This could be the call of the year. I have been trading for ten years. I have been forecasting gold prices for five years. After two and half years of forecasting (or 30 months), I already knew I what the long term meant for gold prices. Replay this chart from posted 11/10/2022, still hitting now, 28 months later:
This chart above posted November 2022 was actually developed in September of 2022, hence it was titled "Rumors of a (Fed) PIvot". Like usual, it took a series of drafts to arrive at. This draft is a long term draft for several years. When I attempted to draft "intermediately" since, the development process has been a long one, but think I have solved even without massive RAM/AI costs I once thought necessary to "cover the entire route tree for price action".
I have previously attempted several times to "give this series an ending it deserved" in terms of accuracy on an "intermediate basis". For example, this post from 10/07/24 or 169 days ago:
In chart above, not terrible, at least up to now. The one singular problem with forecasting is the sideways stall ultimately decides the "break of the pattern". Well what determines sideways stall? Answer is easy, REAL LIFE. In other words, the nature of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy driven by the eight FOMC meetings per year and unpredictable outcomes like Trump 2.0 tariffs cycle which - based on the evidence WE HAVE BY NOW - is forcing this high to outperform both charts above in the manner of the red highlight route in chart at top, 3900-ish in first week of August 2025 along with a 1000 point retrace due November 2025 and 500-600 point rebound to 3500-ish due February 2026.
Why should this route be the outcome? It was not going to be until the furious break of 2790. Replay this chart here from 01/07/25:
In chart above, this was 3H-bars that hit for 17 days, after which price took a mirror image on a slant upwards. While I continued posting about continuous new all time highs, I wrote soon after 2900 that this gear up for an "increase in the slope up" (or basically rallying faster) would result in a blow off top and a 1000 pt retrace. After several weeks of drafting intermediate routes to highs between 3666 and 4150 (and lows 2160 to 2580), the combined trends of ALL PERIODS TOGETHER state 3879 for the high and a contained 1000 point retrace. Chart at top has been reconciliated with various bar size so a move to 3400 for May high should hit almost perfect perfect. The only question left is will there be a blow off above 3900 to THE VERY TOP OF THE TOP CHANNEL. I doubt this because:
In chart above, a couple of more years is probably not a big deal. Can this chart get shifted, as others have before? Sure, the proof would have to be 41xx or 42xx in August or September which in turn requires 3450-3575 in May which in turn means price WOULD HAVE TO OUTPERFORM THIS POST:
Post above is "12 MONTH BASIS W/ SUPER DETAILING #8" to cover the move to 3278 by 04/11 posted in 1h bar but edited with many different bar sizes and trend ratios. I expect it to hit most of those boxes on the way up.
This chart above posted November 2022 was actually developed in September of 2022, hence it was titled "Rumors of a (Fed) PIvot". Like usual, it took a series of drafts to arrive at. This draft is a long term draft for several years. When I attempted to draft "intermediately" since, the development process has been a long one, but think I have solved even without massive RAM/AI costs I once thought necessary to "cover the entire route tree for price action".
I have previously attempted several times to "give this series an ending it deserved" in terms of accuracy on an "intermediate basis". For example, this post from 10/07/24 or 169 days ago:
In chart above, not terrible, at least up to now. The one singular problem with forecasting is the sideways stall ultimately decides the "break of the pattern". Well what determines sideways stall? Answer is easy, REAL LIFE. In other words, the nature of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy driven by the eight FOMC meetings per year and unpredictable outcomes like Trump 2.0 tariffs cycle which - based on the evidence WE HAVE BY NOW - is forcing this high to outperform both charts above in the manner of the red highlight route in chart at top, 3900-ish in first week of August 2025 along with a 1000 point retrace due November 2025 and 500-600 point rebound to 3500-ish due February 2026.
Why should this route be the outcome? It was not going to be until the furious break of 2790. Replay this chart here from 01/07/25:
In chart above, this was 3H-bars that hit for 17 days, after which price took a mirror image on a slant upwards. While I continued posting about continuous new all time highs, I wrote soon after 2900 that this gear up for an "increase in the slope up" (or basically rallying faster) would result in a blow off top and a 1000 pt retrace. After several weeks of drafting intermediate routes to highs between 3666 and 4150 (and lows 2160 to 2580), the combined trends of ALL PERIODS TOGETHER state 3879 for the high and a contained 1000 point retrace. Chart at top has been reconciliated with various bar size so a move to 3400 for May high should hit almost perfect perfect. The only question left is will there be a blow off above 3900 to THE VERY TOP OF THE TOP CHANNEL. I doubt this because:
In chart above, a couple of more years is probably not a big deal. Can this chart get shifted, as others have before? Sure, the proof would have to be 41xx or 42xx in August or September which in turn requires 3450-3575 in May which in turn means price WOULD HAVE TO OUTPERFORM THIS POST:
Post above is "12 MONTH BASIS W/ SUPER DETAILING #8" to cover the move to 3278 by 04/11 posted in 1h bar but edited with many different bar sizes and trend ratios. I expect it to hit most of those boxes on the way up.
Note
1) in post above, I will cover price semi-continuously as I usually do through 3100 on 3/272) and first check down on 3/28
3) this post you are reading is a 12-H bar chart that will not need commentary for weeks at a time
Note
LABLE FOR TOP IN CHART AT TOP TYPO: 3879 NOT 2879Note
3/28/25, 1:16 PM ET, so chart at top is 12-H basis1) so if you replay it, it's perfect perfect up to now
2) but not a big deal, because EACH BAR IS 12 HOURS
3) however post #8 was 1H bar, but detailed down to 8-min bar in places
4) so while for an intermediate target this chart would be strong
5) it is essentially useless on a daily basis
6) that we get on with post #9
7) you can find link top of this page (if you are on computer)
8) or end of these notes (if you are on your phone)
9) have a good weekend
Note
3/30/25 - 7:25 PM ET, THE MATH I HAVE NOW SAYS THIS DRAFT (CHART AT TOP) IS TOO SLOW: 1) so I have to do one more round of drafting
2) for what it's worth, you can follow this process with POST #9 HERE:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.