🔍 Executive Summary
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to hold firm above the $3,370 handle, supported by a bullish macro narrative and confirmed technical structure on the 4-hour chart. Amid dovish expectations from the Fed and soft labor market data out of the U.S., bullion maintains its premium as a hedge, attracting institutional flow in line with the rate-cut narrative for Q3–Q4.
Today’s market profile suggests a high-probability long setup, anchored in a fresh demand structure just below current price, supported by unmitigated institutional order flow, premium discount levels, and clear liquidity sweeps.
🎯 Directional Bias: Bullish–Transitional
While price is consolidating around $3,378, the underlying structure favors a bullish continuation. A Change of Character (CHoCH) has been confirmed on the 4H chart, suggesting a shift from corrective to impulsive intent. Liquidity remains stacked below recent equal lows, and the premium-to-discount array strongly favors buy-side execution.
🟩 Primary Buy Zone (GOLDEN ZONE)
Entry: $3,350–$3,355 | Stop-Loss: < $3,340 | Targets: $3,400 / $3,430
This zone represents the highest institutional quality setup of the day. It aligns with:
A fresh unmitigated Rally-Base-Rally Demand Zone
A refined Bullish Order Block within optimal trade entry (OTE) discount range
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) aligned with internal BOS leg
Equal Lows (EQL) sweep below $3,355, targeting liquidity
Overlap with volume imbalance, suggesting a clean institutional leg
Clear CHoCH confirming bullish structure
Kill Zone Alignment: Asia–London overlap, pre-London accumulation
This zone is statistically favored for execution by both Smart Money and legacy institutions, given its confluence density and asymmetrical risk profile.
🟥 Primary Sell Zone
Entry: $3,385–$3,390 | Stop-Loss: > $3,400 | Targets: $3,350 / $3,320
A valid counter-trend liquidity sweep opportunity, located above short-term equal highs near the psychological $3,400 level. Key confluences include:
Drop-Base-Drop Supply Zone
Overlapping FVG + OB in premium zone
Alignment with OTE premium retracement
Liquidity cluster near recent EQH
Structural resistance + round-number magnetism
Execution window during London–NY overlap
This zone is valid only for short-duration scalps or short-term reversal positioning.
🟢 Fallback Buy Zone (If Primary is invalidated)
Entry: $3,320–$3,325 | SL: < $3,310 | TPs: $3,400 / $3,430
A deeper mitigation zone with reduced confluence but adequate historical support. This zone captures:
A mitigated OB inside Demand
0.618 Fib retracement from internal BOS
Liquidity sweep potential of a broader EQL stack
Minor structure support
Use only if the market sweeps the primary zone and rebalances deeper.
🔻 Fallback Sell Zone (If Primary Sell fails)
Entry: $3,410–$3,415 | SL: > $3,420 | TP: $3,350
Set well above prior resistance, this extended zone aligns with:
Extended Supply + Unmitigated OB
FVG inside premium OTE zone
Recent accumulation liquidity trap (potential fakeout zone)
Session mispricing during NY–Asia rollover
Use only if price impulsively breaches the $3,400 psychological barrier and stalls near the top of an exhaustion leg.
🌐 Institutional Cross-Validation
Citi Group has upgraded its 3-month Gold forecast to $3,500, citing weakening U.S. macro data and elevated inflation expectations as bullish catalysts.
Reuters and FXStreet confirm Gold's hold near 1-week highs with sentiment strongly skewed toward continued demand amid Fed rate-cut odds exceeding 90%.
TradingView pro charts show confluence with OB/FVG zones at both $3,355 and $3,390, validating both primary zones technically.
📌 Final Notes
Action Bias:
Aggressively long from $3,350–$3,355 with tight structure-defined invalidation.
Hold shorts only from $3,385–$3,390 under strict reversal logic.
