ROAD TO 3850, DECEMBER LONG 2630s to 2820s

Updated

This is most complete draft finish minutes ago. This is published for our group to track the move ending 12/30. Note that the 12/30, 2820s exit is simultaneously the entry for JANUARY SHORT to 2540s. 190 points in 12 days is pretty damn good reason to post this.

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Trade active

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6) 3:44 PM ET, I am aware of the 2470 pattern where this leg continues to 2470
7) the math I have continues to say 2775-2830 is favored vs 2470 for 12/30 close

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3:47 PM ET, until this math changes...
a) I am still looking for an entry long to 2775-2830 for 12/30 close
b) but I am gun shy and want to see the first move that sets up the reversal up
c) b/c while I have very strong confidence in 2775-2830 for 12/30
d) strategy requires that we wait for the entry

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3:56 PM ET, I took entry at 2592.xx with 2586 stop.
a) if it's going to move, it's got to move from here
b) the math is worth the risk bc even with 2775 ceiling...
c) it's still 180+pts from here

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4:09 PM ET, so that's my entry for this trade
a) bc I have conviction that my math is correct
b) and that worst case scenario is 2775-ish for 12/30
c) will add notes as we go

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d) and for the record, I AM BEING GREEDY HERE BC ...
e) the math says I'M SUPPOSED TO BE GREEDY HERE
f) you can always wait until 2618 to buy, etc...

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4:17 PM ET, I am looking for 2638 before midnight, New York time.

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7:50 PM ET, 2594.62... STILL IN, STILL CHASING 2775 by 12/30
a) so I have strong conviction in this LONG FROM ENTRY 2592.XX
b) mathematically speaking, WORST CASE SCENARIO I CAN SEE IS 2730-2740
c) I am still hunting for 2775, but it's obvious that stalling under 2600 means ...
d) I have to lower high target for 12/30 as time goes by
e) but as of RIGHT NOW, I HAVE TOTAL CONVICTION IN THIS LONG
f) despite price not moving since I took entry at 2592

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g) continuing in chart above....
h) and this trade should really be a hold to and maybe even through 12/30

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9:55 PM ET, 12/18, 2609.XX after tagging 2618...
a) if you replay chart at top
b) price have broken the dotted line to mark 2618
c) earlier, I said if you want to wait, you can wait for 2618 to entry
d) obviously this makes no difference to me personally...
e) as of right now, I have to believe the 12/30 ceiling is between 2775 and 2792
f) should momentum give me a reason to raise that number, I will
g) but like in chart above, price have to EXCEED BLUE AND MOVE TO CATCH YELLOW ROUTE
h) and almost have to OUTPERFORM YELLOW ROUTE in some stretch to raise that ceiling again
i) in a way, to make up for lost time...
j) otherwise, it is hard for me to raise this 12/30 ceiling past 2775-2792

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k) but I SHOULD SAY THAT THE SETUP EXISTS FOR PRICE TO CATCH YELLOW ROUTE
l) so we will see where we are Friday and Monday

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6) the biggest issue is when do we take out first box?
7) in chart above needs to be before X-mas

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8) 5:26 AM ET, here's what I see in chart above:
a) in my humbled opinion 2770s "is in the bag"
b) the questions are can we make 2790, 2800s, 2830, and 2855-2865
c) as OF THIS MINUTE IN TIME, the door is WIDE OPEN
d) but for January 1st to January 6th ceiling 2865
e) but momentum, or speed, is all that matters for this move
f) it's not completely obvious to me that this run should extend after 12/30

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g) so at 2621.xx at 5:30 AM ET in chart above with the BIG RED ARROW
h) my expectation to catch up to yellow route in chart at top is 110% alive and live
i) but the sooner the better if we want 2865

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3:44 PM ET, 2598.XX, back in at 2596.75 and ....
1) this thing is going to have to move up significantly by 10 AM tomorrow
2) if it doesn't, I don't know where this can go bc we everything I have says it should go up
3) at some point, I have to eliminate everything above 2830 bc it doesn't make sense
4) until then...
5) I am back in it 2586 stop and STILL STRONG CONVICTION FOR 2775-2830 ON 12/30

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12:32 PM ET, 12/20, I am busy so I can't update but:
6) so I am still in it and still STRONG CONVICTION FOR 2765 with 2823 high range
7) that's all I got time for...
8) will add notes later today

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12/23, 11:39 PM ET, 2618.77, hard stop 2607.50
1) we are at the last possible late route for this move
2) which now has dropped the ceiling down to 2775-ish
3) a break under 2607 again would mean something else

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4) until that happens, I am still in December long

