XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

Updated

Gold prices are on a roll, climbing for the third consecutive quarter! What's driving this surge? 👀 It's all about inflation and the Federal Reserve.

This gain comes after a key U.S. inflation gauge, favored by the Federal Reserve, was broadly in line with expectations, fueling hopes of potential interest rate cuts by September.

On Friday, market sentiment shifted as traders bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by September and again in December. This speculation followed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index report, which showed no inflation rise from April to May. The PCE's steady data and moderate consumer spending have influenced this outlook.

Despite Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's neutral stance on rate cuts and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's positive remarks on current policy effectiveness, the market remains hopeful. Economic indicators, including declining business spending on equipment and a widening goods trade deficit, underscore a slowing economic momentum. This, combined with a weakened dollar and falling benchmark 10-year yields, has made gold more attractive to investors.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in an 89% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 64% before the latest inflation data release. This video will show you how I plan to position for the next move in the gold market.

XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we take a detailed look at the XAUUSD chart, combining both technical and fundamental perspectives.

Our attention is still fixed on the key level at $2,330 for the upcoming week, historically significant and poised to steer trading dynamics. A sustained momentum above this mark could fuel further buying interest, potentially paving the way for fresh highs. Conversely, a bearish tilt below $2,330 might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.

Join me as we break down these factors and explore potential trading opportunities in the gold market. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with my latest analysis and insights.

#GoldPrices #XAUUSD #MarketAnalysis #FedRateCut #TradingStrategy #EconomicIndicators #ForexTrading #Investment #MarketSentiment #CMEFedWatch #FinancialNews📺🔔💼

Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Note

As the new month begins, Gold prices oscillate within a range-bound structure, reflecting mixed fundamental cues. Market participants appear to be hesitant to place aggressive directional bets due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, leading to subdued, range-bound price action.

Friday's key US inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and December. However, recent hawkish comments from Fed officials indicate that the central bank is not in a hurry to reduce rates.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing a corrective pullback from its recent peak following the US PCE data, which has the potential to support Gold prices. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding France's snap election provide further support for the safe-haven asset.

In preparation for today's activity, a new structure has emerged around the week's key level at $2,330. How the market reacts to this zone will be crucial in determining the direction of price action. We will discuss this market dynamic in detail during our upcoming live session.

Happy new month

Trade active

#XAUUSD

As discussed during our live session this morning; two buy positions are now active. Secure some profit

Trade closed manually

#XAUUSD

Current Market Dynamics:

All buy positions have been closed as selling pressure persists around the descending trendline identified on the 4-hour timeframe. The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI report has fallen below market expectations, indicating a contraction in the US manufacturing sector. In theory, this should bolster the value of gold. However, the inability of buyers to successfully break out of the descending trendline suggests that market participants are hesitant to take aggressive positions ahead of the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech tomorrow.

Technical Analysis:

The descending trendline remains a critical resistance level on the chart. Despite the fundamental support from the weak PMI data, the technical structure indicates caution. The market's reluctance to break this trendline could signal underlying uncertainty or a wait-and-see approach by traders ahead of the Fed chair speech tomorrow.

Strategic Recommendations:

Maintain Caution: Given the persistent selling pressure and upcoming Fed speech, it is prudent to remain cautious.
Secure Profits Early: Ensure to lock in profits as soon as the price moves in favor to mitigate potential losses from sudden market reversals.
Monitor Key Levels: Keep a close watch on the descending trendline and levels on the chart for potential trading opportunities.

In summary, while the chart structure remains valid for new trading opportunities, the current market sentiment calls for careful risk management and attentiveness to upcoming economic events.

Trade closed manually

Gold has struggled to find demand as investors adjust their positions ahead of this week's key macroeconomic events and data releases. With the US JOLTs Job Openings data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for later today, gold buyers are expected to turn cautious.

The strength of the US Dollar has been a significant factor exerting downward pressure on gold prices. As the dollar gains traction, it makes gold less attractive to investors. Additionally, the generally positive tone around the equity markets is contributing to the movement of investment flows away from gold.