Risk Reminder:
All zones are built from 4H structural flow only. Intraday volatility outside kill zones may distort price behavior — wait for displacements and internal breaks before entering. Manage partials at 1.272 extension and hold runners toward 1.618 only if structure confirms.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to hold firm above the $3,370 handle, supported by a bullish macro narrative and confirmed technical structure on the 4-hour chart. Amid dovish expectations from the Fed and soft labor market data out of the U.S., bullion maintains its premium as a hedge, attracting institutional flow in line with the rate-cut narrative for Q3–Q4.
Today’s market profile suggests a high-probability long setup, anchored in a fresh demand structure just below current price, supported by unmitigated institutional order flow, premium discount levels, and clear liquidity sweeps.
🎯 Directional Bias: Bullish–Transitional
While price is consolidating around $3,378, the underlying structure favors a bullish continuation. A Change of Character (CHoCH) has been confirmed on the 4H chart, suggesting a shift from corrective to impulsive intent. Liquidity remains stacked below recent equal lows, and the premium-to-discount array strongly favors buy-side execution.
🟩 Primary Buy Zone (GOLDEN ZONE)
Entry: $3,350–$3,355 | Stop-Loss: < $3,340 | Targets: $3,400 / $3,430
This zone represents the highest institutional quality setup of the day. It aligns with:
A fresh unmitigated Rally-Base-Rally Demand Zone
A refined Bullish Order Block within optimal trade entry (OTE) discount range
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) aligned with internal BOS leg
Equal Lows (EQL) sweep below $3,355, targeting liquidity
Overlap with volume imbalance, suggesting a clean institutional leg
Clear CHoCH confirming bullish structure
Kill Zone Alignment: Asia–London overlap, pre-London accumulation
This zone is statistically favored for execution by both Smart Money and legacy institutions, given its confluence density and asymmetrical risk profile.
🟥 Primary Sell Zone
Entry: $3,385–$3,390 | Stop-Loss: > $3,400 | Targets: $3,350 / $3,320
A valid counter-trend liquidity sweep opportunity, located above short-term equal highs near the psychological $3,400 level. Key confluences include:
Drop-Base-Drop Supply Zone
Overlapping FVG + OB in premium zone
Alignment with OTE premium retracement
Liquidity cluster near recent EQH
Structural resistance + round-number magnetism
Execution window during London–NY overlap
This zone is valid only for short-duration scalps or short-term reversal positioning.
🟢 Fallback Buy Zone (If Primary is invalidated)
Entry: $3,320–$3,325 | SL: < $3,310 | TPs: $3,400 / $3,430
A deeper mitigation zone with reduced confluence but adequate historical support. This zone captures:
A mitigated OB inside Demand
0.618 Fib retracement from internal BOS
Liquidity sweep potential of a broader EQL stack
Minor structure support
Use only if the market sweeps the primary zone and rebalances deeper.
🔻 Fallback Sell Zone (If Primary Sell fails)
Entry: $3,410–$3,415 | SL: > $3,420 | TP: $3,350
Set well above prior resistance, this extended zone aligns with:
Extended Supply + Unmitigated OB
FVG inside premium OTE zone
Recent accumulation liquidity trap (potential fakeout zone)
Session mispricing during NY–Asia rollover
Use only if price impulsively breaches the $3,400 psychological barrier and stalls near the top of an exhaustion leg.
🌐 Institutional Cross-Validation
Citi Group has upgraded its 3-month Gold forecast to $3,500, citing weakening U.S. macro data and elevated inflation expectations as bullish catalysts.
Reuters and FXStreet confirm Gold's hold near 1-week highs with sentiment strongly skewed toward continued demand amid Fed rate-cut odds exceeding 90%.
TradingView pro charts show confluence with OB/FVG zones at both $3,355 and $3,390, validating both primary zones technically.
📌 Final Notes
Action Bias:
Aggressively long from $3,350–$3,355 with tight structure-defined invalidation.
Hold shorts only from $3,385–$3,390 under strict reversal logic.
Risk Reminder:
All zones are built from 4H structural flow only. Intraday volatility outside kill zones may distort price behavior — wait for displacements and internal breaks before entering. Manage partials at 1.272 extension and hold runners toward 1.618 only if structure confirms.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.