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12/24/24, 1:15 PM HET, SO HERE'S WHAT I AM LOOKING AT AND WHY I HAVEN'T POSTED IT...
1) this drop and stall under 2630 CANNOT PREVENT MOVE TO 2775 AND LIKELY HIGHER
2) but the timing of the high is no longer obvious
3) last week on discord I said I had evidence of a stronger move for June high
4) but didn't want to bring it up until it was statistically obvious bc every time it was previously brought up...
5) it was wrong
6) so back to our overall pattern
a) we are looking for rally higher
b) then a huge check down
c) then ALL THE WAY UP
7) so what has changed??
8) what we have is an UP SHIFT OF THE ENTIRE PATTERN

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9) I wrote some notes that didn't get posted
10) to summarize:
a) yellow arrow is pointing at the break of the blue line
b) price can keep stalling here for a while with 1 more possible dip to 2592 (may or may not)
c) the longer price stalls here, the further the blue arrows move
d) meaning the the 2800+/-25 keeps getting pushed forward
e) which in turn push the red arrows forward AND UP, raising the the floor WAY UP
11) so the Jan and February lows now look like both in February
12) and look like it's 2592-2600 floor
13) this ultimately raises JUNE HIGH but I am not getting in to that until at least March
14) so all in all, TOTAL CONVICTION FOR 2775-2825
15) with one more possible dip to 2592 before blue line breaks

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16) so if you wanted to go long gold on a 10 month basis
17) the entry is basically now and February 2592-2650
18) with price trading 2616 as I type

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6) continuing in chart above, if the floor is rising that much...
7) that means the next high would land 1/31 or 2/01
8) but we are at the blue line again, and IT WILL BREAK
9) the unknown is WHEN IN THE NEXT WEEK?
10) it could be tomorrow, but I am not holding my breath

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11:04 AM ET, 12/26, I saw 2638 moments ago and….

11) does this increase odds for a 12/30-31 high?
12) no because time until 12/31 is falling quickly
13) meaning the sharpness of the move up must be higher…
14) in other words the slope of the move up must increase more than
15) the amount of time falling
16) so route not dead, but odds of being on time at 2775
17) actually fell a little bit

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18) but still alive
19) again, not holding my breath for it
20) but it’s not like it would be a surprise
21) verdict same: LONG UNTIL 2775-2825

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22) but realize that raw odds favor a slow route
23) unless 2700 get hit soon
24) and I think soon here would be defined as 16 hours out

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25) chart above, dark blue is favorite no doubt
26) but needs detailing

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27) and that detailing looks like this:

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28) so in chart above this looks like
29) more stalling until rejection at 2700 ish
30) that would be on 12/31

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7:52 PM ET, 12/27: TO SUM IT UP:

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1) in chart above, as stated previously, the floor is now 2585-2630
2) we are MOVING FOR 2800+/-25 before the check down to what I think is 2630
3) but could be as low as 2585
4) so we are still in "December long" which is now January long
5) not much to add until at least 2680

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01/01/2025, DRAGGING AT BLUE LINE CAUSING FORWARD UPSHIFT!!

1) so first here's where we are now
2) with some highlights to clarify the differences

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3) so markets are closed globally today as I type at 12:33 PM ET
4) and price is a few points above the bold blue line
5) the Monday checkdown to 2605 and 2595 was a possibility discussed last week
6) what this is doing is PUSHING THE HIGH INTO FEBRUARY
7) so in chart above the light blue highlights were most recent extrapolations
8) the darker blue was the longer term hi-light from days before that
9) YELLOW IS WHERE WE ARE NOW AND...
10) the bold black dashed line is coming into play now
11) implying that the THE NEXT SHIFT WOULD RAISE THE FLOOR FOR MARCH
12) which is now already at 2615-ish and more likely to be 2630-2640
13) and could be 2650 AND HIGHER
14) so the arrows above....

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15) which starts with the yellow arrow at 2380-2400 and kept rising
16) was TO MARK THE ENTRY FOR THE RUN TO 3850
17) which originally was late January and bled into February and now mid March
18) now has a 30% chance the March entry is above 2630
19) the black highlight shows what the next shift CAN RAISE THE FLOOR ABOVE 2650
20) so that means THE ENTRY FOR 3850 WAS 2595-2605

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21) this is marked by the BIG BLACK ARROW
22) that is what has changed since I added notes last
23) beyond that, we are still long to 2800+/-25 which now looks like 2825+/-25
24) on an intermediate basis before the high leverage March entry around 2630

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01/01, 2:22 PM ET, so WE ARE FORCED INTO FIRST ENTRY FOR 3850, and so this post has ended

1) and the following post is the replacement from here until we exit 2800s
2) after which we wait for entry before March FOMC circa 2640s
3) and here you go:

RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM, ENTRY FOR 3850 IS BASICALLY NOW

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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