Will gold break out of the channel today?
Updated
🎈The US November ADP employment report (commonly known as "small non-agricultural") will be released on this trading day. The US October factory orders monthly rate and the US November ISM non-manufacturing PMI data will also be released on this trading day. Investors need to pay close attention to them. In addition, continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials. Pay attention to the no-confidence vote of the French Prime Minister.
🎈Gold trend analysis
From the recent rise in gold, the rise is not smooth sailing. Although it can still set a new high in the end, the bulls cannot effectively maintain the rise. Instead, they need to rely on the pullback to accumulate momentum before they can continue to rise. I think this is enough to prove two points
1. First, as the highs continue to be refreshed, the pressure from above becomes stronger. If the bulls do not have enough momentum, it is difficult to form an effective breakthrough;
2. Secondly, the market is full of concerns about the unknown non-agricultural data, and the geopolitical crisis gradually dissipates, and the market's safe-haven demand for gold has relatively weakened. Although these two factors cannot suppress the strong arrogance of the bulls, they still limit the room for the bulls to rise to a certain extent.
🎈From the market perspective:
On Monday, the price bottomed out and rebounded to 2652, and on Tuesday, it broke the high and refreshed to around 2655. Although new highs continued to be reached, the actual increase was not large. On the daily line, yesterday, a cross Yang was closed, and the closing price was around 2643. The downward momentum of the cycle indicator slowed down with the stabilization of the support of 2633, and there was room for rebound on the daily line. In terms of 4 hours, the gold price was under pressure at the high point of 2655 overnight, and the lowest point reached 2635. The real price did not break the short-term moving average support, and the moving averages of other cycles maintained a short position arrangement. The short-term cycle indicators also started to explore downward, so there is still a risk of a decline in the 4-hour aspect.
🎈All in all, when the new high is refreshed, it will also be the beginning of the layout of short orders.
Operational ideas: It is recommended to focus on high-altitude and low-long as a supplement for intraday operations. For the lower support, pay attention to the 2633 area, that is, the short-term 10-day moving average of the daily line. You can try to participate in long orders. If it is strongly broken by the shorts, focus on the break of the lower track of the 4-hour Bollinger band at 2620. As for the upper resistance, first focus on the 2666 area to participate with short orders, and focus on the 2675-2680 area to start short order layout.
Trade active
The current gold market is in a volatile pattern. Although the overall market has not changed much, the rhythm of long and short conversion is fast.
The specific analysis is as follows:
The continuation of the market after 2720: It is mentioned that the gold price has fluctuated greatly around 2720, and the current market is continuing this downward trend.
The trend line of the daily line: The current price is competing for long and short positions around the trend line of the daily line, indicating that the gold price is in a state of consolidation in this area and has not yet determined the direction, so it may continue to fluctuate greatly in the short term.
The key position of 2652: 2652 is regarded as a key support level. If the gold price does not break through this position, you can continue to adopt a high-altitude strategy, that is, short when the gold price rebounds. And emphasize to avoid too many distractions that interfere with your own judgment and keep the operation ideas clear.
Follow the trend of the big cycle: I suggest that you should follow the trend of the big cycle when operating, and the rebound of the small cycle can be regarded as a short-selling opportunity. That is, short-selling in the process of oscillating upward, especially at high levels.
The experience of four consecutive wins: It is mentioned that the short orders at high gold prices have been profitable four times in a row, which means that the current strategy may be more effective. Therefore, it is recommended to continue to implement this strategy and keep the idea of shorting, especially when it rebounds to a high level.
In summary, in the current volatile market of the gold market, the 2652 area is a key support level. If this support is not broken, the operation strategy should be to continue to short during the rebound.
Trade closed: target reached
Yesterday, gold's technical outlook first declined and then rose. Prices in Asia and Europe were under pressure and quickly fell back to the 2651 mark. In the US market, prices fell further and fell through the 2640 mark, reaching around 2632. They stabilized and recovered, ushering in a deep V rebound.
In the end, the price of gold quickly bottomed out and rebounded under the bullish influence of ADP data, returning to the 2650 mark and continuing to fluctuate strongly. It fell back to close near the 2650 mark and closed with a small positive. The overall gold price continued to fluctuate back and forth with support in the 2630-2655 area.
Yesterday, according to the previous trading plan, we placed short positions from 2647 to light positions, added positions to 2652 and 2655, and went short again, all of which were profit-making.
Judging from the current 4-hour trend of gold, the short-term support below today is still focused around 2635-40, and the pressure above is around 2653-60. During the day, we will continue to rely on this range to maintain the high-altitude, low-multiple cycle and participate in the main tone unchanged. In the middle position, we should watch more and move less. Be cautious when pursuing orders and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy:
1. Short the gold line at 2653-60, stop loss at 2665, target at 2635-2640, break the position and look at 2616-2620;
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