Gold has been following a positive trend throughout July, holding its ground impressively in the face of mixed macro data, especially since the "tariff sell-off" in early April. Despite recent geopolitical and inflation uncertainties or perhaps because of them, XAU/USD, respectively gold spot price, is up around 5% month-to-date – showing that demand for the metal as a store of value and portfolio hedge remains strong. Especially, OTC and direct selling from mines to companies and countries is not priced in, which signals huge upside potential.
In the background, central banks continue to accumulate gold, especially in emerging markets such as the so-called BRICS countries, reinforcing long-term support. The Fed’s expected policy shift and the ongoing global de-dollarization narrative both contribute to bullish structural tailwinds for gold in H2 2025 and further.
Fundamentally, gold is much more than just a safe haven with over 22,5 trillion in market capitalization (July 25). It plays a growing role in monetary strategy, wealth preservation, and even tech-related demand, especially with AI and clean energy sectors requiring rare metals. With uncertainty lingering and global debt ballooning, gold’s positive macro outlook looks intact.
From a technical standpoint, gold is showing clean bullish continuation patterns, with tight consolidations on declining volume – a strong signal of accumulation. On the daily chart, technically speaking, an ascending triangle sends positive signals for an upside breakout. Gold is now well above its 10, 21, and 50-day moving averages, surfing a healthy uptrend. Over the past few sessions, price has been coiling just below key resistance levels (around $3,400, near all-time highs), and volume has dried up significantly– often a setup for the next breakout leg.
If price breaks above that zone, we could see a move toward the $3,600–$3,800 and maybe $4,000 in 2026 range, where several analysts place their targets. This implies a potential upside of 5–15% from current levels. Importantly, the RSI remains in a neutral zone, giving further room for continuation without overheating.
Gold remains one of the few assets with a clear macro + technical alignment, and it’s attracting both institutional flows and long-term holders. With solid structure, bullish momentum, and supportive fundamentals, Q3 and Q4 could mark the next major leg higher for the metal.
In the background, central banks continue to accumulate gold, especially in emerging markets such as the so-called BRICS countries, reinforcing long-term support. The Fed’s expected policy shift and the ongoing global de-dollarization narrative both contribute to bullish structural tailwinds for gold in H2 2025 and further.
Fundamentally, gold is much more than just a safe haven with over 22,5 trillion in market capitalization (July 25). It plays a growing role in monetary strategy, wealth preservation, and even tech-related demand, especially with AI and clean energy sectors requiring rare metals. With uncertainty lingering and global debt ballooning, gold’s positive macro outlook looks intact.
From a technical standpoint, gold is showing clean bullish continuation patterns, with tight consolidations on declining volume – a strong signal of accumulation. On the daily chart, technically speaking, an ascending triangle sends positive signals for an upside breakout. Gold is now well above its 10, 21, and 50-day moving averages, surfing a healthy uptrend. Over the past few sessions, price has been coiling just below key resistance levels (around $3,400, near all-time highs), and volume has dried up significantly– often a setup for the next breakout leg.
If price breaks above that zone, we could see a move toward the $3,600–$3,800 and maybe $4,000 in 2026 range, where several analysts place their targets. This implies a potential upside of 5–15% from current levels. Importantly, the RSI remains in a neutral zone, giving further room for continuation without overheating.
Gold remains one of the few assets with a clear macro + technical alignment, and it’s attracting both institutional flows and long-term holders. With solid structure, bullish momentum, and supportive fundamentals, Q3 and Q4 could mark the next major leg higher for the metal.
Sic Parvis Magna - Greatness From Small Beginnings
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Sic Parvis Magna - Greatness From Small Beginnings
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.