#Gold/USD #XAUUSD - shot-term #analysis (bullish scenario)
Updated
This is a short-term analysis for Gold (bullish scenario).
Due to fundamental reasons (Iran conflict, trade tariffs and currency #wars) there is a strong demand for #safe-haven #assets like #Gold, #Silver and #Bitcoin. Therefore, fundamentally I´m very bullish.
Gold could be in a wave 5 (on the higher timeframe) which consists of 3 impulse waves (1,3,5) and 2 corrective waves (2,4) in a lower timeframe. Currently gold is experiencing a pullback (wave 2 in form of a A-B-C correction). Yesterday gold dropped very fast in just a few hours because it was very overbought on the H4 and 1D TF. Buyers may come back on the H4 TF and if RSI (green) and wave trend oscillator trend line (red) will hold support then a further pump to the upside (B-wave) will occur before we go further down to about $1544.- (end of A-B-C correction).
Momentum on the weekly TF indicate that there is still upward potential which could pump gold price into the major resistance zone above $1617! Therefore, after the ABC correction a new impulse wave (wave 3) could start which may establish new highs.
However, on the daily and monthly TF gold is very overbought and squeeze momentum indicator and MACD indicate momentum dissipation of the bulls.
Besides that price action is above the upper Bollinger band and therefore a correction to weekly SMA20 very likely.
In the LONG-term gold price should correct or come near to the monthly SMA50 and SMA100 which mean to about $1345-1300.- (this may take several months, hopefully we will see attractive entry prices in the end of 2020)
Looking at the SMA50/100 I have recognized that a GOLDEN CROSS is approaching which will cross somewhere mid 2020!
This will be very rare buying opportunity (last time we had a golden cross was 16 years ago!).
Be patient and do not FOMO. Let the price come to you!
I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only!
Due to fundamental reasons (Iran conflict, trade tariffs and currency #wars) there is a strong demand for #safe-haven #assets like #Gold, #Silver and #Bitcoin. Therefore, fundamentally I´m very bullish.
Gold could be in a wave 5 (on the higher timeframe) which consists of 3 impulse waves (1,3,5) and 2 corrective waves (2,4) in a lower timeframe. Currently gold is experiencing a pullback (wave 2 in form of a A-B-C correction). Yesterday gold dropped very fast in just a few hours because it was very overbought on the H4 and 1D TF. Buyers may come back on the H4 TF and if RSI (green) and wave trend oscillator trend line (red) will hold support then a further pump to the upside (B-wave) will occur before we go further down to about $1544.- (end of A-B-C correction).
Momentum on the weekly TF indicate that there is still upward potential which could pump gold price into the major resistance zone above $1617! Therefore, after the ABC correction a new impulse wave (wave 3) could start which may establish new highs.
However, on the daily and monthly TF gold is very overbought and squeeze momentum indicator and MACD indicate momentum dissipation of the bulls.
Besides that price action is above the upper Bollinger band and therefore a correction to weekly SMA20 very likely.
In the LONG-term gold price should correct or come near to the monthly SMA50 and SMA100 which mean to about $1345-1300.- (this may take several months, hopefully we will see attractive entry prices in the end of 2020)
Looking at the SMA50/100 I have recognized that a GOLDEN CROSS is approaching which will cross somewhere mid 2020!
This will be very rare buying opportunity (last time we had a golden cross was 16 years ago!).
Be patient and do not FOMO. Let the price come to you!
I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only!
Note
SHS formed on H4 chart (bearish reversal pattern)!Note
Wave 3 (inside the macro trend wave 5) has broken resistance at $1617 which is a very strong bullish signal! My new wave 3 target is $1684-1697!
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