Traders are currently awaiting more cues about the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path, which adds to the prevailing uncertainty. This has led many market participants to prefer moving to the sidelines ahead of the key events. The anticipation of Powell's speech today and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday is keeping traders from making aggressive bets at this juncture.

In light of these developments, the newly identified ascending trendline on the 1-hour timeframe will serve as our guide for decision-making today. This trendline provides a technical framework within which we can navigate the market's movements.

While gold faces downward pressure from a stronger US Dollar and positive equity market sentiment, the upcoming macroeconomic events will play a crucial role in determining the future direction of gold prices [charts indicate potential levels for entry].

Good Morning

Note

#XAUUSD

In anticipation of the Fed Chair's speech today, we have a new structural set up on the 15 Min timeframe.

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Sell position triggered; secure position

Trade active

Gold prices (XAU/USD) gained fresh bids during the Asian session, building on the previous day's rebound ahead of today's US macroeconomic data releases.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks yesterday reaffirmed market bets that the US central bank may begin its rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting. Additionally, concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth, persistent geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in the US and Europe are acting as supportive factors for gold prices.

However, the upside for gold appears limited as traders may prefer to wait for more clarity on the Fed's future policy decisions. The focus will remain on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, the ADP report on private-sector employment, and the ISM Services PMI later today. These reports will influence near-term US Dollar (USD) dynamics and provide fresh directional impetus for gold prices.

Despite potential limitations, the current fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is to the upside. Any meaningful corrective slide could be viewed as a buying opportunity.

In light of these developments, a new structure on the 1-hour timeframe will guide our trading decisions today. We will discuss the current market dynamics in detail during our upcoming live session.

Good Morning

Trade active

UPDATE

As discussed during our live session this morning; another buy position triggered at the $2,347.50 level. Secure some profit now as we look out for new trading opportunity.

Trade active

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Secure some profit now as we hope to add another buy position

Trade active

UPDATE

Trade closed manually

All buy positions have been closed in profit as Gold prices reversed early gains and traded cautiously during the Asian session amid potential thin liquidity due to the US Independence Day holiday.

The strong bullish sentiment across global equity markets is acting as a headwind for safe-haven assets like gold. However, sustained US Dollar weakness and sluggish US Treasury bond yields are keeping the downside in Gold prices capped. At this juncture, traders are reluctant to make aggressive moves ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Additionally, minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed that most policymakers believe US economic growth is gradually cooling. This led to an overnight slump in US Treasury bond yields and dragged the US Dollar to a three-week low, potentially lending support to Gold prices.

We will monitor price action to identify the next direction for Gold. Will there be a retracement into the buy window identified on the chart, or will there be a transition into an uptrend continuation pattern? Patience and vigilance are key as we continue to observe the market.

Good Morning

Trade active

Gold prices are holding steady as US traders return from the Independence Day holiday, with anticipation building ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh market impetus. The price action is consolidating near a two-week high following renewed buying activity during the Asian session.

Recent softer US macroeconomic data has increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates soon. This sentiment has contributed to a four-day decline in the US Dollar (USD).

Despite the USD's weakness, the prevailing risk-on environment could limit significant rallies in the safe-haven gold price. Investors' preference for riskier assets might cap gold's upside potential in the short term.

Traders are likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report today. This report is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Fed's future policy decisions, impacting USD demand and providing fresh directional impetus for the gold market.

Given the current market dynamics, it is prudent to secure some profits ahead of the anticipated US macroeconomic data release. We will delve deeper into the market conditions and discuss potential trading strategies during our upcoming live session.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we navigate these pivotal moments in the market.

Good Morning

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Uptrend continuation set-up identified ahead of the upcoming NFP; please secure all existing buy position

Trade active

Note

Below is the follow-up detail to the XAU/USD as we prepare for the new trading week [8th - 12th July 2024].

Note

Below is the follow-up detail to the XAU/USD as we prepare for the new trading week [15th - 19th July 2024].

darcsherry

Trade smart. Trade consciously

Also on:

Related publications

XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

by darcsherry

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.