Long

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING #3, BASE CASE 4000 THEN 2725

This continues directly from #2, so if you need background read previous posts. You are not going to understand what I am doing if you don't have background. Otherwise, I said previously that I would cover this move until price checks 100 down from the high. Well it looks like it's going to be 3065 Wednesday before FOMC and then 2945-2955 on Thursday 3/20. That completes the setup for a 4000 high. In doing so, price would destroy the 10-20-40 year long term mean reversion setup at 2220-2580. This means that the THE NOVEMBER 2025 LOW end of this year is 2725.

This also means that this coverage stops Thursday 3/20. I will post details for post #4 should you be interested in that. Post #4 is a coverage from 3/21 to 7/10. Why July 10? I expect 4000 on July 10th.

Note

Note

7:59 AM ET after 3029.xx new all time high..

1) to get a double top you first need A SINGLE TOP
2) remember that Friday's goal was 3030-3033
3) and Monday's tatget was originally 3060-3065
4) if that was true there would have been a check to 3000 and immediately move for 3120 after FOMC by "very early Thursday"
5) we missed Friday Sunday and Monday targets
6) now the short term has to catch up to the medium term and it must do it TODAY!
7) with a tag of 3055 in the next 6 hours as favorite

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8) in theory we don't have a "single top" until we see a significant reversal from 3055
9) that is not knowable until London opens Wed
10) or basically 20 hours from now
11) so technically the on course favorite would be trend continuation
12) but that decision does not get made until Tokyo session tonight

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13) FOMC is tomorrow
14) experience says there should be profit taking
15) which can't happen here without this setup playing out

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16) in chart above from my phone at 9:08 AM ET after 3036.xx new ATH
17) that's what it looks like, darkest blue the route it should take from 8 min bars
18) but price is moving faster
19) implying 3055 top after 10:30 but before 12:00, so in 3 hours

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12:15 PM ET, 3033.40 after stalling at 3038.xx at NY OPEN and...

20) it's not going to look like that
21) and it's definitely not done
22) so there are 2 questions
23) what is next immediately and then
24) what is next tomorrow
25) at this hour, this double top is not panning out
26) please be aware that if double top fails to pan out
27) it is going to be trend continuation

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4:00 PM ET, NY CLOSE, 3035.XX and leaves no clue ..

28) so we DO NOT HAVE A TOP, therefore cannot develop a double top in time for FOMC
29) that leaves 2 routes we have to contend with
30) the trend continuation staircase (I am not a fan)
31) and some strange pattern I still cannot see
32) the first one is easy, just watch your lines like this:

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21) the other route requires me to go through the 10 sets of trend maps
22) will add if I see anything

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6:47 PM ET, 3033.93, in chart above, we make the decision between blue and black tonight
a) depending on how much 2-way vol we get before FOMC
b) if the the 2-way vol is minimal (meaning few zig zag) then the floor is close to 3000
c) vice versa if we get moderate zig zag, then the floor is 2965-2985
d) because it's getting really hard to see how bears can make it under 2965

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7:26 PM ET... and let me remind you that
- when I stated January 1st at 2590-2605 that this was THE ENTRY FOR 3850...
- I don't know if you listened or not
- but I can tell you now, THIS COMING CHECKDOWN TO 2965-3005 ZONE
- which odds are 15/85 Thursday vs Friday
- IS THE ENTRY FOR 4000
- so please do not f- around

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5) so all that's knowable is we hit that high tomorrow
6) very likely ahead of FOMC... with NO obvious top setup
7) that is all I have right now

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8) 3/19 WED, 1:47 AM 3042.XX new all time high again and...
9) that's what it looks like in red chart above
10) this should stall out 3044-47 drop to 33 in the morning
11) and zig zag to FOMC vertical move up reaction to 3075
12) this will raise the floor to current channel bottom and previous channel ceiling, roughly 3005

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13) and that's all the retrace we can get
14) so now it's 70 retrace max,
15) then giant staircases to 3270++++++

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9:06 AM 3037.xx, stalled last night at 44.xx but reversed to previous 3022 floor...

1) too late to create enough 2 way vol
2) but drops the favored closer to 3068 after FOMC
3) but the range has also pushed to 3081
4) so means nothing overall

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12:31 PM ET, continuing in chart above w/ FOMC in 89 min...

8) this could also be something like this if it's a true mirror image of faded red route
9) so...

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10) I am calling the reasonable route with blue outcome
11) but its up to price if it wants to be reasonable

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12) chart above is dark blue zoomed in...
13) it is FED day so surprises are par for the course
14) so becareful, otherwise I'll add more if I have anything to add
15) in theory, if it's 3075-3081 tomorrow...
16) the incoming correction we keep waiting for is either Friday OR LATER ...
17) how much later?
18) not sure, but it should be by 3/28
19) so that's all I have right now

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5:02 PM ET, after market closed 3046.xx and here's what it means..

1) I cannot see a pull back setup
2) so the 3250-3270 target for 4/11
3) must be 3250 by SUNDAY 3/30
4) so that's what I see

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5) so THE ENTRY FOR 3850, 4000, maybe 4150 is NOW
6) here's what I am working on for now to 3/30

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8:38 PM ET, SO HERE'S #4:

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPERDETAILING #4, 3250 BY 3/28-4/4

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