MQP INFINITE REGRESSION #004-9 DELAY ENTRY TO 8/2-8/6b
2 MORE BOXES TO GO, BUT FUNDAMENTALS DEMAND THAT WE BE CAUTIOUS.
Notes:
1. First, gold is the our trade, whether or not silver trend changes for the better.
2. That is because it takes too much work on this end to re-verify all circumstances that could happen.
3 . For gold, I have little doubt this work out.
4. The problem is WE DIDN'T GET A LOW ENOUGH LOW TODAY (FRIDAY 7/23).
5. Like I said in #004-8, I want the low to precede FOMC on 7/28 so...
6. ... we could have a spike on the 7/28.
7. I still do not doubt this scenario, but I do doubt that THE LOW is 7/23-7/26.
8. If you are not using leverage, 7/23-7/26 is a strong entry.
9. Our option plans have duration cost, even if I am wrong that 8/2-8/6 bring A HIGHER LOW, I can live with that.
10. Because the options are so short (expire in 8/27), the higher low won't necessarily make entry cost that much more 10-15%
11. On the other hand if the math is correct, this would improve total returns 20-30%.
12. In the chart,
blue vertical is FOMC MEETING 2PM ET
black vertical is NON-FARM PAYROLLS 7:30 AM ET
yellow vertical is NEW MOON 1:30 PM
red vertical is CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 8:30 AM ET (MAYBE 1 HOUR OFF)
13. Again, if we get an 1825-ish high morning of FOMC (WED 7/28), the first reaction will be RUG PULL that afternoon.
14. Since I can't rule this out, and all lows have been seriously bought the last week, it is another reason why we should wait.
15. As it stands, entry is 8/3-8/5, with an exception for 8/6 if I sense NFP shenanigans.
Notes:
1. First, gold is the our trade, whether or not silver trend changes for the better.
2. That is because it takes too much work on this end to re-verify all circumstances that could happen.
3 . For gold, I have little doubt this work out.
4. The problem is WE DIDN'T GET A LOW ENOUGH LOW TODAY (FRIDAY 7/23).
5. Like I said in #004-8, I want the low to precede FOMC on 7/28 so...
6. ... we could have a spike on the 7/28.
7. I still do not doubt this scenario, but I do doubt that THE LOW is 7/23-7/26.
8. If you are not using leverage, 7/23-7/26 is a strong entry.
9. Our option plans have duration cost, even if I am wrong that 8/2-8/6 bring A HIGHER LOW, I can live with that.
10. Because the options are so short (expire in 8/27), the higher low won't necessarily make entry cost that much more 10-15%
11. On the other hand if the math is correct, this would improve total returns 20-30%.
12. In the chart,
blue vertical is FOMC MEETING 2PM ET
black vertical is NON-FARM PAYROLLS 7:30 AM ET
yellow vertical is NEW MOON 1:30 PM
red vertical is CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 8:30 AM ET (MAYBE 1 HOUR OFF)
13. Again, if we get an 1825-ish high morning of FOMC (WED 7/28), the first reaction will be RUG PULL that afternoon.
14. Since I can't rule this out, and all lows have been seriously bought the last week, it is another reason why we should wait.
15. As it stands, entry is 8/3-8/5, with an exception for 8/6 if I sense NFP shenanigans.
Note
*** The orange box prior to 7/28 is an exception that I DON'T SEE HAPPENING. In the case that it DOES HAPPEN, WE WILL TAKE THE 7/26-27 ENTRY. I just have very little reason to think that it will. ***Note
*** If you didn't know, new moon has a history of being inflection point for gold prices. I never believed it until I saw the data. It is too creepy for me to not pay attention. ***
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.