Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Updated

US tariff deadline, GOLD expected to fluctuate very strongly

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Investors will be keeping an eye on tariff news from Washington this week as the temporary suspension of punitive import duties is set to expire. If trade tensions do not escalate further after Wednesday’s deadline, that could be good for the market, while downside risks are also a negative for XAUUSD in particular.

News Around US Tariffs
To avoid higher tariffs, negotiators from more than a dozen major US trading partners are racing against time to negotiate with the Trump administration, trying to reach a deal before July 9. Trump and his team have continued to apply pressure in recent days.
Trump announced a deal with Vietnam to lower the 20% tariffs he had promised on many Vietnamese exports, while talks with Japan, the United States’ most important ally in Asia and sixth-largest trading partner, appeared to be stalled, even as Washington hinted it was close to a deal with India.

In data
Nonfarm payrolls data released Thursday showed the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, beating market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Despite the slowdown in private-sector hiring, the overall strong report prompted markets to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut has dropped sharply from 24% to 4.7%. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the central bank will not ease its stance until there are more signs of cooling in employment and inflation.

Personal Comments
The market is following a number of factors:

On the one hand, there is a countdown to Trump's "final blow" on tariffs, and on the other hand, the non-farm data has poured cold water once again. As the Fed's stance fluctuates, the US Dollar faces a tug-of-war between long and short positions, while gold continues to stabilize technically or has had significant price increases. July 9 of this month could be a key moment to really test the sustainability of gold in this recovery.

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 07 - Jul 11]


Technical Outlook Analysis XAUUSD
Gold has recovered significantly over the past week, since finding support from the $3,250 area, but the temporary recovery is still limited by the EMA21 followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.

However, sustained price action above the $3,300 raw price point should be viewed as a positive signal as it helps gold stabilize within the price channel.

If gold rises and breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to continue rising with a short-term target of around $3,400 rather than a horizontal resistance of $3,430.
The indecision sentiment is shown by the RSI activity, which is mostly moving around the 50 level. RSI above 50 is considered a positive signal, while RSI below 50 is considered a negative signal, but gold is currently in the middle of this point.

Overall, gold has not yet had a short-term trend, but in the long-term, gold prices are still in an upward trend, which is noted by the price channel.

Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD


SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3338

→Take Profit 1 3326

→Take Profit 2 3320

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3275 - 3277⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3271

→Take Profit 1 3283

→Take Profit 2 3289
Note
Spot gold has reached the important position of 3331-3336, which is easy to attract great attention from funds, and can pay attention to the contentious situation here.
Note
Trump "stirred up" GOLD recovery but limited by USD appreciation
Trade closed: target reached
Plan BUY +40pips close a part move SL to entry.🔥
Note
🔴 Spot gold falls below $3,290

Spot gold touched $3,290 an ounce, down 0.35% on the day.
Note
▫️The US Dollar Index DXY briefly fell 10 points, currently at 97.54.

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