Long

3100 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 8-4, 2500 & 2510 FIRST

Updated

As I type it's 2467.xx at resistance. In chart above, yellow watermark is draft 8-3. This move is even slower than i foresaw in the afternoon. The reason is that its 2500-&2510 tops are just temporary before 2550 top coming some time on Monday. For the purposes of this last general audience post, I will ONLY UPDATE AND COMMENT UNTIL 2500 which may take until noon of today (Thursday), New York time. I'm just going to get this up first and add notes really soon after.

Note

7/18, 12:24 AM, the important stuff first:
1) RISK LIMITS changes (if any):
a)I am comfortable with 50:1
b) I am comfortable with ATM CALLS 2(2465 OR LOWER) expiring 7/24 or later
c) WORST CASE SCENARIO floor is 2462.5
d) so whatever instruments you trade -
e) your position MUST SURVIVE a dip to to 2462.5
f) THIS ALSO MEANS THAT 2462.25 IS CURRENT HARD STOP

Note

2) IN AND OUT OR HOLD TO 2500/2510??
a) Mostro/MJ is right this time, HOLD TO 2500 to sell
b) it's looking like 11 AM-ish tomorrow
c) but I only know this NOW
d) when there's a change in pattern and I don't have "route details"
e) selling 2485, waiting 2-3 hours for a retrace IS SO MUCH SAFER
f) BC ORIGINALLY, after the 53 low but before the 51 low
g) I DID SAY "DO NOT F W/ IT"
h) BUT THAT'S BEFORE I KNEW MY PATTERN WAS OFF
i) now I know
j) think about it for second
k) I can't tell the whole audience SUPERMAX LEVERAGE BUT...
l) "I don't really know what/when it looks like"
m) and this is really the crux of forecasting
n) bc everybody can see 2500 BY NOW... but WHEN"?
o) and.. can I really prove it wouldn't check to 2447 during Tokyo
p) I didn't prove that until 3-4 hours ago
q) so that's why I HAD TO BE DEFENSIVE
l) if you trading 1:1, I could care less about it
m) but you using your margin and leverage
n) I DID NOT HAVE THE OPTION TO BE WRONG
o) especially when I started out the post instigating my detractors
p) SO THAT'S A WRAP FOR OPEN NOTES

Note

3 12:44 AM, I've stated that 2520 should be the top FOR A LONG TIME
a) like even before DRAFT 1 for this series
b) so we're this close to all of a sudden have to change it
c) it shook me a little bit (but it's ingrained in my mind for so long)
d) with particular dates and everything
e) so when the pattern shifted AND THEN WAS LATE, supposed to be 2485 4 hours ago
f) int the first "re-draft, I had a time-out moment in my mind
g) but base case 2550 next week and 2750 mid August is a sticker
h) so all I really needed to do was make sure we dont' check 47 again
i) and then sat back to re-draft

Note

Note

1) in chart above, that also means...
2) that if bold black trend line does not surrender soon (90 min or so)
3) obvious move is check down next
4) the WORST CASE SCENARIO-HARD STOP FLOOR SHOULD BE 2461

Note

5) 1:14, conversely if price move up here (looks like it) at 68.87
6) WORST CASE - HARD STOP FLOOR SHOULD BE 64.5

Note

1:20 AM AND BREAK OUT TO 2469.5
1) I'm updating this post to until we hit $2500
2) I don't know what you trade
3) but that should give you enough to cover fees until
4) we get to 3100 by Halloween
5) so I don't want hear "too expensive for me", ok?
6) tomorrow 11AM-1 PM, we will be done with this post
7) make a decision if you want to stay in the group
8) if you don't want to stay, you should leave the group
9) bc if I remove you it will be annoying later if you change your mind
10) so dead line is now when we hit $2500

Note

11) retag of line makes this a binary:

Note

1:45, this is going to be a crawl until NY open
a) 2480s, not looking likely until NY open
b) that's all for tonight

Note

1:59 AM, London pre-open and management of 2464.5 WORST CASE SCENARIO
AND HARD STOP FLOOR.
1) first, If I am up all the time
2 you would never get in trouble
3) I am bout to go to sleep and it just dropped to 65.50
4) London selling off is not surprising
5) what should do?
6) hedge OR STOP LOSS 64.5 and?
7) wait for a bounce to get you over the bold line
8) why 64.5?
9) for this pattern right now

Note

10) and just hit 64.7 as I type

Note

11) do I have conviction in my targets, YES!
12) but crazy shit happen all the time
13) and if it does, at least you didtn't lose on the trade
14) I don't want wake up to a pattern shift and an annoyed audience
15 so BASICALLY GET OVER THE LINE AND YO'LL BE FINE
16) stop did not yet, but if it does, just wait it out

Note

10) good night

Note

1) for ex: the surprise move here?
2) IS ALL THE WAY UP TO RED ROUTE AGAIN
3) massive dog vs blue now, but what the hell is bull market for?

