XAU/USD FALSE BREAKOUT AND CLOSE BACK AROUND $1915

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Last week it was noted that “if tensions between Russia and Ukraine spill into outright war, gold prices may be able to reach the June 2021 high set at 1916.62 quickly.” Trading at 1924.92 when this report was written, gold prices have achieved their first upside target following their bullish breakout earlier this month. It’s worth noting that the daily candle appears to be shaping up as a shooting star with a long upper wick, suggesting that a new range between 1916.62 and 1974.49 may emerge. A drop below 1916.62 would likely only transpire once Russian troops vacate Ukrainian territory.

XAU/USD skyrocketed overnight, breaking above the key resistance zone of 1915, marked by the peak of June 1st. With the precious metal being in a strong rally mode since January 28th, when it hit the upside support line, traders will consider the near-term picture to be positive.

When writing, the metal looks to be heading towards the 1960 zone, which provided resistance on November 9th, 2020, and January 6th, 2021. The investors believe that the bulls may take a break after testing that critical zone. However, as long as any potential retreat stays limited above 1890, we could expect another round of buying and perhaps a break above 1960. Such a break could see scope for extensions towards the 2015 territory, defined as s resistance.

On the downside, a dip below 1870, marked by the inside swing, could signal a more significant correction lower, with the next potential stop perhaps being the low that same day, at 1830. If that level doesn’t hold, we could see declines towards the low at the 1800 zone.


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