GOLD corrects, recovers and stabilizes

Updated

XAUUSD recovered and stabilized after a significant correction yesterday. At one point, gold dropped sharply by about 33 US Dollars, but up to now, the recovery momentum has helped gold return to a short-term technical uptrend.

The August manufacturing PMI index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday remained below 50, a sign of economic slowdown. However, the employment component of the report improved slightly.
ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 from 46.8 in August, below expectations of 47.5.
After the release of the ISM report, US 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) fell, leading to a weakening of the USD. Affected by the decline in US bond yields and the USD, gold prices recovered after hitting a low of 2,473 USD/ounce.

This week will continue to be highly volatile due to the impact of a series of US economic data with the release of JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data to be released.
• JOLTS U.S. job openings are expected to be 8.1 million in July, down from 8.184 million in June.
• US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July.
• In addition, employment growth in US non-farm payrolls in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.

If the US jobs report is weaker than expected, it will prompt market assessments of faster interest rate cuts to reappear, which will further support gold prices and continue to create pressure on investors. with USD.

Data Week, attention to jobs gets special attention from the Fed

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold had a significant correction decline in yesterday's trading session, on the daily chart, the gold price still has enough room to rise, as it receives support from the confluence area of EMA21, Fibonacci extension 0.618% and the bottom edge of the price channel, a very important area for the short-term uptrend was noticed by readers in a short comment yesterday.

In the short term, if gold moves above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, there will be conditions for a new bullish cycle and the upside outlook for the weekly target is fixed at 2,531 – 2,544USD.

As long as gold remains above the EMA21, and within the price channel, it remains technically bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is showing signs of bending and pointing up, a signal that the bullish outlook is becoming positive.

During the day, gold's uptrend is noted by the same technical levels.
Support: 2,471 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2520

→Take Profit 1 2509
↨
→Take Profit 2 2504

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2455

→Take Profit 1 2466
↨
→Take Profit 2 2471

Note

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as investors braced for a monthly U.S. payrolls report that could influence how swiftly and deeply the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year.

Note

Since the labor market is no longer overheating and both actual and expected inflation are cooling, we expect the FOMC to lower interest rates by 25 bps in each meeting from September to June 2025, this will be followed by two 25 bps cuts in the second half of 2025. This will eventually put interest rates in the range of 3.00-3.25% (previously 3.75-4.00%) by the end of 2025.

Note

Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly 2 weeks on Wednesday (September 4), extending the decline for the fourth consecutive session, as the market forecast that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates. slightly at this month's policy meeting.

Note

Jobs data is coming, GOLD recovers around 2,500USD

Note

Gold prices traded back above $2,500 on Thursday after recovering from the previous day's low of $2,471, following the release of lower-than-expected July job openings data from the US, sparking New concerns about the possibility of a "hard landing". Gold prices recovered after the release of weaker-than-expected US employment data.

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Note

On September 12 (Thursday), analysts and markets all agreed that the ECB would reduce interest rates by 25 bps. Adjustments in the labor market and economic activity since the June meeting, especially the deceleration in wage growth, have reinforced confidence that inflation is on track toward the target level.

Note

World gold prices rebounded past the threshold of 2,500 USD/oz in the trading session on Thursday (September 5), when gloomy data on the US economy increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut strong interest rates in the upcoming meeting. During Friday's session, gold prices may fluctuate if the US August employment report has numbers beyond forecasts - according to analysts.

Note

This week, the JOLTS report on job vacancies released Wednesday showed a decline. Next, yesterday's ADP employment report also disappointed when it was lower than expected. Not to mention, the ISM employment index also showed a slight decrease compared to expectations, further reinforcing the assessment of a cooling labor market.

Note

World gold prices fell sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 6), slipping from the 2,500 USD/oz mark, after the US Department of Labor released the August employment report. Although these statistics are worse Expectations, the market increased bets on the possibility of the Fed choosing a smaller interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, leading to devaluation pressure on gold.

Note

Data recently released by the China Foreign Exchange Administration shows that the country's gold reserves as of the end of August 2024 were 72.8 million ounces, remaining the same as at the end of July and unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. next. Previously, the People's Bank of China (PBoc, the central bank) increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months.

Note

After a week dominated by employment data, the gold market will continue to wait for the inflation report with the most important data being the US August CPI published this Wednesday morning (September 11). .

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