Gold under strong Volatility on Intra-day basis
Gold's general commentary: Another strong rebound on early U.S. session opening, Daily chart candle (# +0.31% so far) is Neutral with Bullish note on Short-term, as I won’t be surprised to see Gold piercing the Lower High's Upper zone around #1,858.80 - #1,862.80 ahead of DX developments as an strongest catalyst for the week. Bond Yields were on the #2nd straight Bullish Engulfing candle, applying heavy Selling pressure on Gold (which had less or no impact at the moment), as the most important Bullish (regarding Gold) factor at the moment, and sole reason why Gold ain’t below #1,831.80 Support at the moment, and is the constant pressure on Global geopolitics (striking news about Fed hiding the real truth about the Inflation and evident Gold futures manipulation) aswell as Congress being too far away from new Monetary stimulus launch - all those developments are Fundamentally Bullish for Gold on both Short and Medium-term, which cause safe assets (Gold) to gain and Bond Yields to lose as Investors are pursuing safer assets to park their capital. This shows how overpriced Gold currently is due to these Fundamental tensions during this most recent Bullish leg, and after needed correction, should be ready for a new #127 + point decline. The Medium-term Technical trend still didn’t assumed control from the Fundamentals as despite this and last week’s reports missing their estimates, DX is in disastrous shape and is Trending sideways. The reason Gold is in uptrend lately more than # 1.00% was due to current #127 point decline rejection being too close to the multi Month’s Support Zone on the Daily chart (no reason to expect a Multi-Month Support to break without a cause).
Technical analysis: Throughout yesterday's session I witnessed (once again) how Fundamentals (reports) can momentarily distort Technical trends, as a seemingly Bearish Hourly 4 chart's candle (U.S. opening) closed with huge Intra-day gains as an disastrous #2nd event was out of the ordinary and this kind of sequence didn’t occurred for more than #9 Years (since #2011). The Bullish Daily chart's Short-term trend of the Descending Channel was broken but on predominantly Neutral bias, since Gold is still on the #1,850's High Volatility Variance. If my Weekly regressional forecast is correct on a future Bearish Weekly candle succession, then early next week Gold should Trade below #1,831.80 easily and finish the week on losses. As I can see, the proposed Descending Channel which I mentioned in my previous paragraph is wiped out and not dominating the Trade. I surely miscalculated the trend and from a clear Selling sequence, Gold went on almost #18 point Overbought run and removed big portion Sellers from the market. Gold's greatest “success” this week was posting it's first Hourly candle with losses since two straight on heavy gains. The Price-action will be next looking to fill the #1,800’s contact point, but it is too early to make a move.
My position: Many violent spikes occurred throughout yesterday's session, firstly, excellent Selling opportunity was invalidated in the manner of strong Support rejection (from below it) and resulted as an huge Price-action reversal which I had no explanations on. DX was on Intra-day recovery, Bond Yields was about to break the local peak on Bullish Gap fill, but both correlating assets had small impact on yesterday's session Price-action. Even though DX (my main correlation) tested and invalidated Resistance on one hit, Gold risen aswell diagonally which adds more importance to Volatility assets are Trading under. As I always implement strict Risk management in such sessions, I will continue with moving the Stop-loss on breakeven regarding my orders (every #6 points in Profit) as long as this unprecedented Volatility lasts. I will assume no orders regarding today's session.
Technical analysis: Throughout yesterday's session I witnessed (once again) how Fundamentals (reports) can momentarily distort Technical trends, as a seemingly Bearish Hourly 4 chart's candle (U.S. opening) closed with huge Intra-day gains as an disastrous #2nd event was out of the ordinary and this kind of sequence didn’t occurred for more than #9 Years (since #2011). The Bullish Daily chart's Short-term trend of the Descending Channel was broken but on predominantly Neutral bias, since Gold is still on the #1,850's High Volatility Variance. If my Weekly regressional forecast is correct on a future Bearish Weekly candle succession, then early next week Gold should Trade below #1,831.80 easily and finish the week on losses. As I can see, the proposed Descending Channel which I mentioned in my previous paragraph is wiped out and not dominating the Trade. I surely miscalculated the trend and from a clear Selling sequence, Gold went on almost #18 point Overbought run and removed big portion Sellers from the market. Gold's greatest “success” this week was posting it's first Hourly candle with losses since two straight on heavy gains. The Price-action will be next looking to fill the #1,800’s contact point, but it is too early to make a move.
My position: Many violent spikes occurred throughout yesterday's session, firstly, excellent Selling opportunity was invalidated in the manner of strong Support rejection (from below it) and resulted as an huge Price-action reversal which I had no explanations on. DX was on Intra-day recovery, Bond Yields was about to break the local peak on Bullish Gap fill, but both correlating assets had small impact on yesterday's session Price-action. Even though DX (my main correlation) tested and invalidated Resistance on one hit, Gold risen aswell diagonally which adds more importance to Volatility assets are Trading under. As I always implement strict Risk management in such sessions, I will continue with moving the Stop-loss on breakeven regarding my orders (every #6 points in Profit) as long as this unprecedented Volatility lasts. I will assume no orders regarding today's session.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
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