Technical analysis update: Gold (21st December 2021)
Updated
During the summer 2021 we expressed our belief that gold would end up trading within the range between 1750 USD/oz. and 1835 USD/oz. for an indefinite amount of time. We also noted that the bullish trend of higher degree was weakening and becoming neutral. Currently, gold trades slightly below 1800 USD/oz. Despite gold's sideways moving price action we continue to maintain a bullish view on gold, especially in the long-term. We expect an eventual bullish breakout from the neutral zone; and, at the same time, we assume such breakout will coincide with resumption of the bullish trend of higher degree. Additionally, we think this resumption of uptend will culminate in a new all time high for gold in 2022. Our view is supported by a combination of fundamental and technical factors.Main bullish drivers for gold are persistent high inflation in the U.S. and decrease in quantitative easing program (by the FED) which poses substantial threat to further rise in the general stock market. Additionally, we think the FED will be unable to raise interest rates three times in 2022. Instead, we expect the FED to backpedal on its current plans (as it did in its latest hiking cycle between 2015-2018).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows 20-day Simple Moving Average (blue) and 50-day SMA (red). Many false crossovers are observable which is indicative of the neutral trend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD remains in the bearish area. However, it points to the upside. We will observe it closely in the following days and we will watch out for bullish crossover above 0 points. We expect such a phenomenon to be accompanied by further rise in price. Stochastic oscillates in the upper area which is bullish but it currently points to the downside. RSI started to rise recently which is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions. Though ADX remains relatively low.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily chart ADX based on XAUUSD. It shows relatively low value which suggests the prevailing trend is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all neutral. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions but ADX contains low value.
Support and resistance
Closest support of tremendous importance sits at 1750 USD and breakout below this price level would force us to reassess our bullish notion. Next important support lies at 1721 USD while the major support level lies at 1676 USD. Closest resistance of high importance sits at 1835 USD. Other important resistance levels are at 1916 USD, 1959 USD, and 1965 USD. Major resistance level lies at an all time high of 2075 USD.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily graph of XAUUSD. It depicts two alternative scenarios that current gold's setup allows.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows 20-day Simple Moving Average (blue) and 50-day SMA (red). Many false crossovers are observable which is indicative of the neutral trend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD remains in the bearish area. However, it points to the upside. We will observe it closely in the following days and we will watch out for bullish crossover above 0 points. We expect such a phenomenon to be accompanied by further rise in price. Stochastic oscillates in the upper area which is bullish but it currently points to the downside. RSI started to rise recently which is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions. Though ADX remains relatively low.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily chart ADX based on XAUUSD. It shows relatively low value which suggests the prevailing trend is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all neutral. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions but ADX contains low value.
Support and resistance
Closest support of tremendous importance sits at 1750 USD and breakout below this price level would force us to reassess our bullish notion. Next important support lies at 1721 USD while the major support level lies at 1676 USD. Closest resistance of high importance sits at 1835 USD. Other important resistance levels are at 1916 USD, 1959 USD, and 1965 USD. Major resistance level lies at an all time high of 2075 USD.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily graph of XAUUSD. It depicts two alternative scenarios that current gold's setup allows.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Trade active
Gold continues to climb higher. At the moment, it trades slightly below the upper bound of the netural zone. We await bullish breakout above the neutral zone and resumption of an uptrend.
Disclaimer
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