TRUE BINARY FORECASTING #1
Introduction - Whether you are new to this, I can tell you truthfully that the best forecasting I have done ever, was October into November 2023. It wasn't software, or hardware, or algorithm, or skills, or discipline, blah blah blah. It was for one reason only, because I updated "around the clock". I have literally proven that "accuracy" and "updated" means the same thing. You only can be accurate if you are updated. So please understand this principle well.
Details - Let's pick up where we left off last with a chart from DRAFT 7-7 and we will go on from there:
Details - Let's pick up where we left off last with a chart from DRAFT 7-7 and we will go on from there:
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1:25 PM, I started with this one:Note
And ended with this one:Note
a) so for 3 charts above, basically the same ideab) that down for CPI (now done)
c) next move is up and down, stall, and way up after PPI
d) this morning after second leg down, bulls really showed up to stop "a third leg down"
e) this is important because it confirms that SUPPORT IS REAL
f) that said, we still need to see that the regression curves reflect this support
g) so while I get to that, my view that the trade at PPI is the same
h) until then it's just more zig zag
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i) that's all well and good, but the sign we really want j) that says explosive move up after PPI is for the next move up to break resistance
k) like this:
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1:46 PM ET, I don't like the way the day-to-day trends looka) its not obvious to me right now
b) that we ARE NOT heading lower before P'PI
c) meaning first read of situation right now, down trend continuation
d) whatever bulls did this morning is not enough
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2:01 cannot be long until bulls break this line Note
a) the trends forcing this move down are beginning to look very uniformb) this means strength
c) and they daring bulls to stop them from getting to 2305
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2:30 PM ET 2335, it's looking all bearish now.a) I don't think bulls can break that line
b) they have been rejected twice
c) so I see 2305 next
d) very possibly before PPI
e) so that would mean a before PPI
f) and a mini-crash afterwards
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2:41 PM, we are going to go down, but is top in yet, that's the question.a) scenario 1: down to 2305, bounce to whatever before or at PPI, then down even more
b) scenario 2: bulls break that line in chart above, setup a spike for PPI
c) in which case PPI spikes HARD to 2380 or maybe even 2400
d) and then all the way down
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e) don't have any evidence for scenario 2 YETNote
f) the IMPORTANT THING IS THIS, ENOUGH EVIDENCE NOW FOR something like this:Note
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g) so down we go and 31.xx as a I type h) the only question left is, will PPI deliver a new high?
i) in which you wait for the run to stop and you short it
j) and should continue to short until 2150 is what it looks like
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k) and this should bottom before 4/30, with 5/01 being fomcNote
2:58 PM ET, I have evidence for 1 more high tomorrowa) I'm trying to figure out what it should look like but basically:
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b) so a rough draft ok?c) in order to do this, price needs stop going down and break that bold line
d) before PPI release and...
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e) ok that's better....f) as a point of view, this move is different from the move I started with
g) in 2 ways
h) "the setup" is much weaker, and of course the resulting rally
i) which I am going to guess is 2385
j) can't really short until Friday morning I think
k) bc you want to wait for "M" top
l) and after that this will staircase down to 2150 by 04/30
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m) 3:36, to be clear, there should not be another lown) there is just not enough to time bc PPI is 16 hours away
o) should be sideways to make its "setup" now
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3:56 PM ET tradingview.com/x/3caN65yy/'Note
a) so this draft says you CAN short the first top b) basically its just about value
c) and the value looks like 30 pts from 2385
d) that's the best draft I got
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4:10 Damn it, it's not sustainable.a) I really tried to make this work
b) but I did it this way before
c) and it's just not going to work
d) so I am going to review my last thoughts before I leave this joint
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1) so tomorrow is going to give you the high 2385 ish2) the rest of the SHOULD BE LIKE THIS :
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3) if by 6/12 FOMC ... that pattern is true4) THEN YOU GO MASSIVELY LONG 6/12 TO 7/04
5) that has been MY PERSONAL BASE CASE FOR JUNE/JULY
6) only that much is really knowable
7) that's like my 2nd best idea
8) meanwhile if you are long AG, would exit tomorrow's strong rally
9) AND GET BACK IN before 6/12 FOMC
10) that is my singular best idea
11) so that's it for us here
12) damn shame it didn't work out guys
13) but this is really it for me
14) I leave you with one advice for your trading career if you are serious about it
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>> Are you sure? If not, be sure. Otherwise, wait until you are sure.Note
12:58 PM ET, better late than never.., 2349.xxa) so still 2385 until we are done?
b) ok so, because the run is weak...
c) we should expect 2365 first
d) then we will see
e) but I will say this though
f) BEFORE WE BROKE THE ARC...
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g) remember, the pattern we were on h) today is day 98, tomorrow is 99, and Sunday night into Monday is 100
i) I also said, that I "have a real problem" with high under 2525
k) this is based on volatility limits of the price structure on AN ALL TIME BASIS since 1971
l) that point still stands
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m) meaning that.. HAD WE NOT BROKE THAT ARC....n) my ceiling would be 27xx-28xx
o) now that WE HAVE BROKE THE ARC
p) I still do not have a good enough reason to take 2525 off the table ...
q) especially when we are on THE THREE LAST BARS OF A VERY BIG TOP
r) we have missed all those crazy moves (ex 2400 in 12 hours blah blah)
s) so we have eliminated all those moves already
t) we HAVE NOT ELIMINATED 2525 for the last 3 bars (being today, tomorrow, and Sunday night into MOnday)
u) why?
v) those are bars 98, 99, and 100
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w) and while its only 2350.xx as I type, that IS WHERE WE SHOULD BE, IF A BIT SLOWx) so what are we looking for?
