This video summarizes the key scenarios and technical outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe, integrating both Fibonacci-based projections and macro fundamentals.
Core Setup
Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276).
A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move.
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets:
TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8%
Scenario 2: Correction First
Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to:
TP1: $2,920
TP2: $2,650
If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected.
Macro Alignment
Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid.
Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold.
Inverse correlation with DXY:
DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold
DXY above 100 → signals correction
Effect on Altcoins
If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins.
If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold.
This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
Core Setup
Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276).
A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move.
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets:
TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8%
Scenario 2: Correction First
Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to:
TP1: $2,920
TP2: $2,650
If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected.
Macro Alignment
Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid.
Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold.
Inverse correlation with DXY:
DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold
DXY above 100 → signals correction
Effect on Altcoins
If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins.
If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold.
This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.