Note

4) see you in a few hours

Note

5) OMG, is London gonna give us 85?
6) what are the odds of that?
7) London? new all time high?
8) fingers crossed

Note

3:17 AM, 72 AFTER 75 , NEW STOP 67 (same strategy wait it out)

Note

1) in chart above, what I'm saying when I made the floor/stop 67...
2) I was thinking red route
3) blue route is fine where it is
4) just use that line as a stop, get in 65.5 now at 5:08 AM ET

Note

5:46 AM CONTINUING IN CHART ABOVE:
1. checked the math again
2. we ARE STILL FAVORED TO HIT 2500S
3. but it may take to 2 PM ET

Note

4) WATCH 64.5
5) we over that line now, so I am not concerned about this moving back down
6) I am concern that if we do not move up here
8) you have a top rolling over before you know it

Note

6:03 AM, I AM OUT. 63.75

Note

1) I want to see this bounce
2) why defensive here?
3 because WE DON'T HAVE TO GO TO DAY

Note

4) its going to choose now
5) well let it choose then

Note

6:14 AM, 2463.7 YOU CANNOT BE LONG ANY MORE
1) you have to let it decide first
2) there's more than one way up
3) Iit does NOT HAVE TO BE TODAY

Note

4) in chart above, price wants to retest 2450
5) looks like gold will pass that test
6) WE WILL WAIT UNTIL WE KNOW TO ENTER AGAIN

Note

THE BLUE LINE IS THE PROBLEM
1) losing it is a deal breaker
2) re-gain and retest meaning break up AND THEN BOUNCE OFF THE BLUE LINE
3) THEN THAT WOULD BE A ROUTE UP
4) but make price prove it first
5) why ACCEPT RISK WHEN YOU DON'T HAVE TO?

Note

6) 7/18 6:37 AM, WE HAVE A MOVE UP, BUY THE BOUNCE OFF THE BLUE LINE

Note

before I wake up later
1) the rally is incomplete
2) that low should hold and this moves to 2550
3) I just don't have any time right now
4) TO MANAGE RISK , IT'S THAT BLUE LINE PLUS RECENT LOW WHICH 60-61

Note

7:39 AM, SO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I'M SEEING:
1) before I sleep, we are in "last finish of first rally" scenario
2) I had to be sure it wasn't doing something crazy
3) it's 90-10 that black/blue line cross would hold from here
4) which leaves only one route left, in chart above to 2537-2550 zone
5) IF IN THE SCENARIO THAT PRICE SWING BACK DOWN SOME HOW
6) that's not something I can map out quickly
7) it would take me 6-8 hours to route everything
8) so my call today is 2487 for NY
9) and this time you don't have to sell 2487
10) BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN YOU SHOULDN'T RAISE STOPS EVERY NOW AND THEN
11) that's a wrap until I wake up

Note

12) Gabe you can hold to 2530, bc I can see the route there
13) I don't have all the details, but enough to say it's ok to hold to 2530

Note

1) losing the blue line means wait it out.
2] that's all

Note

4) 1:16 PM NOTES
5) bears tried to take out this blue line 3 times to retest 2450
6) this is the pattern I was working on before a few charts up

Note

2:12, I'm waiting for waves to turn so I can map.
7) once you lost the blue line the second time
8) you have to wait the set up
9) we lost it 3 times
10) there's nothing to do except WAIT FOR THE SETUP

Note

7/18: 3:17, 2442.14, and that's why we wait.
1) what happens now
2) I am pretty sure that' as much it's going to drop
3) BUT WE DON'T GO IN UNTIL WE HAVE THE SETUP READY
4) unless you want to buy and hold to 8/20 (this is a pretty good entry)
5) otherwise we can wrap up this post
6) this is the end of the freebies
7) I know it didn't work out this time
8) next time I have a setup that is fire, I will post it general audience
9) so for the people that say they can't afford it, I'll help you get there
10) other wise this is wrap up for general audience
11) if you want to find me, link is right below here
12) for everyone already in you have until midnight to decide to stay or not
13) if you are not staying, leave on your own
14) bc if I remove you, the system is weird when you go back in
15) that is it for this post
16) have a good one

Note

7/19/ 1:38 PM: I said I would give you the next trade that's fire.
1) so you would make the $ for the fees
2) so here it is:
a) short 2399 RGHT NOW AS I TYPE
b) hold tight until 2333
c) that may take 3 days.
d) if you have patience
e) hold to 2285, this may take 4-5 days
r) the last part is always super annoying to wait for wrap up 285
g) it's easy
h) this can finish as early as 7/24
i) late is 7/26.
j) the 2-WAY VOL down to 2285 will be limitted
k) after u cover 2285, send me a message bc the links dot work after I remove you

Note

7/20, 10:02 PM
a) newswire gotta be worth 10-15 points of bounce
b) high should come before London-preopen so 1 AM ET Monday
c) so there's 60 points you can close 12 hours after the high
d) followed by 3 days sideways
e) and some kind of a crash Thursday to Friday
f) if bulls fight hard enough before Thursday
g) then the "crash" is more of a mini crash around 100 points

Note

2:26 PM Biden is out.
16) hold that thought
17) that's pretty big news '
18) that complicates things so PLANS ON HOLD
19) more so bc I don't have time to post here
20) my group comes first
END OF POST

Note

HERE'S THE THE TRADE THAT'S FIRE SO YOU CAN PAY FOR THE SUB:

3000 BY HALLOWEEN, 9-1, 2570 (8/20) AND 2670 (9/15), WORK UP

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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3100 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 8-3, SWING TO TO 2520

by Binary_Forecasting_Service

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