Updated

Valid or fake out? - [1H] formation

Here is what I noticed—let me know if this aligns with your perspective or if you see something different.

📌 Wave Structure Alignment

Wave A → C → E show corrective declines within the contracting triangle.
Wave B → D retrace in a controlled manner, respecting contraction limits.
Price tightening near 3392 - 3360, signaling absorption before a breakout move.

📌 Fibonacci Relationship Check

Wave A retraced ~38.2% - 61.8% of the previous impulse move.
Wave B & C followed standard corrective depths (~50% - 78.6%), aligning with expected fib levels.
Wave E represents the final squeeze (~38.2% - 61.8% of Wave D), acting as a breakout trigger.

📌 Liquidity Positioning & Institutional Play

Bullish Breakout Potential: A strong push above 3417 could activate momentum toward 3440 - 3510, but only if absorption transitions into expansion.

Bearish Breakdown Risk: If price rejects 3392, expect a liquidity grab driving price into 3303 - 3370 range.

💡 Verdict: What to Watch Next

The triangle structure appears valid, following typical Fibonacci relationships and smart money positioning. However, the breakout direction remains uncertain—monitor liquidity behavior closely before confirming entry.

📌 Key Levels in Play

🔹 3378 Retest: A crucial resistance zone—failure to reclaim suggests strong sell pressure.

🔹 Break Above: If buyers absorb selling pressure, the move could extend past 3385 pivot, favoring bulls.

🔹 Failure to Hold: A rejection at 3378 could induce fast liquidation, sending price toward 3363 and below.

🔥 Smart Money Perspective

Institutions may test 3378 multiple times before deciding the next move.

If absorption strengthens, price may lean bullish.

If rejection dominates, expect a fast downward sweep into 3339 - 3326 range.

The liquidity game is in play—what’s your take on this setup? Anything you’d fine-tune based on current order flow? 🚀🔥 Would love to hear your perspective!

Note

Right into attempting the upside movement, the move extend past 3385 and should it further upside, movement favoring bullish bias.

As the baseline support below 3378 is yet retest, the direction remain unclear. This ranges could unfold multiple time lead to sideway movement. A clear indication of directional move would be accompany with convincing momentum break-away past 3363 or 3390.

Looking at the [m15] chart, analysis aligns well with current price action and liquidity positioning.

📌 Key Observations:
🔹 Break Above 3385: Suggests bullish momentum is attempting continuation.
🔹 Baseline Support at 3378: Yet to be fully retested—keeping directional bias uncertain.
🔹 Range-bound Behavior: Potential for multiple tests before a decisive move unfolds.
🔹 Momentum Confirmation: A clear breakout past 3363 (bearish) or 3390 (bullish) will provide validation for trend commitment.

💡 Verdict: Institutions may be absorbing liquidity before committing to direction. Watch for volume confirmation—if bullish momentum stalls near resistance, a rejection could induce sharp downside. If 3378 holds, expect a controlled continuation higher.

Note

wow... just a minute after... this happened. ouch.

Note

With price closing above 3390 at 3392, the market is setting up for a crucial retest of the recently broken resistance.

📌 What to Watch: 🔹 Retest of 3390-3378: If buyers hold this level, bullish continuation is favored. 🔹 Absorption vs. Rejection: Institutional liquidity positioning will dictate if price stabilizes or gets rejected. 🔹 Break & Hold Above 3392: A strong defense here could fuel further upside.

🔥 Key Decision Zone:

If 3390 holds as support, expect continuation toward 3440 - 3469 levels.

If price fails the retest, watch for a quick liquidity grab down toward 3363 - 3339 before the next move.

This retest will give the market a clear directional signal—let’s see if buyers defend this zone or if it flips back into resistance! 🚀🔥

Note

observation—price breaking past 3403 confirms strong bullish intent, and 3417 is now the key battleground for momentum validation.

📌 Key Takeaways:
🔹 3403 Breakout: Bulls are pushing higher with conviction.
🔹 Successful test & bounce off 3384: Confirms strong demand and institutional support.
🔹 3417 Critical Zone: If bulls absorb sell pressure, continuation is likely. If rejected, expect a liquidity grab before the next move.

🔥 Next Steps:
Watch 3417 price reaction—a clean break suggests acceleration, while rejection signals potential reversal traps.
Monitor volume spikes—strong engagement confirms institutional presence.
If 3417 holds, next targets could extend toward 3440+ - 3510 depending on momentum.

Note

Humility is the best teacher. I learnt that today, just shy a few points away from massive regret if it ever crossed 3417. Still not out of the wood yet, but the chances of stay calm and set strong decision is now possible.

Momentum is fading—price failed to reach 3417 and closed below the previous M30 candle at 3407.

📌 Key Observations:
🔹 Momentum Weakness: Buyers struggling to push past key resistance.
🔹 Failure to reach 3417: Signals potential exhaustion in bullish pressure.
🔹 Close below 3407: Could indicate hesitation or early signs of reversal.

🔥 Verdict: If bulls can’t reclaim 3407+, expect a deeper pullback toward 3384 - 3363. However, if buyers regain strength, another push toward 3417 remains possible.

Note

Gold better not start nesting. This is more than enough! I tell you, I’m already half out of breath.

Don’t tell me the multi-cycle liquidation is actually forming for real this time?

Gold: Multi-cycle Liquidity & The Silent Reset

Note

Sight of relief.

A smart virtue is maintaining composure even when the market delivers ruthless expansion, where destruction feels imminent.

