GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 16 - Sep 20]
This week, 
XAUUSD increased quite sharply, from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,585 USD/oz and closed at 2,579 USD/oz.
The reason international gold prices increased sharply this week is because the market expects the FED to strongly cut interest rates at its meeting next week, with a cut of up to 50 percentage points. However, considering economic data and the current US economic situation, the FED can only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points.
This week, we saw the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 2.6% and down sharply from the increase of 2.5%. .9% in July. However, core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 3.2%, a slight increase compared to July's data.
Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, although this figure is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago.
In particular, GDP in the second quarter in the most recent adjustment increased to 3% over the same period last year, much higher than the previously announced 2.8%...
All of the above data shows that although the US economy has slowed down, inflation is cooling down, and the labor market is still difficult, it cannot fall into a short-term recession. Therefore, the FED will likely only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points.
In principle, when the FED cuts interest rates, gold prices will increase. However, the increase in gold prices next week will depend on the level of interest rate cuts by the FED. Currently, there is only about a 43% chance that the FED will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Therefore, if the FED only cuts interest rates by 25 percentage points, next week's gold price could still rise above the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz, but then will be under pressure from investors to sell and take profits. If the FED cuts interest rates by up to 50 percentage points, gold prices next week could increase far beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz.
While the Fed's decision will be the focus of the gold market next week, other important economic data could also cause some volatility in gold prices next week, such as manufacturing figures. , housing market and retail sales data.
In addition, after the FED's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their monetary policy decisions.
📌Technically, in the short term for the H4 technical chart, after a period of cumulative sideways movement, this week the gold price has broken out of the old peak at 2530 and far exceeded this resistance level. In the immediate future, the gold price will correct. Recovering the round resistance level of 2600. However, divergence signals have appeared on almost all time frames from Weekly, Daily, H4... (Divergence does not mean the price will decrease. Divergence in the financial market In general, the forex market in particular reflects that buyers are no longer interested in high prices. However, there has been no profit-taking action, so the price divergence gives us a warning not to participate buy more, although the price may continue to break to new highs)
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.530 – 2.561USD
Resistance: 2.613 – 2.582USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2605
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2523 - 2525⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2519
XAUUSD increased quite sharply, from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,585 USD/oz and closed at 2,579 USD/oz.The reason international gold prices increased sharply this week is because the market expects the FED to strongly cut interest rates at its meeting next week, with a cut of up to 50 percentage points. However, considering economic data and the current US economic situation, the FED can only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points.
This week, we saw the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 2.6% and down sharply from the increase of 2.5%. .9% in July. However, core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 3.2%, a slight increase compared to July's data.
Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, although this figure is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago.
In particular, GDP in the second quarter in the most recent adjustment increased to 3% over the same period last year, much higher than the previously announced 2.8%...
All of the above data shows that although the US economy has slowed down, inflation is cooling down, and the labor market is still difficult, it cannot fall into a short-term recession. Therefore, the FED will likely only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points.
In principle, when the FED cuts interest rates, gold prices will increase. However, the increase in gold prices next week will depend on the level of interest rate cuts by the FED. Currently, there is only about a 43% chance that the FED will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Therefore, if the FED only cuts interest rates by 25 percentage points, next week's gold price could still rise above the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz, but then will be under pressure from investors to sell and take profits. If the FED cuts interest rates by up to 50 percentage points, gold prices next week could increase far beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz.
While the Fed's decision will be the focus of the gold market next week, other important economic data could also cause some volatility in gold prices next week, such as manufacturing figures. , housing market and retail sales data.
In addition, after the FED's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their monetary policy decisions.
📌Technically, in the short term for the H4 technical chart, after a period of cumulative sideways movement, this week the gold price has broken out of the old peak at 2530 and far exceeded this resistance level. In the immediate future, the gold price will correct. Recovering the round resistance level of 2600. However, divergence signals have appeared on almost all time frames from Weekly, Daily, H4... (Divergence does not mean the price will decrease. Divergence in the financial market In general, the forex market in particular reflects that buyers are no longer interested in high prices. However, there has been no profit-taking action, so the price divergence gives us a warning not to participate buy more, although the price may continue to break to new highs)
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.530 – 2.561USD
Resistance: 2.613 – 2.582USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2605
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2523 - 2525⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2519
Note
Gold price this morning reached 2,579 USD/ounce, down 1.5 USD compared to the previous session but still anchored in the record high price range. Previously, there was a time when the gold price reached 2,586 USD, setting an all-time recordNote
Note
Gold has reached a new peak when it exceeded 2,588 USD/ounce.
Gold prices continue to rise and there is no end in sight - especially when central banks are moving to cut interest rates.
Note
Gold prices retraced most of the session's upward momentum after hitting a historic peak
Gold prices are currently trading around $2,580 on Monday, after hitting an all-time high of $2,589 during the session. Gold prices have stabilized after strong gains on Thursday and Friday but the overall trend remains bullish.
Note
Gold could confirm a breakout and unless anything big happens in other markets, this would be a bullish sign. So far, nothing has happened in the precious metals sector, while DXY is down. This is a bearish factor, but before concluding, let's learn more.Note
(Focus) Median CPI: 2.3% y/y (Forecast: 2.2%. Previous: 2.4%)
(Focus) CPI trimmed: 2.4% y/y (Forecast: 2.5%. Previous: 2.7%)
Note
Gold prices slid off record levels during Tuesday's trading session after the US released a better-than-expected retail sales report - a data point that prompted the market to reduce bets on the possibility of the Fed opting for a big interest rate cut. In addition, investors also became more cautious and took partial profits before the Fed announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday.Note
Regarding the gold market, although there may be a significant adjustment after the Fed meeting, gold prices are still expected to receive support from two main sources: activities from gold ETF investment funds. in Western countries and demand from the Indian market, which may increase the most in many years.Note
The Fed is expected to make a policy decision tonight. The central bank is expected to lower interest rates by at least 25bps, but traders are mixed on the extent of the Fed's cut. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders predict a 65% chance of a 50bps Fed cut and a 35% chance of a 25bps cut.Note
Gold increased slightly at the beginning of the session after reversing a sharp decline yesterday. Gold benefited from the sharp decline in USD and government bond yields after the Fed policy decision, with a surge of more than 30 USD to a new historic peak at 2,600.14 USD. However, the recovery in USD and yields during and after Mr. Powell's press conference pushed gold to reverse and fall to around 2,550 USD. At the end of yesterday's session, gold adjusted to 2,556 USD, recording a decline of more than 10 USD.
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