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Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Short

GOLD → Retests of global support. Where can it lead to?

By RLinda
Updated
XAUUSD opens lower on Monday and is testing 2025 for a breakout. Technically, gold is weaker than the dollar as regulators continue to support the index. Fundamentally, the gold market is only watching the dollar's behavior.

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The dollar index is consolidating after a micro rally, but both technically and fundamentally the index may strengthen. The market sentiment is changing: traders are now betting that the Fed will not start cutting rates until May, while earlier it was March.
Gold is in a key consolidation range: 2052 - 2018 (the boundaries are marked on the D1 chart). Anything can happen in relation to the boundaries (false breakout, rebound), as the market is trying to gather the necessary amount of liquidity by any means. But, if you look closely, you can see that the price is forming a retest of the ascending support line. The chances of the support being broken continue to rise.

  • The trigger zone is below 2018. A break of this support and the formation of consolidation below this level could finally turn the market around and direct the accumulated potential towards a bearish distribution.
  • But! Since gold is currently in a range, we have a resistance level, a break of which could give the market an opportunity for growth: this is the 2025-2030 area.


Resistance levels: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2050
Support levels: 2018.5, 2016, 2004

Technically, a bearish trend is forming, on d1 price continues to test support for a breakout on the back of a strengthening dollar. I think such preconditions may hint at a possible fall

DXY GOLD GC1! MGC1!

Regards R. Linda!
Note
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Chart PatternsDXYFibonacci RetracementFLATFundamental AnalysisGC1! (Gold Futures)GoldSupport and ResistanceTrend AnalysisTrend Line BreakXAUUSDZigzag
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