Gold SpotShort
12.18 Gold intraday operation strategy
Updated
12.18 Gold intraday operation strategy
Yesterday, gold ushered in a repressive technical correction and fell in a volatile consolidation. The European market was under pressure and weakened rapidly at the 2658 mark. The US market fluctuated downwards and pierced the 2633 mark, stabilizing and closing with shock. The daily K-line closed negative. The overall short-term long and short gold price is around 2633- 2665 shock, short-term gold price In an extremely weak short position, friends who have followed my TradingView can see that the recent trend is dominated by rebound short selling. Today we continue to treat it with a rebound short selling mentality and continue to focus on the upper 2656-2665 line suppression. If the rebound does not break, continue short selling. Today, we continue to treat it with a rebound shorting mentality, continue to pay attention to the suppression of the 2656-2665 line above, and continue to short if the rebound does not break.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce the interest rate decision and economic forecast summary. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Investors will pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further judge future policy trends. The Federal Reserve's updated economic forecasts and dot plots are also the focus of the market, as they may reshape expectations for the interest rate trajectory in 2025 and 2026. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday with a 99% chance. In addition, investors are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2025. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold tends to perform well.
From the current 4-hour analysis, focus on the 2656-2665 first-line suppression at the top, and the 2625-2630 first-line support at the bottom. In terms of operation, the main focus is on rebound short selling. The mid-line bulls will wait and see and move less, pursue orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold rebounds to 2658-2665, short 2671, stop loss 2671, target 2635-2642;
Yesterday, gold ushered in a repressive technical correction and fell in a volatile consolidation. The European market was under pressure and weakened rapidly at the 2658 mark. The US market fluctuated downwards and pierced the 2633 mark, stabilizing and closing with shock. The daily K-line closed negative. The overall short-term long and short gold price is around 2633- 2665 shock, short-term gold price In an extremely weak short position, friends who have followed my TradingView can see that the recent trend is dominated by rebound short selling. Today we continue to treat it with a rebound short selling mentality and continue to focus on the upper 2656-2665 line suppression. If the rebound does not break, continue short selling. Today, we continue to treat it with a rebound shorting mentality, continue to pay attention to the suppression of the 2656-2665 line above, and continue to short if the rebound does not break.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce the interest rate decision and economic forecast summary. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Investors will pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further judge future policy trends. The Federal Reserve's updated economic forecasts and dot plots are also the focus of the market, as they may reshape expectations for the interest rate trajectory in 2025 and 2026. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday with a 99% chance. In addition, investors are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2025. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold tends to perform well.
From the current 4-hour analysis, focus on the 2656-2665 first-line suppression at the top, and the 2625-2630 first-line support at the bottom. In terms of operation, the main focus is on rebound short selling. The mid-line bulls will wait and see and move less, pursue orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold rebounds to 2658-2665, short 2671, stop loss 2671, target 2635-2642;
Trade active
News:
On Wednesday (December 18), the market focused on the upcoming interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the related economic outlook. The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, the third consecutive rate cut, which will affect the trend of the US dollar in the short term and have an indirect impact on other market assets. The market currently generally expects that the Fed will further slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025.
Although the Fed may announce a 25 basis point rate cut tonight, the market is still concerned about the future interest rate path. If the Fed's dot plot predicts a slowdown in rate cuts in 2025, the US dollar may continue to strengthen, thus exerting downward pressure on gold and silver. For gold, the strength of the US dollar will make it more expensive in other currencies, suppressing its demand. On the other hand, if the Fed's rhetoric is more dovish, indicating that the pace of future rate cuts may be slower, precious metals may rebound.
Gold trend analysis:
Gold closed yesterday with a long lower shadow and a small shadow, which combined with Monday's pattern to form a small "rubbing pattern". If this pattern is at a relatively high level with a continuous rise, or a relatively low level with a wave of decline, it is a reversal signal. will be strong; if it is in the middle of a wave of rising or falling, it will continue to rise. The probability of continued decline may be higher; from the current point of view, after the two major negative pressures last Thursday and Friday, it is just a continuation at this time, so the probability of continued decline will be higher; at the same time, the 5-day moving average turns to the direction If the market pulls up first today, it will easily fall back to the 5-day moving average and below; Of course, if there is another sustained sideways movement in a certain range like November 26 to December 6, it may weaken the downward momentum; at this time, the 5-day moving average resistance is 2655, The 10-day moving average resistance is 2662. If it rises, it still maintains a short-term bearish correction. For support, continue to pay attention to the lower track of the recent parallel channel and the lower track of a previous rising channel, which correspond to 2628-26 and 2609 respectively; only if it effectively breaks through 2609 and closes far below this position, can it open up further downward space;
On the 4-hour level, the overall movement of the Asian and European sessions today is very small. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate announcement and Powell's speech in the second half of the night; continue to pay attention to the gains and losses of the 10-day moving average. If it closes not far from this moving average, or below it, the overall pattern of slow decline is still maintained; only a big positive closing above it can effectively break through, but the next resistance middle track is not far away, just at 2655; therefore, in the short term, gold is still under great pressure. Although there are some signs of bottom divergence, the rebound strength is still not large; it looks weak below 2650, and it looks volatile below 2664.
Short-term short orders can be intervened near 2650 in the evening. Do not consider any long orders before the event, unless the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates, and only consider a wave of ultra-short-term long orders. And if the Fed decides not to cut interest rates, then you can go short on gold and make short-term plans at the mid-line level. If the overall movement range is not large, it may still fluctuate between 2680-2600;
Trade closed: target reached
Yesterday, the technical aspect of gold was suppressed below 2650 throughout the day, showing a weak and volatile trend. The U.S. market fell slightly and fell back to the 2632 mark, oscillating sideways. After the interest rate meeting, it quickly penetrated the 2600 mark downwards, forming a unilateral short downward trend. The final price of gold closed at 2 The closing below 600 suppressed the long-term decline, and the overall gold price has completely entered a weak unilateral short position. In the first few days of this week, I gave short selling trading strategies. I believe friends who follow my TradingView community can see that, today Continue to short on the day's rebound.
From the 4-hour analysis, today's upper resistance is around 2625-30. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall. The lower target is still concerned about breaking the bottom. The short-term long and short strength watershed is 2640. The daily level is under pressure below this position and continues to maintain the main short rhythm of the rebound. The counter-trend long orders are not involved.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold rebounds to 2625-2632, short position, stop loss 2637, target 2605-2600;
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