Gold is losing steam, dropping toward the +2% EMA zone — a bearish breakdown is likely.
A Sell Stop at 3325 targets 3249 with strong downside momentum and 82% confidence.
1. Update on Price Deviation from EMA 200 (lower pane):
The orange line in your deviation chart is screaming a clear message — we’re currently seeing a deviation of approx. +1.28% to +1.29% ABOVE the 200 EMA. That’s shallow as hell compared to the recent highs of +7%, and it’s now hugging the +2% red threshold like it’s begging for a breakdown.
Price has consistently fallen from overheated highs, breaching all major deviation zones. That’s a bearish signal.
⸻
2. Price Action & Market Bias (1D View):
Let’s tie that to your daily candlestick chart:
Price Action Patterns:
• Recent candles: Clean consistent downtrend, with minimal upper wicks = selling pressure dominating.
• Most recent candle = bearish marubozu: A strong full-bodied candle closing at or near lows — momentum is on the bear’s side.
Volume:
• Volume is slightly below average (31.19K vs 42.67K MA), but consistent. Bears are in control without needing huge force yet. That’s dangerous because if volume spikes, the drop could accelerate.
Support / Resistance:
• Immediate resistance: 3379.38 (yellow dashed line)
• Next major support: 3315.35 (Labeled Low)
• Structural level below that? Likely 3250-3280 range, but that’s a knife zone.
⸻
3. Trend, Momentum & Wave Structure:
• Short-term trend: Bearish
• EMA-based deviation + candle structure = Momentum fading fast
• No correction wave in sight. This is likely the impulsive leg of a larger correction, potentially Wave 3 if we map Elliott.
⸻
Hypothetical Trade Setup (Day Trade)
ORDER TYPE:
Sell Stop
ENTRY:
3325.00
TAKE PROFIT:
3249.00
STOP LOSS:
3385.00
CONFIDENCE:
82%
Justification:
• Price is slipping below +2% EMA deviation — historical snapbacks suggest more downside coming.
• Strong bearish momentum with zero bullish reversal candles.
• Room down to the next fib zone and support at 3250ish.
• Using a Sell Stop ensures we only enter after confirmation of breakdown.
⸻
Stay sharp. Markets are bleeding, and there’s juice here for a sniper setup. This is hypothetical — not real trading advice. Manage your risk or get smoked.
A Sell Stop at 3325 targets 3249 with strong downside momentum and 82% confidence.
1. Update on Price Deviation from EMA 200 (lower pane):
The orange line in your deviation chart is screaming a clear message — we’re currently seeing a deviation of approx. +1.28% to +1.29% ABOVE the 200 EMA. That’s shallow as hell compared to the recent highs of +7%, and it’s now hugging the +2% red threshold like it’s begging for a breakdown.
Price has consistently fallen from overheated highs, breaching all major deviation zones. That’s a bearish signal.
⸻
2. Price Action & Market Bias (1D View):
Let’s tie that to your daily candlestick chart:
Price Action Patterns:
• Recent candles: Clean consistent downtrend, with minimal upper wicks = selling pressure dominating.
• Most recent candle = bearish marubozu: A strong full-bodied candle closing at or near lows — momentum is on the bear’s side.
Volume:
• Volume is slightly below average (31.19K vs 42.67K MA), but consistent. Bears are in control without needing huge force yet. That’s dangerous because if volume spikes, the drop could accelerate.
Support / Resistance:
• Immediate resistance: 3379.38 (yellow dashed line)
• Next major support: 3315.35 (Labeled Low)
• Structural level below that? Likely 3250-3280 range, but that’s a knife zone.
⸻
3. Trend, Momentum & Wave Structure:
• Short-term trend: Bearish
• EMA-based deviation + candle structure = Momentum fading fast
• No correction wave in sight. This is likely the impulsive leg of a larger correction, potentially Wave 3 if we map Elliott.
⸻
Hypothetical Trade Setup (Day Trade)
ORDER TYPE:
Sell Stop
ENTRY:
3325.00
TAKE PROFIT:
3249.00
STOP LOSS:
3385.00
CONFIDENCE:
82%
Justification:
• Price is slipping below +2% EMA deviation — historical snapbacks suggest more downside coming.
• Strong bearish momentum with zero bullish reversal candles.
• Room down to the next fib zone and support at 3250ish.
• Using a Sell Stop ensures we only enter after confirmation of breakdown.
⸻
Stay sharp. Markets are bleeding, and there’s juice here for a sniper setup. This is hypothetical — not real trading advice. Manage your risk or get smoked.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.