1- Market Overview: As it is clear from the screenshot above the market is moving upward where the price managed to break a series of highs month after month. The rally started in December 2021 and then a huge drop was left on March 22nd to the 1900 USD mark. From this zone, Gold failed to break the previous high around the 2000 USD mark and posted a lower high showing weakness from the buyer’s side.
2- Long Scenario: The long scenario is our most likely scenario for this analysis since the market is traded to the upside, the odds of a long trading idea is much more likely to occur. The market as we can see is respecting the bullish trendline and it’s held by the buyers around the 1915 USD support zone. So, what most probably will occur is a move to the upside to test the previous high near the 2000 USD mark and then if the buyers are strong enough, we could see GOLD reaching the previous swing high around the 2071 USD level. However, we must highlight that the price posted a lower high after reaching the 2071 USD mark, which is an indication that the sellers might take control of the market in the coming days. Let’s move to discuss the short scenario where the reversal might occur, and we could see a huge drop in price of GOLD.
3- Short Scenario: The least likely scenario for this analysis is to see the GOLD reversing and move lower. As we mentioned in the previous paragraph, the yellow commodity posted a lower high which is a weak indication for the buyers. But this doesn’t mean that the market will reverse anytime soon before seeing a certain price action that we are going to discuss now. To see this particular reversal and a move to the downside, we should wait until the market breaks the support level around the 1915 USD mark and close below it. As well, another breakout we wanted to see is a breach of the bullish trendline to the downside. If these two movements occur this will lead to a huge move of the GOLD to the downside all the way to the 1800 USD mark.
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