5500 DRAFT 7-7, FALSE QUAD TOP AT 2460 for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

5500 DRAFT 7-7, FALSE QUAD TOP AT 2460

Introduction - Earlier today in 7-6, gold did not take the first route to 2465. This means several things that I will detail later. First of all though, it means there will be a false quad top at 2460. The fifth top should arrive by end of this week with prices aiming for 2500s.

Details - Sunday open's 27-pt rug pull is ultimately the factor that altered short term trends enough to cap today's ceiling at 2360. Worth of note here is that price have very few routes left to 2460 and they are all more or less similar to chart at top. Normally - having moved from 1987 without a correction over 67 points - it would be time to correct more. Well, maybe and maybe not this time, because Binary Forecasting service's trend engines suggests the only outcome with odds worth entertaining right now is a false quad top at 2460. Meaning that there will be four tops, followed by a fifth move to break up ultimately into 2510-2520. What is stunning here is is 2460 perfectly fit the math for gold's move since 1845, meaning that once at 25xx, gold intends to take out 26xx and 27xx. What's even MORE STRANGE is that this should all fit by Tuesday April 16th. That is the same as saying we are going to 2740 by next Tuesday.

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For regular readers - Last note in 7-6 I said you should stay long bc 2460 is coming this week. From the latest numbers, it's coming 5 times.

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To next Tuesday, get this arc on chart and lock the price-bar ratio
a) otherwise it doesn't stay put
b) basically this arc is the story
c) I can use any number of ways to explain it
d) but simply be saying with different words
e) bears break that, and it's over (even sideways)
f) conversely, if they get close and don't break just a little bit
g) the bull reaction is usually vertical
h) we are getting near the end of curve where it goes vertical
i) so strength or weakness of price action in this matter a lot
j) in chart at top, bulls are late bc bears were a bit stronger
k) but bulls still have different ways to get the same result

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a) for 2 charts above, there are number of ways this ends
b) bulls DO NOT HAVE TO BE ON TIME TO KEEP GOING...
c) for example they cross but still go up SLOWER
d) but IF THEY ARE ON TIME, that is an indication of DEVELOPING BLOW OFF TOP
e) the 2740 I talked about
f) so the next 2 days are particularly interesting
g) to see if:
1) this is over at 2350 (unlikely)
2) this is gonna be over at 2460
3) this is a blow off in development

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4) at this hour, odds favor bulls break resistance on time

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a) I'm not going to argue if they read my notes
b) if you follow anything, you would understand that my macro view is correct
c) AND SO ARE MY NOTES that I write to help people
d) BUT I DON'T CARE ABOUT ANY OF THAT
e) for chart above, for like 4 weeks
f) I have titled posts with CRAZY NUMBERS
g) and we barely scratched 2350
h) I won't even get into calling the WHOLE WAY SINCE 1810
i) but let explain one time before everyone what I've been trying to do in the last month
j) my regression research had called for 2840 BY APRIL (THIS MONTH) for sometime
k) I even made a post about it
l) I wrote it off (forget about it, it's never going to happen)
m) the EVIDENCE RIGHT NOW (regression/trend) is saying 2740 next week
n) it makes all the stuff I called from 2300-2500 sound lame
o) think about it this way -- I have been trying to find A MIDDLE GROUND
p) something that would make it all make sense
r) doesn't look like there's going to be middle ground this time
s) there's a reason I said 2460 5 times (you CAN'T BEGIN TO UNDERSTAND)
t) but forget it, let's just see what happens from here to next week

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u) but I just brought up the arc to illustrate to people don't get it...
v) PRICE IS HOLDING THE ARC
w) this arc implies a blow off to 2740 next week
x) so the middle ground or scenario that bridge the 2335 to 2740?
y) IS A QUAD TOP AT 2460
z) I'v tried to make this point before but you wont understand it
1) the route I offered will end up being the reasonable route
2) compared to what will actually happen
3) just wait a few more days
4) I am sharing "dumb down data" bc what it says is kind of nuts
5) but the data isn't wrong yet
6) it's got 2 more weeks
7) and price is still holding a parabolic curve
8) so if plays next week ...
9) all the forecasting I've done since 2150 ....
10) WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE REASONABLE vs a blow off top at 2740-2840

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11) just look that arc again
12) gold just beat the clock and broke another trend line just now
13) if you can't see that aim is 27xx, you don't know what you think you know

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14. all that needs to happen for it sound normal
15. is for gold to cross that line
16. if it crosses here to next Tuesday, then I AM WRONG, sorry you wasted your time
17. but it's a free post, just ignore it, its not that hard
18. but what I do is break down EVERY SINGLE TREND UNDERNEATH
19. and they are all screaming together NO BREAK!

