Short

Updated

Gold is double topping!

Gold is double topping, will fall into the summer, before taking off. If we over-extend lower to the $2,000 level, then it'll be in fall that gold takes off.
Taiwan war cancels this plan. A birdflu pandemic doesn't.

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Upward wedge, retest - about to drop...

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goldpriceforecast.com/gold-price-analysis/gold-vs-silver-very-important-medium-term-signal

Great synopsis on the coming two weeks for pm's (it's not good)

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Nividia correlated with gold shows that this market is a rigged meme market, but an 80%+ correlation?
ibb.co/2Wc95wq

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I like to use RSI 21 to get tops. I see a retracement until getting nuked into orbit following the FED emergency cutting rates due to some exogenous event.

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Bearish MACD crossover has happened 3x since 2011 and has cratered everytime since!

x.com/InvestingAngles/status/1798203165361442927

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x.com/AlessioUrban/status/1799002235973882115

China officially pauses gold buying - gold dumping...

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school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_continuation

Descending triangle on 1 minute chart shows more low coming in today...

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Gold needs to push down and negate the bullish flag, that can only be done by punching down through it in a violent manner. Consider China is curtailing gold purchases (official statement) so they don't overpay for it - and they have a banking holiday on Monday - I'd like to see a 5%+ loss today for gold to break below the flag.

Let's see what happens!

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Zoomed out

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x.com/Fxhedgers/status/1799109502886637981

The media is seeding the idea that we've been in a recession. Once this is FULLY accepted by the FED they'll cut rates pushing gold back up to $3,500. The FED is a reactive body by design, using lagging indicators. So next week will be hawkish so that the dollar kneejerks up, the markets down - and that'll give them the excuse to cut rates that the markets are looking for.
Unfortunately this will blow inflation up EVEN MORE than before, silver will hit $50 and the FED will have to rehike rates again next year which will vault the dollar up to 140-160 blowing up all other currencies in the process.
BOJ and PBOC will devalue their currency, either before or afterwards, but will happen during that time.
This will then blow up the dollar last leading to either:
A. Digital ID and CBDC's if Jeo Boden wins the election
B. Gold Standard 2.0 if Trump wins the election

Either way we're heading for a global depression. If option B happens, gold will go back down to $1,350, maybe lower, as deflation takes hold. Bitcoin will go down to $4,400 at the end of the decade, before going up exponentially forever from there. The Indian Rupee will perhaps be the biggest currency winner by then but it'll be digital by then so it won't matter really. Bitcoin will go up to 400k a coin (against the old dollar).

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It wants to....

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BINGO!

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x.com/InvestingAngles/status/1799154125566861592

That's not good!

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That's a ton of selling looking at those wicks - let alone have 3 in a row. Aside from exogenous event - this puppy, along with the markets will tank next week...

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Pierced! Next week is gonna be a doozy!!

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x.com/CyclesFan/status/1799171493810868734

" - In the last 3 years every time it closed below the 10 week MA in Q2 it dropped into late September or early October. Since there's an FOMC next week a bullish reversal can't be ruled out yet, but if it breaks below 32.20 it will probably be lights out until the end of Q3."

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looks like we have our retracement before heading lower next week...

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x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1799174109718315176
Fireworks await!

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Tagged the 50 to retrace, fear setting in but TTM squeeze not executed but building. I bet this levels off for this week forming a descending triangle, and then next week drops like a rock ..

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Ascending triangle shows short move up, will it bounce on the other side of the flag again or be pushed back down?

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I'm on the side that the FED will be more hawkish because stocks are not melting down to warrant rate cuts - which illustrates the lagging indicators and reactive nature of the FED.

If this is the case, this will spark turmoil in the markets and will push rate cuts to September AFTER the market melts down (Precious metals and miners, , , , $EURSD). This will kneejerk the markets even lower to reset values before blasting off (like Covid) in fall - right before the election. The media will fawn over Biden (if he doesn't bow out to Newsom or Michelle before then) and talk about market ATH's due to the FED cutting rates and juicing the markets (one last time).

If Powell and the FED are dovish, then inflation will reignite even harder going into the election. If the FED is dovish, then all bets are off and I'm fully into precious metals and miners. Hedging along the way for Black Swans (check out my fractal chart that shows another market capitulation (maybe due to birdflu or Taiwan).

After the election, reality will set in, and the markets will take a huge dive after inflation reignites and the FED is forced to raise rates (for the last time). This will cause a kneejerk reaction in the markets and destroy EVERTHING as the dollar ascends to 140-160+.

If Biden is elected, the US and the rest of the world gets CBDC's after great chaos (war, Pandemic2 etc.). If Trump gets in we're transitioning to a gold standard which will bring about a temporary deflationary collapse while robot AI is rolled out. Europe MAY get to transition to the same if Trump gets in, if Biden gets in, Europe is LOST to hordes of immigration and the WEF's Great Reset will happen the way they want it to.

Either way you'd be wise to stock up on food, ammo and precious metals and cash (if Trump gets in - if Biden wins it'll be banned).

Also, bitcoin will descend like Harry Dent talks about, so will gold. Gold will go back down to $800 an ounce, bitcoin $4,000 before the next generation of technology takes gold to $20,000 and bitcoin to $400,000+.

Then it'll all be tested when the pole shift happens in 2046...

Enough stories for today!

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Retest and blast off? I'd take half off before the FED talks tomorrow and play with the house money if it does:

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Are miners smelling a sell-off? , AND are all down...

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Breakdown from the triangle - testing support again. If it dips heavy before FOMC, then I assume it's Big Money taking advantage of a beartrap before catapulting until end of year.
If it dips here goes under the flag support line, THEN retraces, I assume the FED will be hawkish.
Just conjecture for FED moves...

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All rests with the FED now, the two ways the will go - and gold will respond in kind...

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Forward indicator, Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is showing a turn here,
ibb.co/YbM5YWS

Mentioned by Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA :
goldpriceforecast.com/gold-price-analysis/mining-stocks-chinese-stocks-and-the-grim-outlook

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Gold's two pathways - depends on the FED...

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Enhance... Enhance... Enhance...

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This can't be good for gold if the dollar bounces here after retracing the trendline. If the FED holds tight with one rate cut this year that'll be hawkish and the dollar will soar and gold will plummet. If the FED hints at a cut in July that will be dovish and gold will soar and dollar will break support. Hinting at a cut in September is still dovish depending on how the other members vote in the dot plot...

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Breaking
FOMC. No rate cut.
Cuts pushed back.
Expecting an increase in the PCE core rate.
Wow. Very hawkish statement
Fed expects only 1 rate cut in 2024 plus they warned of elevated rates in 2025.
Rug pull
x.com/StealthQE4

"Four Fed officials see no rate cuts this year, up from two officials in the March projections
Seven see one cut, while eight see two cuts.
This means a narrow majority sees no more than one cut this year as a base-case."
FED BOI Nick Timaraos
x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1800952380336300504

TRANSLATION: DOLLAR UP, METALS, MINERS, MARKETS AND BONDS DOWN.

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Gold is about to take a big ol dump for awhile...

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Wait till everyone here's that Russia is selling gold for dollars since they're having a banking crisis due to sanctions...

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Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.

Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).

I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.

I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.

I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!

Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.

If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver which also went up 400% in 6 months and 800% in 1 year back in 2020. I will be loading calls on this one as well, hopefully getting in at $1.

EmptyEternity

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