Weekly Analysis 11 Sep -15 Sep 2023
#DXY (Dollar Index) is setting its sights on the target level of 105.340. It's anticipated that the index could surge from 105.00 to 105.34 in the short term.
This robust upward movement might be followed by a pullback to the range of 104.5 - 104.000, potentially impacting both the gold and forex markets.
However, taking into account the regulatory stance in the United States, there's a possibility that the dollar index could strengthen to reach 107.99 in the medium term.
Thoughts on XAUUSD / GOLD
GOLD → Fictitious breakdown and retest offer mid-term objectives
There's a considerable amount of upcoming news in the following week, and it's advisable to keep an eye on the following dates:
September 13:
Core CPI
CPI (Month-over-Month) & (Year-over-Year)
September 14:
Core Retail Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
PPI (Producer Price Index)
On a global scale, we observe a broadly horizontal and flat pattern. Currently, there's potential for a decline towards 1800 in the medium term, and even further down to 1700 or 1600 in the long term. Conventional trading strategies define the trading potential within this flat pattern.
On the daily chart, we observe a false breakdown of the descending channel resistance. After two bearish candles, the market forms a shakeout and retests the trend resistance. However, a new signal emerges in the form of a candlestick pattern with a long candle, suggesting a bearish market sentiment.
The local support level stands at 1915. In the first half of the trading week, there's a likelihood of the market testing this area, with a high probability of a breakout and the realization of accumulated potential for further decline towards the lower boundary of the channel or flat pattern.
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