Trade set up - Waiting for a pullback in the pair and confirmation of support before entering long, as this enables us to manage risk in a better way. However, aggressive traders can look at longs at the current market price. Stops set at $1235 and a take profit at $1262.
Why we like this trade - We've had gold on 'high-watch' for some time now and given the recent break of $1238, and the 38.2 Fib, our bias on the pair is bullish. As interest rate expectations are being priced out of the dollar, we see the pairs inverse relationship playing out. Furthermore, the global economic outlook looks to be slowing down, Indices are off to shaky start, and all of this plays into the feedback loop of a strong XAUUSD. This week's economic data will play a pivotal role in how this pair trades as US CPI and Retail Sales are released - softer numbers here could start signalling a sell-off in USD and capital flows into safe-haven assets.
Technically, the pair is currently in the upper end of a bullish channel with momentum indicators signalling exhaustion in the current price, hence a pullback and re-entry.
Disclaimer.
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