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a) in chart above this is the move from October
b) you had to be here because I nailed the move coming in
c) but adjusted on the fly as it took lows
d) what we have right now is 8x the scale bar wise but more vol
e) so it is like comparing 3h bar to 1 day bar
f) and where that arrow I have it at
g) IS THE QUAD TOP AT 2460 in layman terms
h) and where that top part is 90 pts
i) this time it is 280-400

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j) basically like this:

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k) I have already posted ALL of the other less crazy outcomes
l) THERE ARE NO MORE that I have
m) this is the last one that says quad top 2460 and blow off to 27xx or 28xx
n) that's all the cards I have on the table

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o) I'm the person trying to be reasonable, does that make sense
p) now we are down to only possible outcome left

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q) UNLESS PRICE CROSS THAT ARC
r) and usually when it's this late meaning 6 more bars, or 6 more days
s) it will follow through

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t) OR .... ALL MY WORK IS COMPLETE TRASH
u) that's ok, I'm not a genius

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v) but look:

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1) in chart above, it just broke that line and now intent on moving up ahead of the arc
2) this is not like a regular wide arc with a few spots that hit...
3) this is a "true arc" because of how many points on that line have hit
4) I'll spare you the technical regression wave stuff
5) AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT'S SIMPLE
6) if it breaks early ... fine
7) if it completes, 2740-2840 by end of next Tuesday
8) why?
9) because that's the area "ahead of the arc"

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10) just wait few more days
11) for 2460, it should be by tomorrow night
12) why?
13 ) because of the way a "base forms before the vertical spike"
14) meaning NO BASE = NO SPIKE
15) not that it MUST HAVE ONE, but because the trend break down says price must keep moving

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16) so therefore a base is highly favor to form ahea of the vertical spike
17) and in our scenario the obvious target is 2460 to make the rally from 2145 perfect

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18) this the one I never wanted to do
19) bc it sounds so stupid to be real
20) at this time, no other option

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3:27 2460 is coming tomorrow
a) before midnight
b) this carries weight for 2 very strong reasons that really mean the same thing
c) it will this high 3 days ahead of the the arc
d) WHILE trend waves are "twisting" up
e) meaning crazy support than won't accept more than 50 points of retrace
f) after 2460 we are expected to check down twice
g at the same time, checking UP 3 times
h) hence quad top
i) so after Tuesday, we can skip and wait for Thursday morning's PPI

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3:42 PM, small bars with the other one:

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a) in chart above the one that fakes out, usually happen with long rallies in general
b) if it happens here, it would be a neutral signal, not bull OR bear
c) the only action before Thursday is long to 2460

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4:11 PM ET.
1) one step at a time
2) let's see the move to 2460 by end of Tuesday
3) then sideways with a 55 pt check down
4) then staircase into Thursday OVER THE ARC

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5) meanwhile for right now, I don't think it moves big until after London opens
6) which counter my intuition but is what it is

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9:13 PM ET, So here's next move:

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a) I sound confident that it's moving to 2460
b) that's just inferred, I really see 2445-2450 BUT the higher end could hit 2480
c) which is what I really want to see before it checks the arc again at 2380
d) I really want to see an 100 pt check down
e) or at least 80
f) because of the scale of the next move, checking any less than 70 ...
g) that's makes me worry for back stabbing moves later
h) but the waves pushing tonight HAVE ENOUGH GAS to get to 2475-2480
i) it would take until noon NY or maybe later to get that high
j) the check down is classic rug pull at curve down that's super fast so you can get on with it
k) in theory, that should be Sydney and Tokyo tomorrow

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l) be aware that if the arc breaks, it' over for this rally
m) again, exception I noted in one of the charts near top

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8:40 AM ET LONDON SUCKS....
a) with a setup for 2400 in that session, only 2365
b) now at NY checkdown at 46.xx as I type
c) price has broken the most recent trend line
d) and is TESTING the arc
e) the reaction here is crucial with bulls have a a window of may 30 minutes for a stick-save
f) stick-save near all time high is stick-sae

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g) if bulls take this route they can make 2400 in a few hours

