This continues directly from post #12. Considering what is happening in S&P 500 as well as silver, this should be the favorite right now with 46xx ceiling in April of 2026. Second place is 2960-3160 floor with 5000+ ceiling. I just do not see how we move "massively up" without some kind of wipe out in this window. As usual, I will add as we go. But be aware that I am very short on time and just because I see something does not mean I have time to write about it. SO USE THIS POST WITH CAUTION.
To sum it up, moving to 3500 this way puts a top in. There are fluctuating odds for a 3550 high which very well may happen in the following 3 days. Whatever the case maybe, it is my view that 3165 will become RESISTANCE by mid-May prior to sharp leg down to 2565 in June and maybe a second time in July. The red line breaking is signal for entry for 4600.
To sum it up, moving to 3500 this way puts a top in. There are fluctuating odds for a 3550 high which very well may happen in the following 3 days. Whatever the case maybe, it is my view that 3165 will become RESISTANCE by mid-May prior to sharp leg down to 2565 in June and maybe a second time in July. The red line breaking is signal for entry for 4600.
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04/22/25, 1:30 PM ET, 3400.XX after 3376 low BUT AFTER 3500 HIGH:1) so odds really favor "top in" but ....'
2) simultaneously favor one, or even two more tops to unwind the daily/weekly trends
3) after that gets un-winded, the first target should really be 3075
4) I have a lot I want to add about SPX, silver, etc....
5) but I do not have any time, so take it or leave it
6) have a good one
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4:19 PM ET, there are 2 routes down ....7) it's not obvious which one will play...
8) so... here are the differences
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9) so... I don't see how bears can take out 331510) this almost guarantees one more HIGHER high...
11) in any case, we need 3 highs that will stretch into first week of May
12) which PUSHES THE 2565 CHECK INTO MID JUNE
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13) TYPO.. MID JULY... 14) so this likely means 3585-3607 IS STILL IN PLAY
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5:58 PM ET, NOPE... I just proved the retrace is very unlikely to be more than 300 1) so what do we have now?
2) we have nothing ... NOTHING!
3) this is what is knowable:
a) first, this "top" is not obvious yet until it has 3 OR 4 tops
b) its ceiling is 3585-3607 AND IT DOES NOT HAVE TO HIT IT
c) so that helps none
d) and once top is "recognized"
e) a complete retrace would be 275, 280 draw down
f) anything higher is not likely
g) this means that price is aiming 5000-5500 for February high
h) so this post is dead immediately
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Ordinary-Human, we just gaped down to 3315 and it's not going anywhere bc: Note
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4/22, 8:21 PM ET, if we play fair with the patterns...a) it's 3340.59 as I type
b) this "900 point retrace" is alive
c) but it needs price to 3265 by NY tomorrow
d) to keep the odds realistic
e) I do not think 3295 is enough
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1) in chart above, ignore everything except black route2) we are in a very particular setup that does NOT ADD UP
3) so we can only go one step at a time
4) right now the door is open for 3265
5) this is extremely important bc it will keep all bear routes live
6) miss this window and the hard floor rises from to 2585 to...
7) everything under 3165 as very very unlikely
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8) but if bears make it to 3265 soon9) they can hit 3165 by Thurs in London
10) which keeps all options for bears alive
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4:48 PM, 4/23 current look:Note
10:37 PM ... CANNOT EXPLAIN SILVER RIGHT NOW 1) so I don't have a valid view
2) the end
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1) so it's 10:08 AM ET 4/242) bears have missed the first window for 3165
3) bears have missed second window for 3205
4) and price is barely leaning red outcomes
5) black is current extrapolation
6) while I have doubts rising in silver and sp500
7) to keep odds favoring bear outcome to 2565
8) we need to see 3205
9) we need to see statistically respectable ...
10) route to 3165 and 3075
11) other wise something else is going to happen
12) and honestly I can't add it all up
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13) in chart above, that's not the same as saying...14) I forecast silver to 26
15) because while gold dropped 7%
16) silver actually bounced up at the end
17) this is why I don't have a valid view
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10:15 PM SUN, 04/27/25 I HAVE A VALID VIEW1) but let's see 3205, 3165, and 3075 first
2) the speed to these targets determine the violence ....
3) from here to late June or early July
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4) the critical part is through first 3 weeks of May5) the live target is actually 2450...
6) but that seems so crazy to me
7) but that's what a liquidity crisis would produce
8) a rush for dollars
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9) for those that think gold can't move like that10) go look at January 1980
11) when gold hit its high and dropped 30% in a week
12) I am not saying gold will be at 2450 by May 21st
13) I am saying that is my max pain for liquidity crisis scenario
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10:19 AM , 4/28 short term chart says retest of 3500 first...1) this will kill the clock and set hard floor for May at 3225
2) probably enough to eliminate all medium term bear scenarios under 3165 as well
3) this is the end for this post
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11:19 PM, 3309.XX its not over until it's over...a) I don't know how to call this part
b) so I will just say what I was seeing
c) I saw a setup for 3517-3525 this morning
d) that was playing out until the last 3 hours or so
e) bulls are surrendering their breakout posture
f) so it looks like 3205 is still on the table this week
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g) I am not saying it's favoredh) I am saying bear case has not been eliminated
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.