Short

RIGHT NOW 023 - IRAN ATTACKS TONIGHT

Updated

Red and black bold lines cross at 2425. After the reaction top 2430 area, it's coming back down. Wednesday its the most bearish day for trend and pattern. The window to break the 44-year trend line is a small one. If dragged to Thursday, then the whole pattern can shift up again.

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6:58 PM ET, Le'ts discuss the important things first:
1) despite the move down, ,checking 2365
2) the window for 1 more up shift of the trend curve
3) remain open
4) meaning this 100-DAY draft:

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100 DAY GENERIC WITH 700 POINTS OF ONE WAY VOL

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5) this draft has one more possible shift coming up as a result of war news
6) delayed or not
7) because the move has already been delayed
8) if it's delayed again
9) then the check doesn't make it down pas 2370
10) then the entire curve up shifts, it won't be 2900 though
11) but in place of 2785 october high, you would get 2840
12) and then a bit higher for November

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13) this gets decided next 3 days
14) as for silver...

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15) this draft may seem like it's off
16) but after Wednesday the trend will shift to catch up like this:

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17) so that pattern is set
18) it's going to shift right a day or two
19) but the overall pattern for both gold and silver "is in"
20) with several days left to judge how big this war will be if any

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21) I don't have a lot to add right now
22) if the're is no war head line
23) this will hit 2355 on Tuesday
24) and odds of moving under 2318 increase
25) conversely, the binary for this situation
26) is an early break of red line and a 2355 floor

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12:11, so let me state clearly the situation
1) this setup is VERY VERY BINARY
2) but binary between the top range and bottom range of what should be
3) the late October to early November high, so let's call that the PRE-ELECTION HIGH
4) which WITH ZERO WAR PREMIUM would land 2800
5) so with war premium would be 2900-3000
6) if you play the 100-day plan for gold, it implies 2800 BUT FOR RIGHT NOW ONLY
7) WE DON'T KNOW HOW BIG THE HEADLINES WILL BE TOMORROW
8) so what I am I saying?
9) I am saying that that if the headline is big enough you are not going to go under 2355
10) and THAT is enough for 2875 November high
11) which means the result of price action from here to Thursday
12) will land a route closer to #022 (previous route to 2520-2595)
13) ultimately this part is truly unknowable
14) bc we are already late for prices under 2355
15) odds of that happening move decrease substantially with each passing day
16) we are going to get a route similar to 100-day chart
17) but how much shifting up (and there should be some) is not clear
18) but what is clear is ITS UNLIKELY TO BE ZERO SHIFT UP

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1:15 AM, I'm lights out. Watch black red lines if the bounce come. Watch 3 AM (105 minutes out) for rug pull if no news come. That's where it started last night too.

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1:00 PM - I have been watching news more.
a) if you play chart at top
b) it's closest to "no war headline adjustment"
c) and as long as there is not one
d) this continues to move to move to 2318
e) while the 2303 floor is now 2307
f) due Wednesday (tomorrow) so within 36 hours
g) AS LONG AS NO WAR HEADLINE
h) my suspicion is the headline shows up at 2307

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8:56 PM 2384.xx this is moving down a bit too slow now...
a) meaning it is losing downward momentum
b) if shorting, tighten up your stops

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c) this new TradingView format is really annoying
d) they removed the scrolling when you are opening a post in the same screen
e) which makes updating on the go kind of a nightmare

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9:02 PM, 2386.XX
a) the floor has been rising
b) 2308-2325
c) with the likely low now around 2316

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d) but it's not likely low 2316
e) it's more like "likely low if 2355 breaks" should be 2316

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11:03 PM, 2383.72
1) be VERY careful here
2) the red down trend line is your risk manager
3) I'm working on it now
4) should have something within 2 hours

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Binary_Forecasting_Service

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RIGHT NOW #022

by Binary_Forecasting_Service

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