Gold purely soaring on Fed's dovish surprise
Gold's general commentary: Fed Interest rate decision was timed in throughout yesterday's session as Gold was near multi-Month Low’s Bottom (rejecting any downside attempt), while #1,886.80 Resistance (now turned to Support) is line of utmost importance. I am expecting traditional Volatility on FOMC aftermath with usual spikes on both sides. As expected the Double Top delivered the Selling signal, the #1,861.80 Hourly 4 chart’s Support should be next pressure point as Trading should be performed below #1,886.80 Support once again. This should represent Bearish breakout on the Hourly 4 chart’s scale and should extend to at least the #1,852.80 local Low’s. Daily chart turned Neutral again and is largely thanks to the DX rejection on its Weekly chart’s Support + Investors not allowing early positioning after the High-impact news. I expect strong Bearish Daily chart’s candle shortly.
Fundamental analysis: Gold maintains the Neutral sentiment (remember throughout my remarks that I mentioned that Daily chart made a switch from Bearish to Neutral) from Monday's session Daily chart’s Support zone break, but the pace has slowed down as Gold should be already near #1,852.80 psychological barrier (fair estimate) if there wasn’t dovish surprise on Powell’s press conference. The Hourly 4 chart’s indicators are showing that Gold was Oversold and MACD was about to make a Bullish roll-over and I believe I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Medium-term trend stays Bearish though especially on the Fed minutes aftermath an with the DX still critically Bullish, Bond Yields rejected on #3-Week Top zone). I am not still confident with Buying as next Resistance is priced at #1,908.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #1,917.80 configuration (representing former multi-Month High's peak), as I haven't got any plans to Buy Gold unless #1,908.80 benchmark breaks and Gold comfortably closes the session above it.
Technical analysis: Gold has invalidated solid Descending Channel on Daily chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Higher Low’s (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Higher Low extensions ahead of full scale reversal). DX (# -1.00% almost) is again turning the market sentiment to Bullish (without full scale arising Buyers) on the Short-term, and according to my estimations, current Buying sequence was due to the strong Intra-day decline on DX, which is being aggressively Sold due to the dovish remarks by the Fed chair. Always keep in mind that in times of Gold corrections / pullbacks, Investors tend to purchase the DX as a safe-haven (as it happened in March #2020), which has in turn a negative reaction on Gold (holding negative correlation for those #2). Subsequently adding to the configuration that Bond Yields are aswell on promising uptrend, Gold Traders may witness aggressive takedown towards #1,852.80 - #1,861.80 Higher Low’s Upper zone extension (even this Trading week). But that largely depends upon the Fundamentals and how DX and Yields will continue the candles starting from today’s session. It is important to note that Gold is not rising proportionally with red candles on DX, and assuming that market could close once again below #1,886.80 Support, Selling sentiment is postponed, not invalidated.
My position: After the Fed decision, DX firstly spiked downwards, adding Buying pressure on Gold (way below my #1,881.80 Stop-loss) firstly, then DX delivered Bullish Gap fill, which reversed Gold's trend within minutes, testing #1,861.80 Support. I have used that chance to move my Stop-loss on breakeven, but Price-action once again reversed and triggered my breakeven Stop-loss, leaving me without order (on practical risk-free Trade I had). Now I am without an order, comfortably remaining on sidelines. There are #2 possibilities ahead: #1) Gold closing below #1,892.80 variance, invalidating #1,886.80 and #1,861.80 final Support zones ahead of #1,852.80 psychological barrier, where I will be ready to Sell on spot with multiple piercing Selling orders (#1,852.80 Target), and #2) Rejection on both DX and Bond Yields, where Gold may recover #5 - #10 additional points upwards where I will be ready to re-Sell Gold towards #1,900.80 barrier first, and #1,886.80 in extension. Bottom line, I won't be rushing with new order as I will await how market will digest Fed's outcome. I am more than satisfied with my current Trading results. If DX continues the recovery candles and Gold breaks #1,886.80, I might take my chances and re-Sell Gold early on towards #1,852.80 psychological barrier.
Fundamental analysis: Gold maintains the Neutral sentiment (remember throughout my remarks that I mentioned that Daily chart made a switch from Bearish to Neutral) from Monday's session Daily chart’s Support zone break, but the pace has slowed down as Gold should be already near #1,852.80 psychological barrier (fair estimate) if there wasn’t dovish surprise on Powell’s press conference. The Hourly 4 chart’s indicators are showing that Gold was Oversold and MACD was about to make a Bullish roll-over and I believe I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Medium-term trend stays Bearish though especially on the Fed minutes aftermath an with the DX still critically Bullish, Bond Yields rejected on #3-Week Top zone). I am not still confident with Buying as next Resistance is priced at #1,908.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #1,917.80 configuration (representing former multi-Month High's peak), as I haven't got any plans to Buy Gold unless #1,908.80 benchmark breaks and Gold comfortably closes the session above it.
Technical analysis: Gold has invalidated solid Descending Channel on Daily chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Higher Low’s (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Higher Low extensions ahead of full scale reversal). DX (# -1.00% almost) is again turning the market sentiment to Bullish (without full scale arising Buyers) on the Short-term, and according to my estimations, current Buying sequence was due to the strong Intra-day decline on DX, which is being aggressively Sold due to the dovish remarks by the Fed chair. Always keep in mind that in times of Gold corrections / pullbacks, Investors tend to purchase the DX as a safe-haven (as it happened in March #2020), which has in turn a negative reaction on Gold (holding negative correlation for those #2). Subsequently adding to the configuration that Bond Yields are aswell on promising uptrend, Gold Traders may witness aggressive takedown towards #1,852.80 - #1,861.80 Higher Low’s Upper zone extension (even this Trading week). But that largely depends upon the Fundamentals and how DX and Yields will continue the candles starting from today’s session. It is important to note that Gold is not rising proportionally with red candles on DX, and assuming that market could close once again below #1,886.80 Support, Selling sentiment is postponed, not invalidated.
My position: After the Fed decision, DX firstly spiked downwards, adding Buying pressure on Gold (way below my #1,881.80 Stop-loss) firstly, then DX delivered Bullish Gap fill, which reversed Gold's trend within minutes, testing #1,861.80 Support. I have used that chance to move my Stop-loss on breakeven, but Price-action once again reversed and triggered my breakeven Stop-loss, leaving me without order (on practical risk-free Trade I had). Now I am without an order, comfortably remaining on sidelines. There are #2 possibilities ahead: #1) Gold closing below #1,892.80 variance, invalidating #1,886.80 and #1,861.80 final Support zones ahead of #1,852.80 psychological barrier, where I will be ready to Sell on spot with multiple piercing Selling orders (#1,852.80 Target), and #2) Rejection on both DX and Bond Yields, where Gold may recover #5 - #10 additional points upwards where I will be ready to re-Sell Gold towards #1,900.80 barrier first, and #1,886.80 in extension. Bottom line, I won't be rushing with new order as I will await how market will digest Fed's outcome. I am more than satisfied with my current Trading results. If DX continues the recovery candles and Gold breaks #1,886.80, I might take my chances and re-Sell Gold early on towards #1,852.80 psychological barrier.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
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