The Story Of XAUUSD | Beginning, Middle, & End...Where are we?
Updated
This chart is pure price and market timing, for more analysis like this make sure to follow/subscribe. We will breakdown Gold from an institutional & retail perspective, then discuss the interaction between both parties to hypothesize how this story will unfold.
Phase 1: WHAT IS THE TREND?
The Weekly chart is currently bearish, as is the Daily. We have lower highs and lower lows on both charts.
So, I am looking for bearish setups until $1780 breaks. (Weekly Level)
If the daily hits $1780 I'm viewing it as a pullback within a bearish trend, not a break of structure.
____________________________________________________________________
Phase 2: $1620 has been my weekly target for over a month now, because we have hedging stops sitting there from 2020. I'm waiting for them to get pulled (I'm speculating they are at $1660-$1670)
What are retail traders seeing right now? We are seeing almost a picture perfect double bottom forming. Just above $1670. Why is this important?
Well, if there are sell orders already sitting there, when this double top breaks above the neckline, more traders will go long....where will they put their stops? Just below the double bottom.....what price would that be...$1660-$1670!!!!! This would be more sell orders getting placed, where the hedge orders are.
Stay with me here,
_____________________________________________________________________
Phase 3: (Where we are now)
This is after/if the double top triggers people. They will be going LONG right around $1780. This is a level the banks want to sell at...why?
In February, the banks initiated a liquidity spike which shows me they are bearish at this level. $1760 is also March's high, most funds use monthly charts, we want to see April poke above the March high because this would trigger them long as well. Giving market makers even more reason to eat their orders. WE NEED PRICE TO POKE ABOVE THE MARCH HIGH, AND CLOSE UNDER IT DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. This would confirm the banks still want to sell.
We also have a bearish algo pattern that tells me to sell at &1780 but I will not discuss that here.
________________________________________________________________________
Phase 4: We pop above March and close under.
This is where it really starts turning into a speculative game of "how can we get to $1620?"
I believe this phase would form a potential head, for a head and shoulders pattern. Why is this important?
Retail traders will now be thinking short...they will wait for price to break the neckline.
They will also be waiting for this current double bottom to break (the equal lows) they will have this drawn as support.
When/if these levels break, they will not start triggering MORE SELL ORDERS
__________________________________________________________________________
Phase 5: Manipulation spike for potential 2021 low
This where we look to buy in the purple zone, price may stretch below it, but we want to monitor structure, and see if it stabilizes around $1620.
This would be us buying everyone's sell orders with the market makers. My Long term target is a new all time high.
___________________________________________________________________________
Until next time,
Let's Elevate,
Gio.
Phase 1: WHAT IS THE TREND?
The Weekly chart is currently bearish, as is the Daily. We have lower highs and lower lows on both charts.
So, I am looking for bearish setups until $1780 breaks. (Weekly Level)
If the daily hits $1780 I'm viewing it as a pullback within a bearish trend, not a break of structure.
____________________________________________________________________
Phase 2: $1620 has been my weekly target for over a month now, because we have hedging stops sitting there from 2020. I'm waiting for them to get pulled (I'm speculating they are at $1660-$1670)
What are retail traders seeing right now? We are seeing almost a picture perfect double bottom forming. Just above $1670. Why is this important?
Well, if there are sell orders already sitting there, when this double top breaks above the neckline, more traders will go long....where will they put their stops? Just below the double bottom.....what price would that be...$1660-$1670!!!!! This would be more sell orders getting placed, where the hedge orders are.
Stay with me here,
_____________________________________________________________________
Phase 3: (Where we are now)
This is after/if the double top triggers people. They will be going LONG right around $1780. This is a level the banks want to sell at...why?
In February, the banks initiated a liquidity spike which shows me they are bearish at this level. $1760 is also March's high, most funds use monthly charts, we want to see April poke above the March high because this would trigger them long as well. Giving market makers even more reason to eat their orders. WE NEED PRICE TO POKE ABOVE THE MARCH HIGH, AND CLOSE UNDER IT DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. This would confirm the banks still want to sell.
We also have a bearish algo pattern that tells me to sell at &1780 but I will not discuss that here.
________________________________________________________________________
Phase 4: We pop above March and close under.
This is where it really starts turning into a speculative game of "how can we get to $1620?"
I believe this phase would form a potential head, for a head and shoulders pattern. Why is this important?
Retail traders will now be thinking short...they will wait for price to break the neckline.
They will also be waiting for this current double bottom to break (the equal lows) they will have this drawn as support.
When/if these levels break, they will not start triggering MORE SELL ORDERS
__________________________________________________________________________
Phase 5: Manipulation spike for potential 2021 low
This where we look to buy in the purple zone, price may stretch below it, but we want to monitor structure, and see if it stabilizes around $1620.
This would be us buying everyone's sell orders with the market makers. My Long term target is a new all time high.
___________________________________________________________________________
Until next time,
Let's Elevate,
Gio.
Note
$1725 region is still holding up, continue looking for longs until the daily closes below this price, OR reaches $1775.This move up looks like it maybe be ready to run for at least march's high in the within a week or so.
Note
As long as the H1 doesn't make a new high, I'm observing for a buy signal in the red zoneNote
Currently 300+ pips and counting, only 30 pip drawdown. This is the last update for this post, I'll make a new Gold post recapping my trade. I'll make a new post if we hit $1775 region for a short as wellNote
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