My perspective of Gold-price the past 48hrs. Where to next week?
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pv2bsBvS/
Take a look please at the first chart. Basically, it breaks down the past 36 to 48 hours on a 15m, especially where buying occurred following the 2536 low, impulsive move up which to me looks like smart-money or institutional money with some retailers tagging along, price is then dragged down by a Top 1 where an M-shaped pattern otherwise known M-top forms & a trigger of the neckline causes selling, initially the usual M-top false break upwards in price, a further move down, a couple more low timeframe rally's (false) and then the bigger shift down in price.
Buyers move in again at Fibonacci sequence numbers (respected) and price moves up forming a Top2 and Top3, price will most times sell-off which it did, down the rabbit hole again, which incidentally is normal price action for these Top-patterns, price tends to move above the Top pattern after Top3 price retraces.
But there is also this same pattern playing out on 1hr and 2hr timeframes, a bigger pattern on price being a higher timeframe, another M-top forms with a neckline at 2560. Price tests this level several times, in fact price broke through slightly on at least 1 occasion. If its assumed that the neckline of this M-top on the 2hr timeframe was taken by price, then any move up would be a false break and that's what happened.
Interesting that price did not smash through 2560 at end of session. That is normally what happens after an M-top is triggered at the neckline, price falls a little more, a false break occurs upwards and will last long enough to suck buyers in and then bam - price moves rapidly back down through neck and much lower prices ensue. Pull up a chart of any big sell-off day and you will usually find an M-Top has caused much of the damage.
Second chart, is where price will find support around 2500, weak volume in the Asia session Monday and price is easily manipulated to fall lower and firstly test the recent low at 2536. This is a high confluence zone this next support level, its between the 50ema and 200ema and some Candle support from the past couple of months. This level is about 10% down from Gold's high price.
Cheers, Chris.
Take a look please at the first chart. Basically, it breaks down the past 36 to 48 hours on a 15m, especially where buying occurred following the 2536 low, impulsive move up which to me looks like smart-money or institutional money with some retailers tagging along, price is then dragged down by a Top 1 where an M-shaped pattern otherwise known M-top forms & a trigger of the neckline causes selling, initially the usual M-top false break upwards in price, a further move down, a couple more low timeframe rally's (false) and then the bigger shift down in price.
Buyers move in again at Fibonacci sequence numbers (respected) and price moves up forming a Top2 and Top3, price will most times sell-off which it did, down the rabbit hole again, which incidentally is normal price action for these Top-patterns, price tends to move above the Top pattern after Top3 price retraces.
But there is also this same pattern playing out on 1hr and 2hr timeframes, a bigger pattern on price being a higher timeframe, another M-top forms with a neckline at 2560. Price tests this level several times, in fact price broke through slightly on at least 1 occasion. If its assumed that the neckline of this M-top on the 2hr timeframe was taken by price, then any move up would be a false break and that's what happened.
Interesting that price did not smash through 2560 at end of session. That is normally what happens after an M-top is triggered at the neckline, price falls a little more, a false break occurs upwards and will last long enough to suck buyers in and then bam - price moves rapidly back down through neck and much lower prices ensue. Pull up a chart of any big sell-off day and you will usually find an M-Top has caused much of the damage.
Second chart, is where price will find support around 2500, weak volume in the Asia session Monday and price is easily manipulated to fall lower and firstly test the recent low at 2536. This is a high confluence zone this next support level, its between the 50ema and 200ema and some Candle support from the past couple of months. This level is about 10% down from Gold's high price.
Cheers, Chris.
Note
Final chart here is 2hr & why price was in such a tug-of-war Friday. Price to retrace to Top 2 as usually would occur or price to dive lower through Mtop neck. Neither seemed to occur.
Trade active
Gold price buy on Daily chart. This is good.
I am accumulating up to price 2600.
BUY THE BREAK ABOVE 2582. STOP LOSS: 2572
Note
GOLD PRICE is running smooth upwards in Asia Session.
I think that there is alignmnent for Longs from here as the key Daily chart is coming into play
Trade closed: target reached
The Volume of buying faded as price neared the Top of the Double Top.
So I went short 2.6 CFD contracts a fair bit. Stop at 2577. They are stop hunting me. But seller are crunching down now
Note
Why I said to buy 2582 after the TOP of system.Note
Probably not a bad idea to join me in the short. Wait for a real flush down. I risked only 0.25% of capital and still scored 2.6lotsNote
They hate being milked in big shorts.Note
The text book says this part of price-action is accumulation and distribution. Nah I got another term for it. The market makers stop-hunting the shorts. Theyve been trying to get me for what is it, nearly an hour. They get worn now eventually. But not gold. They will hunt you down 247Note
At their little grubby pre-session meeting the market-makers would've staged that sell-off into the top of topping pattern. " Asia will have no volume, once it climbs the 2-top around 2580, price will stall on thin volume then we will send it south in 2 seconds. Well unfortunately they have a couple of pain in the arse shorters. Note
Whilst they are motoring up to take out my legitimate trade short. I took some big positions Long. News wires say Gold is going up. Lets see what the grubs doNote
you gotta laugh.their momentum run to my short put gold in the long path. making either way. slow down here in price until 2606 selly order blocksNote
I just wanted to give the heads-up, don't think that this chart is a bullish flag, you might be mistaken, I went Short again when the 2nd rally stalled. So I stack up long and short as a hedge, because I've had a gut-full of the unethical manipulation of price on lower volumes in the Asian session. What I really dislike is that the gold-people, market maker muppets, have as such forbidden it to go short on gold/silver and the larger your short order the more they dislike it. Even for legitimate short-trades like today where I went Long twice, piling in my hard earned capital to support the Long theory and then twice when the rally's end on what looks like okay volume, the gruby market maker muppets at Gold take another disliking to a Short on price weakness. I won't be trading Asian session gold anymore, not when they manipulate price and attempt to manipulate retail traders who go short. I go short rarely. On price weakness.
Note
Below 2588 is an Mtop breach lower...looks like.Note
a break here of the neck at 2588.50 will usually mean a slight push lower, then a sharp fake move back to the upside. 3/4 back up there and Dump lower very shar\ply
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