GOLD → Consolidation before the news. What could happen?
Updated
XAUUSD continues to consolidate in the 2050 - 2035 range. Powell speaks again today, earlier the US market got a higher GDP and good Initial Jobless Claims data, how will this affect his speech and how might gold react?The
DXY is testing local levels, ahead of ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices and also at 16:00 and 19:00 GMT Powell will speak. US inflation is declining and there are indicators for that, but the dollar is strengthening, which provokes gold to form a consolidation. We are now confused by the death cross on D1, but again, since the gold is in a global sideways range, maybe we should not pay so much attention to this signal.
At the moment gold is testing the level of 2048.77 with a false breakdown.
On H1 we see strong consolidation, range boundary tests and false breakdowns. The market will wait for the news and most likely there will be no strong movements before that. The price is gaining liquidity before Powell's speech.
An actual rate cut is out of the question now, we will only need to hear positive sentiment or hints. If Powell hints more strongly about an imminent change of monetary policy to a more loyal one, the dollar index will resume its bearish trend and gold will head towards the upper global boundary of 2059 - 2067.
But, as a force majeure, negative news for gold, the realization of a false breakout and death cross, the price could quite possibly test both trend support, 2022, and the far liquidity zone 2010 - 2020, but it will not change the medium-term and long-term outlook for now. The market could test the global high by the end of the year (perhaps even soon).
Support levels: 2038, 2035, 2022
Resistance levels: 2049, 2059
I am waiting for the publication of news, which will determine the short and medium term scenario for gold. The probability that the price will update the high increases as the Fed's sentiment improves.
Regards R. Linda!
Trade active
Ahead, at 16:00 GMT is Powell's first speech for today.Expect. Control your trading before the news, reduce risks
Note
What could happen to gold after Powell's speech?
Against the backdrop of improving inflation, as evidenced by the news this week, I still expect Powell to hint at a change from a tight policy to a more accommodative one.
The main question is when will they still announce a rate cut?
The bullish news is not important for the dollar right now, but rather for Powell. Once he decides that the news is strong enough to support lower inflation, then he will start cutting rates, thus the dollar index will start its decline further.
What will happen to gold?
On the back of the initial news wave, gold may test a new high, but a pullback may follow in the long run, as a safer global environment will again cause capital to move out of gold and into other markets: forex, stocks, futures, cryptocurrencies, commodities and so on.
Also: signaling a possible medium-term pullback could be the distribution after the outbreak of war in the middle east.
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