Let’s rip through XAU/USD like a proper chart-slaying beast. 3 clear timeframes: Monthly, 5-Day, and Intraday (Daily). Let’s get tactical and dissect the hell out of this. XAUMO’s full breakdown coming in hot:
⸻
1. Price Action Pattern Analysis:
• Monthly: Bullish dominance with a strong breakout above 3,000 psychological level. Clean rally from around 2,840, showing bullish marubozu-style candles. But recent candles show indecision — possible exhaustion.
• 5-Day: Bearish pullback post new high. Candlesticks show repeated rejection near 3,040 zone. Multiple small-bodied candles (spinning tops + doji) = buyer-seller deadlock.
• Daily: Intraday = triangle/pendulum chop. Lower highs and higher lows forming micro-consolidation — expect volatility breakout soon.
⸻
2. Range-Bound Analysis:
• Sideways range seen between 3,012–3,032 for past sessions. Market’s stuck in a tight 20-point zone.
• This is accumulation or distribution, prepping for next violent move.
⸻
3. Technical Indicators (based on price structure):
• Momentum cooling.
• No clear divergence on chart pattern, but price struggling to hold higher highs = early signs of momentum loss.
• This is a textbook reversal potential setup.
⸻
4. Trend Analysis:
• Monthly: Strong uptrend.
• 5-Day & Daily: Trend is flattening. Micro downtrend pressure starting to form with lower highs.
⸻
5. Volume Analysis:
• Volume flat across all charts (~302K).
• No volume surge to support breakout = price action lacks conviction.
• Could signal bull exhaustion or fake breakout potential.
⸻
6. Support & Resistance:
• Support: 3,012 (multiple rejections).
• Resistance: 3,032, then major at 3,040.
• If breaks 3,012 = big trouble for bulls.
• If pops 3,032 = bulls might re-ignite toward 3,060.
⸻
7. Momentum Analysis:
• Losing steam. Intraday candles showing weak follow-through after spikes.
• Monthly still solidly bullish, but bearish divergence creeping in shorter timeframes.
⸻
8. Wave Analysis:
• Monthly chart shows a Wave 3 peak, entering Wave 4 (corrective).
• 5-Day = Wave B chop in ABC corrective.
• Daily = building energy for Wave C. Watch for breakout confirmation.
⸻
9. Harmonic Analysis:
• No complete harmonic pattern yet.
• Potential for Bearish Gartley if price rallies to 3,040 and rejects hard.
⸻
10. Market Volatility Analysis:
• Tight range = low volatility.
• Expect volatility explosion within next 24 hours.
• Breakout imminent — either direction, but right now bearish bias is heavier.
⸻
Hypothetical Trade Setup (Optimized for Day Trade):
Order Type: Sell Stop
Entry: 3,011.50 USD
Take Profit: 2,988.00 USD
Stop Loss: 3,027.50 USD
Confidence Level: 82%
⸻
Justification:
• Bearish momentum building.
• Triple test of support without breakout = support weakening.
• If 3,012 breaks, sharp sell-off likely, targeting recent demand zones.
• This setup keeps tight stop just above range and lets profit run if it dumps.
⸻
Ride smart, ride savage. Don’t be the sheep when you can be the lion.
⸻
1. Price Action Pattern Analysis:
• Monthly: Bullish dominance with a strong breakout above 3,000 psychological level. Clean rally from around 2,840, showing bullish marubozu-style candles. But recent candles show indecision — possible exhaustion.
• 5-Day: Bearish pullback post new high. Candlesticks show repeated rejection near 3,040 zone. Multiple small-bodied candles (spinning tops + doji) = buyer-seller deadlock.
• Daily: Intraday = triangle/pendulum chop. Lower highs and higher lows forming micro-consolidation — expect volatility breakout soon.
⸻
2. Range-Bound Analysis:
• Sideways range seen between 3,012–3,032 for past sessions. Market’s stuck in a tight 20-point zone.
• This is accumulation or distribution, prepping for next violent move.
⸻
3. Technical Indicators (based on price structure):
• Momentum cooling.
• No clear divergence on chart pattern, but price struggling to hold higher highs = early signs of momentum loss.
• This is a textbook reversal potential setup.
⸻
4. Trend Analysis:
• Monthly: Strong uptrend.
• 5-Day & Daily: Trend is flattening. Micro downtrend pressure starting to form with lower highs.
⸻
5. Volume Analysis:
• Volume flat across all charts (~302K).
• No volume surge to support breakout = price action lacks conviction.
• Could signal bull exhaustion or fake breakout potential.
⸻
6. Support & Resistance:
• Support: 3,012 (multiple rejections).
• Resistance: 3,032, then major at 3,040.
• If breaks 3,012 = big trouble for bulls.
• If pops 3,032 = bulls might re-ignite toward 3,060.
⸻
7. Momentum Analysis:
• Losing steam. Intraday candles showing weak follow-through after spikes.
• Monthly still solidly bullish, but bearish divergence creeping in shorter timeframes.
⸻
8. Wave Analysis:
• Monthly chart shows a Wave 3 peak, entering Wave 4 (corrective).
• 5-Day = Wave B chop in ABC corrective.
• Daily = building energy for Wave C. Watch for breakout confirmation.
⸻
9. Harmonic Analysis:
• No complete harmonic pattern yet.
• Potential for Bearish Gartley if price rallies to 3,040 and rejects hard.
⸻
10. Market Volatility Analysis:
• Tight range = low volatility.
• Expect volatility explosion within next 24 hours.
• Breakout imminent — either direction, but right now bearish bias is heavier.
⸻
Hypothetical Trade Setup (Optimized for Day Trade):
Order Type: Sell Stop
Entry: 3,011.50 USD
Take Profit: 2,988.00 USD
Stop Loss: 3,027.50 USD
Confidence Level: 82%
⸻
Justification:
• Bearish momentum building.
• Triple test of support without breakout = support weakening.
• If 3,012 breaks, sharp sell-off likely, targeting recent demand zones.
• This setup keeps tight stop just above range and lets profit run if it dumps.
⸻
Ride smart, ride savage. Don’t be the sheep when you can be the lion.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.