Is Gold inside a super bear cycle?
Gold has completed 7 years since its 2011 all time high having established strong bearish bias over the last 5 years as it has repeatedly failed to cross above the 1,400 level.
This study compares Gold's 1980 2001 super bear cycle with the current bearish monthly candly sequence since the 2011 all time high.
If we harmonize both cycles' time scales we see they both made a first bottom. For 80s cycle it lost -67% since its 866 high while the 10s cycle dropped -45%. This is roughly a 33% difference between the two.
Assuming they will follow a similar timescale, we can price the 2011 bear cycle's bottom at 985 around November 2032. If the correlations are correct, this is when the new bullish cycle will start.
The only question mark is how high Gold can get until it bottoms at 985. The 80s cycle made a High in 1987 by increasing at a +82% rate. If we assume that the current cycle's High will be 67% (like the decrease from the top) of that High, then the price should rise around + 55% from the 2015 bottom, which is around 1,600.
All the above is a huge speculative scenario based only on historic volatility.
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This study compares Gold's 1980 2001 super bear cycle with the current bearish monthly candly sequence since the 2011 all time high.
If we harmonize both cycles' time scales we see they both made a first bottom. For 80s cycle it lost -67% since its 866 high while the 10s cycle dropped -45%. This is roughly a 33% difference between the two.
Assuming they will follow a similar timescale, we can price the 2011 bear cycle's bottom at 985 around November 2032. If the correlations are correct, this is when the new bullish cycle will start.
The only question mark is how high Gold can get until it bottoms at 985. The 80s cycle made a High in 1987 by increasing at a +82% rate. If we assume that the current cycle's High will be 67% (like the decrease from the top) of that High, then the price should rise around + 55% from the 2015 bottom, which is around 1,600.
All the above is a huge speculative scenario based only on historic volatility.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (tradingview.com/u/InvestingScope) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
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Over 15% return monthly on our Account Management Plan.
Account RECOVERY services.
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