Is gold back to the top?
Updated
On Thursday (April 27), the United States announced that the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data was significantly lower than expected, but the core PCE in the first quarter rose, supporting the Fed to continue raising interest rates in May. Spot gold fell by more than US
11 to US$1986.44 per ounce, with a cumulative fluctuation of nearly US$17.
The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP in the first quarter of the United States was 1.10%, which was significantly lower than the expected value of 2% and the previous value of 2.60%; And expectations were 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points higher.
CNBC commented on the initial value of the real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the first quarter of the United States: In the first three months of this year, the US economic growth slowed down sharply, mainly due to rising interest rates and inflation. It is widely expected that the US economy will decelerate further in the future.
I think the market is paying close attention to the extent to which economic activity slowed down in the first quarter. "There's no question the U.S. economy is slowing, but the pace matters. A deceleration to 2% would be the market's best hope - a sustained expansion without fear of an impending recession, which was characteristic of the post-08 financial crisis "The new normal". But a larger slowdown would raise concerns of a recession from further Fed rate hikes."
Negative signal:
The Fed is expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points next week. Since last March, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 475 basis points from near zero to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. But the stamina for U.S. economic growth appears to have weakened significantly as the impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes has spread. Moreover, the banking turmoil triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March reminded the market that the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has had a negative impact on financing conditions, and the tightening of credit conditions has increased the risk of a US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
U.S. retail sales slumped in February and March after surging 3 percent in January, with economists blaming the unusual performance of consumption in January to unseasonably mild weather and difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations. Separately, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday (April 26) that orders for nondefense durable goods, excluding aircraft, fell for the second straight month in March.
Consumers were buoyed by a strong job market and rising wages, which helped offset high prices. Consumer spending has been resilient in the face of higher prices and higher borrowing costs. But spending could weaken further amid warnings of layoffs, bank failures and a possible recession.
"The signal from capital spending, dragged down by rising borrowing costs, is about the overall dynamics of business behaviour, including signals related to labor demand," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan in New York.
Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York, said: "It is worth considering how much momentum there is at the end of the first quarter ... After all, many companies may be hesitant to invest after the violent turmoil in the banking sector, and they may face tighter credit conditions. "
11 to US$1986.44 per ounce, with a cumulative fluctuation of nearly US$17.The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP in the first quarter of the United States was 1.10%, which was significantly lower than the expected value of 2% and the previous value of 2.60%; And expectations were 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points higher.
CNBC commented on the initial value of the real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the first quarter of the United States: In the first three months of this year, the US economic growth slowed down sharply, mainly due to rising interest rates and inflation. It is widely expected that the US economy will decelerate further in the future.
I think the market is paying close attention to the extent to which economic activity slowed down in the first quarter. "There's no question the U.S. economy is slowing, but the pace matters. A deceleration to 2% would be the market's best hope - a sustained expansion without fear of an impending recession, which was characteristic of the post-08 financial crisis "The new normal". But a larger slowdown would raise concerns of a recession from further Fed rate hikes."
Negative signal:
The Fed is expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points next week. Since last March, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 475 basis points from near zero to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. But the stamina for U.S. economic growth appears to have weakened significantly as the impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes has spread. Moreover, the banking turmoil triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March reminded the market that the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has had a negative impact on financing conditions, and the tightening of credit conditions has increased the risk of a US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
U.S. retail sales slumped in February and March after surging 3 percent in January, with economists blaming the unusual performance of consumption in January to unseasonably mild weather and difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations. Separately, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday (April 26) that orders for nondefense durable goods, excluding aircraft, fell for the second straight month in March.
Consumers were buoyed by a strong job market and rising wages, which helped offset high prices. Consumer spending has been resilient in the face of higher prices and higher borrowing costs. But spending could weaken further amid warnings of layoffs, bank failures and a possible recession.
"The signal from capital spending, dragged down by rising borrowing costs, is about the overall dynamics of business behaviour, including signals related to labor demand," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan in New York.
Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York, said: "It is worth considering how much momentum there is at the end of the first quarter ... After all, many companies may be hesitant to invest after the violent turmoil in the banking sector, and they may face tighter credit conditions. "
Trade active
The gold market may rebound for a short period of time, and the support point will be around 1992. If it breaks through 1992, I suggest shorting. Sell.And take profit in 1985.Trade active
Now the balance of the gold trend is weak, and the direction can only be determined after a breakthrough, so it is not recommended for everyone to enter the market.
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