Last week, the gold market experienced an explosive rise, with a weekly increase of up to $290, reaching a record high of $3,245. This extreme market was mainly driven by three factors: the breakout and downward movement of the US dollar index (a weekly decline of 2.3%), the continued rise in geopolitical risk premiums, and the market's strong expectations for the Fed's policy shift. The current technical side shows typical bullish acceleration characteristics, with the weekly chart showing a real big positive line, and the daily chart maintaining a strong three-consecutive positive pattern, and no top reversal signal has yet appeared.
Technical analysis
Support system:
Short-term support: 3200 (10-day moving average + psychological barrier)
Medium-term support: 3180-3150 (trend conversion zone)
Long-term defense: 3080 (bullish lifeline)
Resistance system:
Recent high: 3245
Theoretical target: 3291 (channel extension)
Psychological barrier: 3300
Indicator verification:
The weekly MACD red column continues to increase in volume
The daily RSI (14) remains above the 70 overbought zone
The 4-hour moving average system presents a standard bullish arrangement (5>10>20>60)
Morphological characteristics:
The weekly line forms a "one pillar supporting the sky" bullish pattern
The daily line closed positive for 11 consecutive trading days
The 4-hour chart presents a bull market structure of "higher highs and higher lows"
Professional trading strategy
Trend following strategy:
Ideal long range: 3200-3180
Stop loss setting: Below 3175 (structural break)
Target level:
3245 (previous high test)
3291 (channel target)
3300 (psychological barrier)
Position management: adopt 3-5% pyramid position increase strategy
Breakthrough trading strategy:
Buy more after effective breakthrough of 3245 (position 2%)
Stop loss setting: below 3230
Target: 3291-3300 area
Key risk control points
Adjustment signal monitoring:
Single-day negative line entity > 2%
Close below the 5-day moving average for two consecutive days
4-hour MACD shows top divergence
Position management principles:
Total risk exposure < 5%
First position 3%, breakout position increase 2%
Use moving stop loss to protect profits
Focus this week
Macro risk events:
Speech by Fed officials (June 5)
ECB interest rate decision (June 6)
U.S. non-farm data (June 7)
Technical nodes:
3200 integer defense
3245 previous high breakthrough confirmation
3291 channel target test
Operational suggestions: The current volatility index (VIX) remains high. It is recommended to use limit orders to enter the market and cooperate with OCO orders to manage risks. In breakthrough transactions, it is necessary to wait for the 4-hour K-line closing confirmation to avoid the emergence of false breakthrough traps.
Professional reminder: In extreme market conditions, it is necessary to maintain discipline, strictly follow the principles of trend trading, and focus on changes in COMEX gold futures positions. If commercial short hedging positions increase, it may indicate short-term adjustment risks. In addition, it is recommended to maintain 30% cash reserves to cope with sudden fluctuations.
Technical analysis
Support system:
Short-term support: 3200 (10-day moving average + psychological barrier)
Medium-term support: 3180-3150 (trend conversion zone)
Long-term defense: 3080 (bullish lifeline)
Resistance system:
Recent high: 3245
Theoretical target: 3291 (channel extension)
Psychological barrier: 3300
Indicator verification:
The weekly MACD red column continues to increase in volume
The daily RSI (14) remains above the 70 overbought zone
The 4-hour moving average system presents a standard bullish arrangement (5>10>20>60)
Morphological characteristics:
The weekly line forms a "one pillar supporting the sky" bullish pattern
The daily line closed positive for 11 consecutive trading days
The 4-hour chart presents a bull market structure of "higher highs and higher lows"
Professional trading strategy
Trend following strategy:
Ideal long range: 3200-3180
Stop loss setting: Below 3175 (structural break)
Target level:
3245 (previous high test)
3291 (channel target)
3300 (psychological barrier)
Position management: adopt 3-5% pyramid position increase strategy
Breakthrough trading strategy:
Buy more after effective breakthrough of 3245 (position 2%)
Stop loss setting: below 3230
Target: 3291-3300 area
Key risk control points
Adjustment signal monitoring:
Single-day negative line entity > 2%
Close below the 5-day moving average for two consecutive days
4-hour MACD shows top divergence
Position management principles:
Total risk exposure < 5%
First position 3%, breakout position increase 2%
Use moving stop loss to protect profits
Focus this week
Macro risk events:
Speech by Fed officials (June 5)
ECB interest rate decision (June 6)
U.S. non-farm data (June 7)
Technical nodes:
3200 integer defense
3245 previous high breakthrough confirmation
3291 channel target test
Operational suggestions: The current volatility index (VIX) remains high. It is recommended to use limit orders to enter the market and cooperate with OCO orders to manage risks. In breakthrough transactions, it is necessary to wait for the 4-hour K-line closing confirmation to avoid the emergence of false breakthrough traps.
Professional reminder: In extreme market conditions, it is necessary to maintain discipline, strictly follow the principles of trend trading, and focus on changes in COMEX gold futures positions. If commercial short hedging positions increase, it may indicate short-term adjustment risks. In addition, it is recommended to maintain 30% cash reserves to cope with sudden fluctuations.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.