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h) 8:55 AM, the purpose of this window is to momentum for higher targets
i) if they do not get over 56 and hold by 20 min (50.xx right now)
j) then that window closes and it's 2400 by NY close

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k) I meant "hold momentum"

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l) no, it's not easy to say that "stick-save" saves it
m) it's about when, you can't do that all the time
n) but you can do it here and window is still open right now 9:08 and flashing 51.xx
0) but bulls have to move within a specific time to "keep it open"

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p) and I meant stick-save as viewed from 4-hour bar

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9:37 AM just tagged 2360.xx, so probably taking stick-save route
a) this is defined as 2400 around 12 PM ET
b) and they better not be late (bc it matters here)

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1) for chart above, and why do I say that?
2) because it's MY JOB, to research trend and volatility limits for prices
3) I've done it day and night for 8 years now
4) and for the last 3-4 year, EXCLUSIVELY for gold prices
5) and look, it's 2358.xx AS I TYPE
6) if BEARS FORCE A 2355 CLOSE, IT'S OVER, AND LITERALLY SIMPLE AF!
7) but if bulls close NY 2400 and higher...
8) you need to understand momentum vs volatility, ok?
9) that 2460 target, for all intents and purposes, can hit a month later
10) and that would fulfill Fibonacci target
11) but if it HOLDS THIS ARC ... TO THURSDAY'S PPI
12) it will have 3 bars left on 1-day chart, meaning Thursday, Friday, and Monday
13) to "run with the arc" to 2790 average
14) and that's MY CALL and my reason is simple
15) use 1-day bars for 100 bars, and you don't have to take it seriously until bar #93
16) by that rule:
a) today is bar #96
b) tomorrow is 97
c) Thurs is 98
d) Friday is 99
e) Monday is 100
f) because the blow off only take 3 bars
17) that's all there is to it
18) I didn't even put 27xx, 28xx in the title of this
19) BECAUSE I NEEDED TO SEE THE SETUP FIRST
20) my call is quad top bc it fits, but it is NOT THE ONLY THING THAT FITS
21) does that make sense?
22) some people run their mouth - honest to God - and hey don't have a clue
23) that other people are doing serious work
24) I'll wrap up when NY ends, and it's 2362.xx as I type

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10:42, hard 15 pt drop oat 46.xx bears want to break the arc
a) it maybe over in an hour
b) or not we will see

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4/9 12:07 PM ET 2342.XX UNDER THE ARC AND WHAT IT MEANS
a) I don't know what happens next
b) but I know this, it's not over yet

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c) with chart above, that's what over means here
d) weaken the trend, and a predictable first move to 2380
e) that's the favored move right now AT THIS HOUR

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a) of all those things bulls can do, only one is worth talking about
b) why?
c) because they all mean the same thing as the bear move to 2320
d) they all mean top at 2460 this week, next week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks
e) who cares really when?

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f) so what are talking about here is when does the turn up happen?
g) so are basically talking about this blue wave:

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h) the hi-light is what happened last time
i) and since the trend composition would similar by CPI..
j) you get that type of a move but not for 2400, but 2380 bc it's weaker
k) so from here on out I am waiting for that blue wave
l) and when it turns is a big effing deal

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examples:

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a) for chart above, NY close here is important...
b) because you gauge what happens AHEAD OF CPI
c) right NOW outcome FAVORS BLUE
d) but even if it's red which means 2380 before CPI and probably get sold
e) red/blue ultimately means the same thing, over at 2460
f) but bulls close above 2350, especially over 2355
g) they can regain the arc position by getting to 2380 BEFORE LONDON OPENS
h) so that's the ONLY INTERESTING ONE, you've got 3.5 hours until aftermarket ends
i) maybe it's over, we will see

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3:08 PM ET the most annoying close you can get here is what it is now at 2347.xx
a) the inconclusive close
b) SO INCONCLUSIVE ... that it has 4 different routes all rather different
c) in 2347 close, this is what I want instead:

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3:13, no bears are pushing for 2335-2330 close
a) and looks like they will get it
b) so that's that..
c) it's pretty hard to go under 2330, they might if they try hard all the way to CPI
d) in which case that's kind of set now
e) after the dust settles stair case to 2460

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3:24 barring a late surprise...
a) that's pretty much it
b) there's one more way this ends differently
c) and that is a quad top at 2350-2360 heading into PPI
d) that's another headache
e) let's just wait until PPI

