The price of gold broke the shackles of the recent trading range and began to attack new highs; the regional banking crisis triggered an increase in risk appetite, and the yield of US treasury bonds began to fall; the focus of the market was on the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve in the early hours of Thursday; Where will gold prices head if it hints at a more hawkish Fed?
With the decline in risk sentiment and the decline in U.S. bond yields, the price of gold rose sharply overnight, reaching above $2,000 an ounce.
Wall Street closed lower after the regional lender faced market scrutiny, although embattled First Republic Bank received support from JPMorgan earlier this week. The KBW Bank Index, which includes several leading regional banks, fell 4.47% on Tuesday.
At the same time, the unresolved US debt ceiling issue continues to simmer; gold and Treasuries are being sought after as concerns about the macroeconomic environment continue to grow.
U.S. Treasury yields across different maturity structures fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 18 basis points to below 4%. At the close of the New York session, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 14 basis points in nominal terms, while the 10-year real yield was down 11 basis points.
Note: The real yield is the nominal yield minus the market inflation rate as measured by TIPS.
That means little change in inflation expectations but higher returns on risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries. Gold's safe-haven attributes also appear to help it benefit from market sentiment.
The greenback has had an uneventful week so far, with markets still weighing the possible impact of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
While the market is now pricing in a 25 basis point hike, the focus remains on Powell's press conference, when markets will get guidance on the Fed's future policy stance.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Gold prices are still inside an uptrend channel and have been hovering in a relatively narrow 1969-2049 range for 5 weeks.
If gold prices rise further in the future, the double top pattern formed by the record high of 2075 in April 2020 and the failed attempt to break through in March 2022 will attract market attention.
Conversely, if gold prices turn lower, then the 1885-1895 area appears to be the key support. The area also contains the 100-day moving average, previous lows, breakout barriers, and rising trendlines within this area, reinforcing the importance of this support area.