GOLD - "25" The day when we test back
Updated
This idea is not a call. It just shows a possible scenario for those who missed my Dec.4. call - so They can enter a long position- or for those traders who entered but want to add to an existing position.
Two days before Santa I called the intermediate bottom in this idea:
Now I'm starting to see many analysts who are calling for an unlimited rally in gold based on the trendline break , or based on indicators. Is it good to buy at this point?
My system gave the buy signal on the 4th of December. But what can someone do who missed that point?
It's always tough to give an entry point when the intermediate advance already in play. Right now we are in this situation.
Of course you can enter right here , right now at 1951$ in the heavily overbought conditions because I guarantee you gold will rally above 2100$ in a few weeks.
But if you enter here we might drop into a DCL and before we would rally you have to survive a nasty drop. If you enter a big position you might get margin called at the exact bottom.
So those who enter here have to be prepared for correction. It may or may not come.
We are on day 25. It's an important number in the first daily cycle. It means price rallied for 5 weeks. In many first daily cycles this is the point where the early bulls decide to take profits .
In 2016 when the new bull market started every daily cycle topped around day 20-25:
In 2017 also the 20-25 was the important number for the daily cycle top:
In 2020 spring-summer the first daily cycle topped on day 20 and the second on day 19:
But there are also first daily cycles what topped on day 35 -40:
Like the one in 2019-2020 winter:
or the one in 2018 autumn-winter:
So there is decent chance at this point price backtests the trendline or the 10 EMA in the following 3-4 days.
If the rally continues we will have a daily cycle top only 2 weeks later.
If you want to enter I suggest to wait for the first DCL.
I will use that point to add to my long position.
Two days before Santa I called the intermediate bottom in this idea:
Now I'm starting to see many analysts who are calling for an unlimited rally in gold based on the trendline break , or based on indicators. Is it good to buy at this point?
My system gave the buy signal on the 4th of December. But what can someone do who missed that point?
It's always tough to give an entry point when the intermediate advance already in play. Right now we are in this situation.
Of course you can enter right here , right now at 1951$ in the heavily overbought conditions because I guarantee you gold will rally above 2100$ in a few weeks.
But if you enter here we might drop into a DCL and before we would rally you have to survive a nasty drop. If you enter a big position you might get margin called at the exact bottom.
So those who enter here have to be prepared for correction. It may or may not come.
We are on day 25. It's an important number in the first daily cycle. It means price rallied for 5 weeks. In many first daily cycles this is the point where the early bulls decide to take profits .
In 2016 when the new bull market started every daily cycle topped around day 20-25:
In 2017 also the 20-25 was the important number for the daily cycle top:
In 2020 spring-summer the first daily cycle topped on day 20 and the second on day 19:
But there are also first daily cycles what topped on day 35 -40:
Like the one in 2019-2020 winter:
or the one in 2018 autumn-winter:
So there is decent chance at this point price backtests the trendline or the 10 EMA in the following 3-4 days.
If the rally continues we will have a daily cycle top only 2 weeks later.
If you want to enter I suggest to wait for the first DCL.
I will use that point to add to my long position.
Note
I think we can assume the daily cycle topped on day 25.Note
That was fast. Trendline backtested:Note
Note
Opened more long position in the drop:This is the point where you need to add.
Trade closed manually
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