending support).
Joining the weekly timeframe’s descending support was support on the daily timeframe marked at $1,895. As you can see, since recoiling from the aforementioned level, price recently overthrew the 50-day simple moving average at $1,954. While closing north of the 50-day SMA is considered by some to be a bullish signal, we have simultaneously established an ‘alternate’ AB=CD resistance formation, delivering a resistance zone between $1,971 and $1,956 (1.618% and 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratios). Therefore, this could attract bearish hands this week, in line with the daily chart’s early downtrend, and target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios at $1,936 and $1,920, respectively (derived from legs A-D).
From a shorter-term perspective, you will note that the second half of last week entered a consolidation phase on the H1 chart between resistance from $1,962 and support at $1,954. Nearby levels outside the aforesaid range to be aware of this week are resistance at $1,967 and support at $1,948.
So, acknowledging weekly price may turn from $1,957, in addition to daily price testing the mettle of an alternate AB=CD resistance zone between $1,971 and $1,956 (as well as trending south), a breakout below the H1 timeframe’s range between $1,962 and $1,954 could be seen. H1 support from $1,948 will likely demand attention should the above come to fruition, with further selling potentially shining light on H1 support at $1,938, which closely aligns with the initial support target on the daily chart at $1,936.
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