April’s U.S. CPI came in below expectations, cooling down hopes for Fed rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar index has also eased off its one-month high, while ongoing geopolitical concerns continue to back gold’s rise. On Wednesday morning (May 14), spot gold traded in a narrow range around $3,245 per ounce.
Inflation Data
April’s U.S. CPI rose only 0.2%, less than the expected 0.3%. This boosted gold as it doesn’t reduce the chances of Fed rate cuts, with markets still expecting cuts to continue in September. However, inflation could pick up again in the coming months due to tariff effects, so many investors still see gold as a solid hedge against inflation.
On Tuesday, both Do Nam Trung and Trump called on the Fed to cut rates.
Geopolitical Situation
Geopolitical tensions remain a strong support for gold. Talks between Ukraine and Russia are still uncertain, and although the India-Pakistan conflict has paused with a ceasefire, tensions haven’t eased much. These risks keep gold’s upside potential alive if markets face sudden shocks.
Gold Outlook
Gold faces three main challenges:
Progress in U.S.-China trade talks — even with a 90-day truce, tariffs remain in place.
Fed monetary policy — mild inflation data could pave the way for rate cuts.
Global geopolitical risks — especially the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and India-Pakistan tensions.
There’s little major economic data today. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will attend a NATO meeting to discuss security priorities and the Russia-Ukraine war, while several Fed officials will speak, so investors should stay alert.
Technical Analysis (XAU/USD)
On the daily chart, gold is trading within a narrow range with short-term bearish pressure from the 21-day EMA. The 0.50 Fibonacci retracement near $3,228 is key support limiting further drops. If this level breaks, gold could fall toward $3,163.
For a new uptrend, gold needs to climb above the EMA21 and break through the $3,300 level.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 3,228 – 3,200 – 3,163 USD
Resistance: 3,245 – 3,292 – 3,300 USD
Wishing you a productive and successful trading day!
Inflation Data
April’s U.S. CPI rose only 0.2%, less than the expected 0.3%. This boosted gold as it doesn’t reduce the chances of Fed rate cuts, with markets still expecting cuts to continue in September. However, inflation could pick up again in the coming months due to tariff effects, so many investors still see gold as a solid hedge against inflation.
On Tuesday, both Do Nam Trung and Trump called on the Fed to cut rates.
Geopolitical Situation
Geopolitical tensions remain a strong support for gold. Talks between Ukraine and Russia are still uncertain, and although the India-Pakistan conflict has paused with a ceasefire, tensions haven’t eased much. These risks keep gold’s upside potential alive if markets face sudden shocks.
Gold Outlook
Gold faces three main challenges:
Progress in U.S.-China trade talks — even with a 90-day truce, tariffs remain in place.
Fed monetary policy — mild inflation data could pave the way for rate cuts.
Global geopolitical risks — especially the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and India-Pakistan tensions.
There’s little major economic data today. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will attend a NATO meeting to discuss security priorities and the Russia-Ukraine war, while several Fed officials will speak, so investors should stay alert.
Technical Analysis (XAU/USD)
On the daily chart, gold is trading within a narrow range with short-term bearish pressure from the 21-day EMA. The 0.50 Fibonacci retracement near $3,228 is key support limiting further drops. If this level breaks, gold could fall toward $3,163.
For a new uptrend, gold needs to climb above the EMA21 and break through the $3,300 level.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 3,228 – 3,200 – 3,163 USD
Resistance: 3,245 – 3,292 – 3,300 USD
Wishing you a productive and successful trading day!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.