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f) if bears can't close well, and bulls can't close well the middle ground close is this:

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1) in much older drafts 2nd week of March
2) had talked about the quad top at 2350 (with up to 6 separate attempts)
3) and there were short versions (like this one)
4) and longer versions (that can take two months)
5) what's happening RIGHT now looks like a short version of it
6) I don't know what that means for Thursday and Friday
7) I mean besides a move for 2460 with minimum extensions to 2525
8) so that's where we are at, looking like a quad top at 2350

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4:13, 53.xx
a) the slow response to sell IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
b) bulls have allowed the daily curves to shift too much
c) it's not obvious at all right now, that they can get higher than 59-60
d) and eventually turn into chart above
e) or just another version of a quad top here
f) the setup that allows for a move to 2380 tonight isn't quite there anymore

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5:20 PM, yeah it looks like a much smaller quad top at 2350-2360
a) so then the blow off is about 160 past the high
b) or 2525
c) in this case it would not need Monday
d) just Thurs and Friday

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e) and this truncated version
f) does not need the arc at all
g) it just needs the setup
h) which is a sideways quad top

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and...

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1) the bear route leads to the quad top
2) the bull route can't be ruled out
3) so we need a decision here first and it hasn't been made yet

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Typo IN CHART: ends in 3 days not 2, I guess it could just end Thursday might. But should be 3.

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1. I'm pretty sure it's quad top.
2. So sideways and cpi check down to 2330-35.
3. Then zig zag to Thurs ppi.
4. No action until Thursday

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8:00 still some sets of maps say not yet.

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9:14 PM 2346.XX I'm stumped, 100%.
a) if I figure something out, I'll post
b) this move to 46 is really not supposed to happen here
c) if you are long be very careful
d) especially before Thursday PPI
e) can't tell you to short here, bc it's too early

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f) I had this an hour ago:

g) but now I don't trust it

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h) that line is not supposed to break until London
i) usually that's a very bearish sign
j) but my intermediate trends still say it has to hit 2525
k) while pattern recognition says bull value expires end of Friday
l) can't make it agree, that's too much difference to make it agree
m) so that's all I got

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11:04 PM , I have several drafts now coming out like chart above
a) but the tail end is 2450 Friday
b) like this:

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c) again, I'd rather just wait for PPI Thursday AM
d) if you want take stab at CPI
e) my trend maps says short the bounce
f) but it can't say if that bounce is before or after CPI
g) meanwhile the floor isn't that deep, it's hard seeing things get worse than 2335

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h) so that's my plan, wait for PPI, and to get more clarity
i) but after PPI is a run for 2450
j) and I am not sure the pattern recognition is right about the pattern
k) so I am not sure that we would be topping soon after 2450
l) we might and we might not, bc I HAVE A REALLY DIFFICULT TIME with a top under 2525
m) that's REALLY HARD to make sense

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n) because at 2525 only begins to make sense '
o) so that's what I think I know now
p) going take tomorrow off unless something interesting happens

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q) the last thing I can't see is this:
r) if bears are persistent and push down slowly next 12 hours
s) they CAN get to 2330, but tha situation, you can't short the CPI bounce
t) you would be long the low ahead of CPI

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9:31 2323, SECOND LEG MAKES EVERYTHING WAY MORE BEARISH
a) BE careful
b) can't update right now

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10:51 AM ET 2349.XX TRADINGVIEW WRAP UP
a) if you've followed my posts in the last year
b) moderators have come down on me for several times
c) for "updating too much"
d) because they consider it manipulation of their visibility algorithm
e) meaning they think that I am cheating to get more attention
f) this morning needed like 10 comments
g) but if I post them I get banned
h) let me you something about price action
1) things change all the time
2) so ideas have to change as facts change
3) the ONLY way to be accurate all the time is to update all time
4) their system doesn't work because it penalizes THE VERY THING I CAN DO FOR YOU
5) F that, Im done with them for the last time

i) for my readers, sorry I cant stick around
j) I didn't really want to in the first place
k) I'm not going to beg anybody SO I CAN PAY TO MAKE POSTS....
l) think about how silly that is
m) it's MIND BOGGLING
n) have a good one and this time Im not coming back

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p.s. The trolls they don't ban, but the person putting in real effort they ban. Yeah great system guys.

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p.s.2. No, not getting on other platforms to post.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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