Following Wednesday's rate hike by the Federal Reserve, gold prices experienced a slight increase. However, the most significant revelation from the central bank was not the expected tightening, but rather Chair Jerome Powell's comment that most officials are not foreseeing a recession in the near future. This emphasized the belief in a soft landing scenario.
Given this perspective, it is widely expected that the Fed will maintain its current stance in September, and any further actions will depend on incoming economic data. At present, let us analyze the technical aspects of the gold market.
One notable development on the XAU/USD daily chart is the emergence of a bullish Golden Cross between the 20-day and 50-day Moving Averages (MA). This signals a growing upside technical bias and represents a reversal from the bearish Death Cross observed in May.
The Golden Cross formation occurred after prices broke above a short-term declining trendline from May. Since then, gold appears to have encountered resistance around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1971. If this level is breached, the next minor resistance lies at 2013, followed by the May highs in the range of 2048 to 2081.
On the other hand, if gold reverses its course and falls below the moving averages, immediate support can be found at the 1936 inflection point. Further decline could lead to a test of the 38.2% retracement level at 1903, and breaking below that might signal a stronger bearish sentiment.
In conclusion, the Federal Reserve's rate hike had a modest impact on gold prices, and the focus now shifts to the technical landscape. The formation of the Golden Cross indicates a positive outlook, but market movements will ultimately depend on economic data and how prices respond to key resistance and support levels.
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