3000 BY HALLLOWEEN, DRAFT 6D, DIE BEARS, DIE AGAIN, AND AGAIN!
Today's response to 2353 (which was a push to 2364 and held for some time) means the price curve needs to be adjusted for the move to 2405.
1) first, I am on vacation
2) I DID NOT DETAIL THE LOOK OF THIS MOVE
3) I just know that that we go to 2385 on Thursday
4) and 2405 after NFP or Friday
5) this means NEXT WEEK we do 2500
6) and if you are bearish or a bear in general
7) these next 5-6 weeks is a REALLY BAD TIME...
8) to pick a fight with me
9) and I don't give any f's which expert you follow
10) bc from here to 8/20
11) I am going to crush them unless they have the tools I have
12) so get long, stay long, and leverage long
1) first, I am on vacation
2) I DID NOT DETAIL THE LOOK OF THIS MOVE
3) I just know that that we go to 2385 on Thursday
4) and 2405 after NFP or Friday
5) this means NEXT WEEK we do 2500
6) and if you are bearish or a bear in general
7) these next 5-6 weeks is a REALLY BAD TIME...
8) to pick a fight with me
9) and I don't give any f's which expert you follow
10) bc from here to 8/20
11) I am going to crush them unless they have the tools I have
12) so get long, stay long, and leverage long
Note
2:03 PM, 7/3, HERE IS WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE CALLING:1) click that light bulb to the right
2) first article up is your favorite writer... and I wont' even mention her name
3) she is saying "2319 keeps the market from falling but for how long?"
4) and for the record, I love her work
5) but for this one ....
6) we (me and her) NOT IN THE SAME BALL PARK
Note
7) and you know what the difference really is8) I wrote yesterday's post calling it "DIE BEARS, TIME TO DIE!
9) I didn't say, "Bears, take a break!"
10) I said TIME TO DIE
11) so what?
12) tomorrow they are going to die again
13) and Friday they will die again
14) and the entire following week
15) all the rest of July
16) and the first half of August'
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6:54, 2358.xx and on the move EARLY.... but where to?1) 67, 72 is obvious
2) but isn't it too early for 85?
3) it's too early for 85 (I think)
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7:15 PM ET overnight is 72 target1) I don't expect 85 until late tomorrow
2) from afternoon and on
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8:10 56.xxx and making way more sense3) should be sideways until morning before moving up
4) the overnight route to 2372 just eliminated I believe
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11:01 PM ET, 7/3, I think the move should be faster not slower5) why?
6) forex/futures are closed tomorrow starting 12 to 1:30 PM
7) from noon to 7 PM ET, which include Sydney open and Tokyo premarket
8) LITERALLY NOTHING HAPPENS
9) so if we are to get a Thursday move, it should come early as opposed to later
10) BC THERE IS NO LATER
11) wortcase senario 2405 gets pushed to To Sunday night
Note
Note
12) in worst case scenario is a sideways move to NFP13) but the intensity of pressure released
14) would give you a 50-60 point spike
15) ultimately not knowable for another 5-6 hours
16) in which price action will have let us know enough to make the call
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7/4, 7:12 PM, 2750 VS THE SIDEWAYS LIMIT17) continuing from previous notes about the sideways move to NFP
18) first, what I know
a) we are actually on our way above 3050, it maybe closer to 3100 '
b) but this is the 10/31 Halloween high
c) there are 3 major highs
d) from here to 10/31
e) the 2520 high, the 2750 high, and let's call it 3075 high
g) I have 3075 by 10/31
h) I have 2750 by 8/16
i) I have 2520 by NEXT FRIDAY 7/12 but I am going to move it back 2 days
j) so 2520 by 7/16
k) l and the reason is July 4th stall has stretched the sideways limit
l) here is an example:
Note
Note
6) in chart above, this rally - in hindsight - was a simple set up 7) compared to what we have now
8) first, its low was hit only 11 trading days ahead of its sideways limit
9) which was 2/13 vs 2/29
Note
Note
19) but because the rally high is 3075-ish20 ) its setup or lead-in is still incomplete
21) the question is then, WHEN DO WE HIT THIS LIMIT??
22) I am still on vacation in Chicago so I am not going to get extremely specific
23) but it should be next Mon, Tue, or Wed WITH ONE IMPORTANT CAVEAT
Note
Note
24) in chart above, YELLOW IS FEB TO APRIL RALLY25) it was a simple setup where the "sideways limit" is truly sideways
26) our limit this time is more like " a sideways to up limit"
27) so we are STILL IN SLOW CLIMB TOWARDS TUES OR WED ...
28) IF PRICE INTENDS TO SOLVE THIS WITH a slow climb (its favored to)
29) but please understand THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO
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30) there's at least 3 ways price can do this 31) the second way is a 60-pt spike tomorrow (but this isn't "favored"
32) will add more with time
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7/4, 10:42 PM ET, 2362.XX 33) the third way is getting up there with small staircases
34) so again:
a) slow zig zag (favored)
b) 60 pt spik (not favored)
c) 3 of 20pt staircases (which is like first one, but more "rectangular)
d) but basically we are going up the question is how fast before vertical momentum
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10:52 PM ET, what I personally thinke) in chart at top, I said, "you can bet on it"
f) meaning closing 2400+
g) this requires the first part of the move to happen on Thursday
h) it depends on whether or not the holiday really mattered
i) I still think - personally - that we tag 2403 tomorrow
j) but I would lying if I said I still think we CLOSE 2400
k) and my reasons for this is basically a debate between do short term trends matter more
l) or do long term trends matter more
m) and the answer is actually simple but not useful
n) the answer is SHORT TERM TRENDS MATTER MORE, UNTIL THEY DO NOT
o) so in that sense, I can't claim vertical momentum until the sideways limit expires
p) that doesn't mean that we can't go to vertical now, I JUST CANNOT CLAIM THAT
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q) even though I personally think that...r) in this situation, the move into "the sideways limit expiration"
s) maybe and even should be a vertical move
t) I just cannot prove mathematically, that it is the favored to
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u) 11:09 PM ET, there are few times during the year that I speak to detractors in such absolute terms as i have done recentlyv) it's not bc I think I am smarter
w) it's bc I have put in enough hours to deserve to take that ristk
x) and trust me when I say
y) if you are not paying time value (out of the money calls)
z) this is a really bad time to disagree with me
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11:28 PM ET, 2360.681) let's start w/ the obvious
2) overnight targets are 2366, 71
3) Williams speaks at 5:40 AM ET from India, 6 hours out
4) NFP is 8:30 AM, 9 hours out
5) I think we can tag 71 before NFP
6) it should be check down at 2371 and then all the way up
7) but it's hard to call higher than 71 before NFP
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1:54 AM ET, 7/5/2024, THIS DRAFT IS DONE FOR, HERE IS 6E:'
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