Back from a short break with a potential trade idea!
Trade Setup:
Instrument: XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. U.S. Dollar)
Analysis:
Trend Direction: The 1D chart shows that the price is nearing a significant support level, and the 1H chart reflects a recent downward movement, which could suggest a short-term pullback within a longer-term upward trend. The trade will focus on a potential buy entry at a strong support level that coincides with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Fractals and Levels:
Support Level: $2,490 (a strong support level on the 1D chart and close to a significant Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance Level: $2,510 - $2,515 (a potential area of resistance on the 1H chart and also near the recent fractal high).
Fibonacci Levels: The area around $2,490 could also align with a 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, adding confluence to this support.
Trade Idea:
Entry Price: $2,492 (this level is close to the key support level at $2,490, providing a low-risk entry. It’s also a confluence point with Fibonacci retracement levels).
Stop Loss: $2,485 (just below the support level and slightly beneath the potential noise, keeping the risk minimal).
Take Profit: $2,515 (this aligns with a resistance level where liquidity might be high, and a retracement could be expected).
Reward-Risk Ratio:
Risk: $2,492 (Entry) - $2,485 (Stop Loss) = $7
Reward: $2,515 (Take Profit) - $2,492 (Entry) = $23
Ratio: $23 / $7 = 3.29
Trailing Stop Loss Adjustment:
First Adjustment: Once the price reaches $2,500, move the stop loss to break even at $2,492 to eliminate risk.
Second Adjustment: If the price reaches $2,505, move the stop loss to $2,495 to lock in some profits.
Final Adjustment: When the price reaches $2,510, adjust the stop loss to $2,500 to secure more profits.
Execution:
Order Type: Place a limit buy order at $2,492.
Target Price: $2,515.
Stop Loss: $2,485.
Trade Probability:
This trade is designed to align with the support level and the potential for a bounce back within the context of the overall trend.