Without the ability to hold ground—and the systems that provide support—even the most prepared trader can be caught off guard.

I successfully evaded the worst, holding firm when it mattered most.

With this system, discipline, strategy, and sheer mental resilience proved vital.

More importantly, the system passed a rare and complex stress-test, demonstrating its resilience when it mattered most.

Note

A true relief.

It back to retest this level 3284. Now is my chance to set things right.

Note

Moment of truth revealed. Done. Yeyyyyy!!!

Note

Here is how this system saved me!!!!

Note

Now, progress.

Note

After the traumatic experiences, now the same system proved vital, I can even know the slightest change in volume and momentum. Lets zoom in.

May this journey worthwhile, thank you universe for this great lesson.

Note

I am not taking chances. Dodged the bullet. Better be safe than sorry, fight another day.

Trade closed manually

Sustained the roller coaster. Finally back in green, position closed—a breath of relief, but the mind still rattled from the intensity.

The past few hours were unbearable—the kind of market pressure that forces every ounce of resilience to the surface. Mental recalibration is needed, a full reset of mind and soul after enduring what felt like pure chaos.

Exited at 3384.25—adjusted SL set precisely in the previous snapshot. Though there was more movement, that was enough. Sometimes, knowing when to walk away is the real win.

And in this context, ending with even a tiny profit feels monumental. The battle was lost at first—but the war? Won by sheer control of emotion, discipline, and hard-earned experience.

A moment of reflection, of deep gratitude—to the universe, to the systems that held up under pressure, to the journey itself. Another lesson imprinted, another step forward.

It was brutal. It was real. But it was worth it. 🚀🔥

Note

JOY WITH NO REGRET!!!![i/]

Note

I am crazy—but that’s my edge. Daring to overcome fear is my strength, and it sets me apart.

I re-entered to recalibrate my mind and soul. This time, only a small lot—low risk, clear purpose. The true setup hasn’t fully materialized yet, but I’m here, watching, preparing.

8/May/2025 LSE Session
🚀 Liquidity primed—momentum loading!

📌 Key Levels

Pivot: 3385.16
Bias: Lower Bound

🔥 Price Action Zones

📈 Bullish: Above 3417

→ Eyeing 3440 → 3510

📉 Bearish: Below 3373

→ Targets 3370 → 3303 or lower?

Market makers preparing their next play—stay sharp. 🚨🔥 Let’s see who takes control!

Note

This is on automate. No interfere, so I will off-screen;

Rest and Recuperation

Note

Will it be a 3-drive pattern or an ABC correction? Whichever wave it may be, I’ll just wait here at 3169—we’ll see how it unfolds.

FYI: I might add positions or cash out as it progresses.

The reason for this study is to explore the plausible probability that gold is already evolving to revive its legacy as the universal currency—with a digital twist. A Gold-Blockchain, one that’s more accessible than BTC—why is this a plausible big news event?

Well, global demand for independence from USD dominance and sanctions is no longer news.

For me, whatever the outcome may be, doesn’t really matter.

What matters most is how this transition reflects in gold’s movement. Here’s the catch: Bulls may start liquidating profits before it’s too late. We are already on the eve of a mid-to-long-term systemic pause, facilitating the transition.

For all we know, the digital gold infrastructure is ready to launch. So what will happen to gold’s price?

That’s the real question—digital gold (backed by physical reserves) should be a credible "legacy currency"—strategic, transactional, accelerating global acceptance, maintaining stable value, ensuring accessibility, and aligning with monetary policies.

This week marks the end of the bull run?
Correction has begun. Why? Stay tuned—I’m a sucker for uncovering these shifts.

Check out the related updates here:
1. Gold: Multi-cycle Liquidity & The Silent Reset

2. Just a thought - The Gold-Backed Financial Shift - Gold Blockchain as strong competitor to BTC as a digital currency.

Note

Friday: [9th May 2025-NYSE session] Market is very clear, clearer than it ever been before, telling the signals and everyone is ignoring it.

Seen too many has quite their trade whether it Buy/Sell today. That is the fastest development in the trading psychology cycle from stage 6 jump to stage 8 straightaway.

In my case, as long as the price did not invalidate 3373 level, I am still letting that SELL position running. Even right now, I am adding 1 small lot to the existing, so be no surprise that will averaging the price when it get trigger. Since I set the Sell Limit at 3341 level, it likely will be trigger. For the sake of adding another, I will find the right level below for a Sell stop.

This entry is not to prove to anybody. This is me test myself to the limit. Yesterday have given me the best lesson ever, I am now solid. Stand firm and trust the process.

So here is the SELL Limit order positioned at 3341

Here is the Sell Stop order positioned at 3328. The reason being, price exhaustion below 3359 and if price breached 3318 with ease on Monday opens, then this trade is valid. Let see how it unfold. alright?

Note

Alright. It's on. Limit Sell activated and running. Love to see invalidation of 3373, that would mean larger move and big picture is clearer.

Note

Zooming in the smaller TF[m45] to know where are the hype would be, its shows below 3359 level. Any promising bull move upside must completion with convincing momentum and breakout with ease that also fast to break 3373.

A true directional change does not show weakness. That is the key indications of directional move. So I am very keen to see how this play out. Here is the zoom in [m45] TF as you can see the level too.

Note

the addition Sell limit and Sell stop order both activated. These 3 unit positions (averaged price) held over the weekends and waiting for the Monday's move [on 12th May 2025].

For further update, check the new ideas aligning with this one, click below--->

Gold Price Stalling or Preparing for a Move?

jerryfc000

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