Analysis of gold trend on December 10
Updated
News analysis:
China's central bank purchases gold: China's central bank resumed buying gold after a six-month hiatus, indicating its long-term bullish outlook on gold, which has strengthened the market's bullish sentiment and provided support for gold prices.
Expectations of global central bank easing: The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank are all likely to cut interest rates, and loose monetary policies are often good for gold. As an interest-free asset, gold is often more attractive in a low-interest rate environment.
Geopolitical risks: The war in Syria continues and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been resolved. Geopolitical uncertainty has increased the market's demand for gold as a safe haven, further pushing up gold prices.
Technical analysis:
Price breakthrough: The price of gold rose strongly on Monday, reaching a maximum of 2,676$, breaking through the recent resistance range ($2,655-2,660), showing that the bulls in the market are strong and may continue to push gold prices higher.
Support and resistance:
Support level: The current support level for gold is around $2,650, which is an area where prices may be supported when they pull back.
Resistance: $2676 is the recent resistance level, and it may continue to rise to $2689 and $2696/2697 after breaking through.
Operational suggestions:
2675 is not broken: If the gold price pulls back to the $2674-75 area, you can consider shorting, with a stop loss set at $2678 and a target price in the $2660-2650 range.
2675 breakthrough: If the gold price breaks through $2675 and enters the vicinity of $2676-77, you can consider going long, with a stop loss at $2670 and a target price of $2685. If the breakthrough continues, you can hold it.
Summary: The current gold market is supported by multiple positive factors, especially central bank policies and geopolitical risks. Technically, the gold price has broken through the key resistance level. If it remains strong in the future, it may rise further, but there is also a certain risk of a correction in the short term. Investors can flexibly operate according to the breakthrough of support and resistance levels.
Trade active
Gold continued to rise in early trading in Asia, with the highest touching the 2704 line and then oscillating above 2700. However, a wave of market crashes in Asia at noon caused gold to instantly retreat, with the lowest retreating to around the 2675 line.
We have given a trading strategy of long on the 2686 line and covering positions on the 2677 line. The bulls have now hit the 2690 line and are oscillating above it. Long orders are making profits across the board. Our goal is to see short-term suppression on the 2705-10 line. From a technical point of view, It is still a long trend to step back, don’t be fooled by the short-term pullback stimulated by the news. Friends who have not done long can still continue to go long if they step back to 2677-80.
Judging from the current 4-hour analysis, the short-term pressure at the top is focused on the top of 2715-20, and the short-term pressure at the bottom is focused on the first-line support of 2675-82, focusing on the 2660 first-line mark of the long-short watershed. In terms of operation, the main method is to step back and go long, and shorting can only be done at key points. Enter the market in a bit, and move in and out quickly, without being reluctant to fight.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Buy when gold falls back to 2676-2682, stop loss at 2669, target at 2710-15;
Trade closed: target reached
On Wednesday, December 11, spot gold continued to rise in the Asian session, initially breaking through the range of fluctuations in the past two weeks, supported by the rising geopolitical tensions and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut next week. At the same time, the market turned its attention to the US inflation data on Wednesday.
This trading day focuses on the US November unadjusted CPI annual rate data, or the interest rate decision of the Bank of Canada. The market expects a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei spoke on recent developments in the Middle East, and investors also need to pay attention.
Gold trend analysis:
Today, the focus is on the release of CPI data. The geopolitical situation is still the dominant factor in gold trends. From the perspective of the market, the price of gold continued to rise again yesterday. Although the physical price did not close under the suppression of the upper track of the Bollinger Band, the strong pattern and the boost from the news continued the rebound this morning. In particular, the current price stabilized above 2690, the cyclical indicators followed the upward development, and the Bollinger Band opening continued to rise. In conjunction with the short-term favorable pattern formed by the geopolitical situation, the daily line maintained a bullish mindset.
In terms of 4 hours, yesterday's rebound continued to close positively, and today's Asian session bottomed out and rebounded to continue to strengthen. The development of cyclical indicators tends to be bullish, and the short-term moving average also maintains an upward trend. However, before the 2700 mark is effectively stabilized, the 4-hour bullish trend will not chase the rise.
Operational ideas: In terms of operation, it is recommended to buy more at low levels as the main operation strategy, and short sell at high levels as a supplement. For the support below, pay attention to the 2688 area first, and continue to look at the 2715-2720 area above to prevent the negative impact of CPI data. Secondly, focus on the area around 2675 where you can participate in long orders. For the upper side, pay attention to the short-term suppression of 2719 and try short selling. Focus on the resistance around 2732 during the day.
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