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a) for chart aboveb) price's attitude today is opposite yesterday prior to the break of the bold line
c) bulls are DARING bears to stop the mini blow off
d) bulls have now until 2AM ET Monday (or London open)
e) it's NOT OBVIOUS AT ALL that bears can shut it down at 2385
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f) so where are we now?g) we are back to the last chart in DRAFT 7-7:
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h) be aware that we DID NOT GET THE HIGH WE WANTED BEFOR PPIi) that in itself should say, MAYBE NOT 2525, I still can't move off 2460 until they prove it
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j) because previous high was 2365, 100 pt past that is pretty much STANDARD for this positionk) but bulls DO NOT HAVE FOREVER
l) odds favor 98, 99, AND SOME OF BAR 100
m) meaning their strength expire a couple of hours into Monday
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1:27 PM ET A REMINDER ON THE NATURE OF UPDATING1) so since DRAFT 7-7 prior to break of the arc
2) my view on the top has changed almost full circle
3) but the overall "theme" is the same
4) a big high from today to Monday morning
5) and this would be THE high prior to 6/12 FOMC
6) but remember that somethings cannot be foreseen until it's about to happen
7) like the break of the arc
8) and the yesterday's bear line overnight
9) so as we go up, MY base case is still 2460 (and wouldn't be surprised if we hit 2525)
10) but this base case WILL CHANGE IF BULLS DO NOT KEEP UP WITH THEIR ROUTE
11) and while I want to keep doing this I really this continuing
12) so as before when I was doing daily binaries
13) if you see THAT SOMETHING IS OFF, then trade defensively AND ACCORDING TO HOW MUCH ITS OFF BY
14) and your own personal tolerance of that situation
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2:00 PM hold on a second... dang ita) I can't tell if THERE'S ONE MORE CHECK DOWN COMING OR NOT
b) because if it want 's 25xx, then it needs one more check to make it happen
c) argh.... and I don't have any time
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2:10 PM 2360.xx and of course they want to ban the guy trying his hardest to get you useful information1) ok... there's 2 routes up
2) and honestly the only way to say what it's doing
3) is for me to update this as we go
4) and I am really not in situated to do that right now
5) so what I CAN DO, is give you the two routes up to watch for
6) that doesn't mean it will do either of these
7) often it chooses a third path with elements of both
8) the crux of the issue is: WHAT SHOULD BE THE RESPONSE AT 2365?
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2:20 PM ET, FIRST, BASE CASE, THE ROUTE TO 25XXa) why?
b) because gold's all time structure DEMANDS that it moves for 25xx
c) but if wants to do that, IT NEEDS ONE MORE CHECK DOWN, to reset all the trends
d) for that size of a move, so:
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e) I keep bring in this move up, because that's what it looks like ....f) from a number of trend maps
g) so there fore, since base case SHOULD BE A 25XX TOP
h) base case is a check down overnight...
i) my guess is 2370 to 2340 in Asian sesssion
j) but WHAT IF IT DOESN'T DO THIS?
k) then it's hard to see it get much past 2460 and the move will look more like an "arc move" which is ...
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a) again, since the the short to intermediate trends look CLOSER TO AN ARC move...b) can't say that it's not going to do that, until it doesn't
c) to sum it up at this second in time, my base case is 2460 or higher by Sunday night
d) but HOW WE GET THERE is not obvious right now...
e) just keep in mind what I said in DRAFT 7-7
f) today is bar 98, Friday is bar 99, and Sunday night into Monday is the first 1/3 of bar 100
g) that's all I can do for you guys today
h) have a good weekend
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one last thing!! arc move looks like this:Note
a) in chart above, ultimately while we have our scenariosb) it's going to do what it's going to do...
c) so be aware of that
d) I am in such a a jam that I can't help anymore
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3:34 PM ET... IT DOES NOT HAVE TO CHECK AGAIN TO GET TO 2575a) the problem is not the check down that is required
b) the issue seems to be WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE HIGH
c) the check down usually produce a blow off that will be sold instantly after the high
d) whereas the arc, with no check down, gets it the high
e) and goes "sideways to down" before correcting hard
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f) and since this rally must end in the next 36 hours trading the trends in under 36 hours matter a great dealg) and right now, they are saying no checkdown
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3:44 PM ET 2370.XX base case is 2460 before London opensa) why?
b) bc London has a strong history of selling into rallies
c) and just frankly selling in general
d) with the rare exception being 2 days ago, when they rallied for $15 ...
e) with $50 in trend engine, this slowdown ultimately caused the arc to break
f) so that's what we are doing 2460 before London
g) without a doubt, they will knock it down a minimum of $35 or $50
h) they're not afraid of a $100 spike no matter what day it is
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3:54 PM ET, same price, 3 things obvious nowa) no check down coming under 2360 (and this number might still rise)
b) 2450-2460 gets hit before London
c) the high WILL BE FRIDAY NOT SUNDAY NIGHT
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d) it's almost obvious now the high will be 2525+Note
e) 2374.xx as I typeNote
4:08 PM ET and 2374.xx a) no, I was originally correct
b) it will take all of Sunday night
c) and stop before London opens Monday
d) but probably closer to 2500 than 2525
e) HOWEVER.. bc it has taken an arc path
f) AFTER MONDAY CORRECTION, to 24xx whatever
g) we will CONTINUE TO RALLY UP TO 4/29
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h) let me say that againi) we SHOULD CONTINUE TO RALLY THROUGH 4/26, or next 10 trading days
j) so the final target we are looking at for 4/26? that is 2740
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k) no, let's just say 2675,Note
THIS POST HAS ENDED, WE WILL MOVE TO 7-8:Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.