gold Elliott wave 1959 to 1804
Updated
price first dropped vertical in wave A than it made flag correction patter in wave B than it made C ending diagonal pattern after cpi and other economic indicators
while top was made after fomc meeting when fed said deflation has been started and inflation will drop very quickly
but despite those less hawkish comments gold dropped which you can say insider trading before nfp or profit taking after November bottom
but latter that week price drop accelerated after strong 517k nfp and strong ISM pmi numbers
while our wave C decline came after cpi which proved opposite of what fed said in fomc speech
from top 1959 abc waves are correction to daily time frame trend from 1614 to 1959
we can say this is correction ending with ending diagonal pattern at 1804
if today's candle stick close green again than it will confirm bottom for gold
rsi divergence since low made by wave A
since we are near 1 year of fed first rate hike last year
so lag effect of fed aggressive rate hike since volcker will create slow down in global economy
reason to buy
while top was made after fomc meeting when fed said deflation has been started and inflation will drop very quickly
but despite those less hawkish comments gold dropped which you can say insider trading before nfp or profit taking after November bottom
but latter that week price drop accelerated after strong 517k nfp and strong ISM pmi numbers
while our wave C decline came after cpi which proved opposite of what fed said in fomc speech
from top 1959 abc waves are correction to daily time frame trend from 1614 to 1959
we can say this is correction ending with ending diagonal pattern at 1804
if today's candle stick close green again than it will confirm bottom for gold
rsi divergence since low made by wave A
since we are near 1 year of fed first rate hike last year
so lag effect of fed aggressive rate hike since volcker will create slow down in global economy
reason to buy
- because of lag effect nfp come down from 517k to 200k till December 2023
- fed dual mandate will shift form inflation in 2022 to employment in 2023
- global rate hike will pause with march month and later fed will pause with last hike in may fomc
- rate pause will start evitable rate cut so again market pricing for rate cut = gold bullish again
- to get out of recession central banks will again start easy monetary policy which can send gold upto $3000 so possible bottom after nov 4 low at 1620
- correction to trend from 1614 to 1959 than new higher high beyond $2100
- buy at 1804 with profit target first $2000 than $2100
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