Observations:
Price has been respecting a clear descending trendline since late April, with multiple touches and rejections.
A significant supply zone around the 3,330 level aligns with the trendline resistance, increasing confluence for a potential reversal.
The market has formed lower highs consistently, suggesting bearish pressure is building up.
A horizontal demand/support level around 3,125 (previous swing low) is the primary target in case of a bearish breakout.
Volume and structure suggest distribution, further supporting bearish continuation.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price retests and rejects the 3,330 resistance level again next week, especially with a wick rejection or bearish engulfing candle:
Expect downside continuation toward 3,125, aligning with a ~1500 pip target.
This move would represent a ~5% drop from current levels.
Trading Plan / Signal:
Sell Setup:
Entry Zone: Between 3,320 – 3,330 (upon bearish confirmation e.g., bearish engulfing or shooting star)
Stop Loss: Above 3,350 (just above trendline and invalidation zone)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,250
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,200
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,150/25
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:3+
Invalidation:
Clean breakout and retest above 3,350 would invalidate the setup and may suggest a reversal toward 3,500.
Fundamental Consideration:
No major geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks should occur to maintain this bearish bias. Any high-impact news could cause volatility, so monitor the economic calendar closely.
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Price has been respecting a clear descending trendline since late April, with multiple touches and rejections.
A significant supply zone around the 3,330 level aligns with the trendline resistance, increasing confluence for a potential reversal.
The market has formed lower highs consistently, suggesting bearish pressure is building up.
A horizontal demand/support level around 3,125 (previous swing low) is the primary target in case of a bearish breakout.
Volume and structure suggest distribution, further supporting bearish continuation.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price retests and rejects the 3,330 resistance level again next week, especially with a wick rejection or bearish engulfing candle:
Expect downside continuation toward 3,125, aligning with a ~1500 pip target.
This move would represent a ~5% drop from current levels.
Trading Plan / Signal:
Sell Setup:
Entry Zone: Between 3,320 – 3,330 (upon bearish confirmation e.g., bearish engulfing or shooting star)
Stop Loss: Above 3,350 (just above trendline and invalidation zone)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,250
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,200
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,150/25
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:3+
Invalidation:
Clean breakout and retest above 3,350 would invalidate the setup and may suggest a reversal toward 3,500.
Fundamental Consideration:
No major geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks should occur to maintain this bearish bias. Any high-impact news could cause volatility, so monitor the economic calendar closely.
Please follow, like, comment and share.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
✅Free Telegram
t.me/+6YQX9c4-BiQ2M2M8
Twitter 👇
twitter.com/QuinnGoldTrader
t.me/+6YQX9c4-BiQ2M2M8
Twitter 👇
twitter.com/QuinnGoldTrader
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.