Updated

Gold Daily count and plan

If 1203-1198 doesn't hold, target is 1170. However bear looks a little stretched here tbh because 1296 was still a higher high. The technical retracement I'm expecting up to 1258+ offers best risk reward.

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As of Monday 10/7 close there's a 1195 target so I wouldn't start fading the bears just yet. If gold produces another small bounce before going bear again then different target.

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Finally, last down: 1196/95. There are no calculations left except 1184 if gold breaks down 1193.

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I'm short 1218/19 for decent risk reward (smaller positions) and looking at this.

Trade closed: stop reached

My shorts hit breakeven. This is my updated chart:

I had to go back to my original wave count where wave circle iv on daily was a running flat. This changes alot of calculations, as per chart the target completion was 1206. I erroneously introduced another sub-wave this week instead to be on safer side due to Yellen news. It doesn't matter anyway because it looks like wave A is forming nicely and we can capitalise on buying B wave bottom for C wave rally. It looks like a zig-zag correction, perhaps 1.5-2wks. Then resume longer term selling on daily/weekly chart.

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This is a decent area to start building short positions. Above 1254 and above 1258 are my zones.

Trade active

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I'm short and looking at this if B wave materialises. Won't really know until the waves form but there's a higher likelihood that another upside C wave will form. If it does: will be very quick as compared to A wave.

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I'm ignoring A-B-C. I think it's just going to sell off into wave 3 down from here. My earlier shorts BE. Now selling again.

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I'm TPing shorts below yesterday's 1254 pivot low. Reason is i see a WXY on h1, indicating that wave 2 of C is in play. (FOMC created the C wave). No point risking shorts since its easy to sell again if my wave count gets invalidated. So I'm buying later for 2 waves then selling hard possibly 1288 or 1275. Bulls are getting stretched as it is. I'll put up charts when i can.

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This is my ref chart. Waiting for the C blow-off dip before TPing shorts.

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My WXY didn't work and blew past my red line. I like going long at green line 1264 and above 1262 red line. Seeing as there are only 2 impulses left for this C, it is prudent to spread long positions across down to 1260 in case ending diagonal forms. Destination targets of 1275 and 1288 remains.

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My longs triggered and my wave count is still valid across all my brokers. For some reason Tradingview's XAUUSD IDC quotes show that my count was invalidated:

This is not the first time this has happened so I'll stop using IDC from now on.

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Last rally here. Gold is really vulnerable especially at 1279-83. Or possibly double top 1274.

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Last rally done. This is my wave count and long term short positions:

Good luck all.

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I won't be updating this chart idea anymore.it turned out to be Daily retracement idea lol. Anyway, its just a bunch of 1-2-1-2s within the 1250s and 1260s region until then Wave 3 daily kicks in. Just sell $5/10/15 pullbacks for a couple of months. I'll publish a new idea if I think this wave 3 of C (weekly) formation changes.

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I changed my mind about updating this chart. Truth is I find it tiring publishing new charts. Here's the update. Still short and adding on continuation shorts 1291.90:

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1261.90 (not 1291.90)

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Just be wary of bull and bear traps here. Main trend tends to confuse people before it sets off. This is my expectation because I still can't see bullish side yet unless 1274 breaks.

Remember that Wave B (bear trap) correction need not go that low to activate Wave C (bull trap). The correction on H1/H4 a zig-zag.

OwenMohd

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OwenMohd

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